Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Leinster literally did that a few weeks ago and before they lost no one said boo.

Fair enough. I thought it was a bad idea as well just on the basis that it was a knockout game.

We're relying a lot on Sexton not only staying injury-free (he's averaged 59 mins a game in the 10 games he played this season... he had twice as few mins as the previous season), but also maintaining a higher standard of form than the other challengers.

Ordinarily you'd say he won't have a problem with that... but he will be 38 and has played relatively little rugby all year and won't have played in almost 6 months. He better hit that ground running, no more than anyone else I guess.

No matter what way you paint it, it's not ideal. I still wouldn't be wrapping him up or resting him during the tournament, take each game as it comes.

For obvious reasons it might make sense to make an exception of Sexton, as I've pointed out. But I'd also like to see the other tens with as many minutes under their belts as possible heading to the 1/4s.

So I just played around with some combinations there, from a 33 of (players in bold are the best 23, that will face SA in round 3):

You can shuffle them around to make:

Went with two scrum-halves to bring Kilcoyne in to make sure Porter only has to play a single game in rounds 1 and 2.

Stronger squad for Tonga, as the team comes together for the big one in round 3.

Bulk of the SA 23 get both a start and a bench in the first two rounds. I'm giving Ryan, Porter, Doris, POM, Ringrose, Lowe and Keenan only a single start each, mostly given injury history or because they play in positions we don't have huge depth. Sexton gets a single bench spot for Tonga.

This also mostly keeps the primary units from the SA 23 together - front row, locks, back row, midfield and most of the back 3.

I'm giving Crowley the start for both warm ups. Could be Byrne if Faz decides he's the backup 10.

Only having done this, I realise that we have no specialist 7 to backup vdF, so I put Prendergast there. Against Romania it won't matter too much.

My guess at the RWC 33-man squad and what the 23 will be for each pool match:

1-15: Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, O’Mahony, Van der Flier, Doris, Gibson-Park, Sexton, Lowe, Henshaw, Ringrose, Hansen, Keenan.

16-23: Kelleher, Healy, Bealham, Henderson, Conan, Murray, Crowley, Aki.

24-33: Herring, Kilcoyne, O’Toole, Baird, Coombes, Prendergast, Casey, Byrne, McCloskey, O’Brien.

V Romania: Fully rotated as much as possible.

Kilcoyne, Herring, O’Toole, Baird, Henderson, Coombes, Prendergast, Conan, Casey, Byrne, O’Brien, McCloskey, Aki, Hansen, Crowley.

Bench: Kelleher, Healy, Bealham, Beirne, Van der Flier, Murray, Ringrose, Keenan.

V Tonga: 3 options,

A) As above, full-strength 1-15, and 16-23, (i.e.Porter..Aki).

B) Rotated full-strength 23,

Healy, Kelleher, Bealham, Henderson, Ryan, Doris, O’Mahony, Conan, Murray, Crowley, Lowe, Aki, Henshaw, Hansen, Keenan.

Bench: Sheehan, Porter, Furlong, Beirne, Van der Flier, Gibson-Park, Sexton, Ringrose.

C) Fully rotated as much as possible.

Kilcoyne, Herring, O’Toole, Baird, Henderson, Coombes, Prendergast, Conan, Murray, Crowley, Lowe, McCloskey, Aki, Henshaw, O’Brien.

Bench: Kelleher, Healy, Bealham, Ryan, O’Mahony, Casey, Byrne, Keenan.

V South Africa: Full-strength.

V Scotland: 3 options, depending on pool results. Might have to go full-strength if not already through, could rotate if through already, and could rotate heavily if through and not worried about guys being match-fit for the quarter-final.

A piece of trivia related to the above,

England, 2007, and France, 2011, both lost pool matches and still made it to the final, only to lose to the same team that beat them in the pool game, South Africa and New Zealand respectively.

I’ve almost the same 33, except opted for Casey as a third scrum-half over Nash as an extra winger. I’d use Ringrose and Henshaw as wing cover instead, with O’Brien and Crowley as fullback cover.

I’ve also put Prendergast at 7 versus Romania.

We have the exact same 23 for SA. Though slight numbering difference, Ryan 5 would be tight side lock, Lowe 11 left wing, Hansen 14 right wing.

I suspect Farrell will use Byrne as number 2 ten with Crowley as his backup where Sexton isn’t starting and probably Crowley subbing for Sexton too.

I doubt that in any RWC fixture since 1987, have we fielded a team with no first choice player starting and I'd be shocked if it happened this time either. Even simply for the fact that some guys are going to need game time. We've only three warm up matches and at least one, if not two, will be used to get a look at some of the wider squad guys fighting to get a spot in the 33. Even against Russia in 2019, we had Sexton, POM, Earls, RK and Ringrose starting.

We're not going to go into the SA game (who will be fully match fit after 6 tests across July and August) with front liners having played about 1-2 games in about 4 months.

I don't see why you wouldn't bring 3 scrum halves with the increased squad size

Adding to that trivia, England also lost to the ABs in 1991 and then made the final.