A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

im sure our politicians have a plan b in place n we're not a one trick pony!

I'm sure we simply won't do it. We've been pretty consistent in our stance on CT

It is significant because a number of small regional banks mainly in Italy do not have the reserves in the bank to pay the loans. The vast majority have ample funds to pay and ample to keep borrowing, these small regional banks relied on those loans to keep going basically.

They have assets like mortgages and bonds but they will get in a worse state if they have to sell them. With 1 trillion of liquidity being sucked out the banking system banks are going to be a lot wary who they borrow to. Maybe government steps in to help out, but someone will have to.

if you are saying they don’t have the sufficient funds then the physical payment is not an issue as they would have been failing stress testing and LCR ratios for a long time and the regulator would have already shut them down or forced them to merge. It’s not like in the USA where regional banks are not monitored.

Info all there on the ECB website. Would need to be a very small bank Or a branch of a non-Eu bank and even then they would still have more regulation to comply with than US regional banks.

Amazing really what happened in one year.

UK interest rates up .5%

Netherlands in recession

Ok. Good luck

Not sure what kind of recession that is but they have an unemployment rate of 3.5% at the moment.

Given how ridiculously complex global economics is, with so many factors at play and feedback loops interacting with each other in impossible to model ways, it takes some amount of chutzpah to predict that that one single future event is going to have a significant effect in one way. Almost conspiratorial to be honest....

I am interested to see how increased interest rates affect the US v UK or even Ireland. In the US, the vast majority are on fixed rate mortgages and mostly <5%, so I don't see the rate increases reducing the disposable income of americans and reducing demand like it will in the UK or Ireland. We will need to see unemployment in the US to get that last bit of inflation, down to target 2%.

Never a truer word spoken. Even the experts in charge got everything wrong. Let's have a look.

We need to get inflation to 2% - Let's print loads of cash and give to the PIGS that will do it.

Inflation is not going up - Let's print more cash and give to the PIGS that will do it, it's not as if interest rates will go up or anything.

Oh no we have a pandemic - Lets print more cash

Inflation is not going up - Let's print more cash and give to the PIGS.

Inflation is at 6% and and we have negative rates - It's just transitory it will come down soon don't worry

Putin has invaded Ukraine - Let's sanction them and destroy it's economy

Inflation is going up - Let's rise interest rates to 0% it's just transitory remember

Russia are still attacking - Let's put more sanctions on the worlds largest energy and food exporter and seize it's cash and citizens assets

Inflation is going crazy especially food and energy - Let's raise interest rates to 1%

Russia has cut off gas - Let's pay 5 times more from our American friends instead.

Germany's economic minister say's the only reason they were competitive is because of cheap Russian energy - Let's sanction oil as well so we have to pay 50% more while our competitors buy it 50% cheaper

Inflation is going crazy especially energy and food - Let's raise interest rates to 2%

Pipeline blows up - Putin did it. Prices go crazy US sells gas 10 times more expensive.

Let's use Russian funds and give it to Ukraine - 20 new countries apply to join Brics and use their own currencies to trade to avoid sanctions

There will be no recession - Germany say's it is in recession and energy intensive companies start to move to America and China and exports drop off a cliff.

Inflation is coming down - Still too high raise rates to 3%

More countries say they are in recession - We need to raise interest rates to get inflation to 2%

Mortgage and national debt costs double - We need to raise interest rates to get inflation to 2%

To be continued

Don't want to derail any "wishing upon a recession" talk too much (will stop it after this post) but I do not think South Africa will prevent him coming to the meeting if Russia insists, and (unfortunately) they won't arrest him!

I think it would still cause them embarrassment because they signed up to the ICC. It is just a headache and would imagine the "BICS" and any others attending the world-changing meeting may prefer Putin dials into it on Zoom!

Uk banks have agreed to delay repossession by 12 months