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2022/3 season thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Put simply here. The immediate opportunity cost is next to zero. Sure, this will suck in 2026 but you already did the Durant trade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Draymond opts out and hits UFA



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭Carcharodon


    Was always going to happen, media making it a bit sensational but he is just looking for a longer term deal, it seems like he wants it warriors but I guess the Warriors are in a hard spot as the tax implications will be quite significant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,704 ✭✭✭Corvo


    Yeah it’s already reported he wants a deal that falls in line with Curry’s time wise, likely a 3 year / 75m



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    There is such a thing as having too many offensive weapons. It can create disharmony in a team too.

    There's also the proven model which is defense wins championships.

    Miami were held under 100 points in their four losses.

    The Celtics were held under 100 points in the Warriors four wins the year before.

    You'll have the odd year where teams both score high in the finals but it's normally great defense that wins championships.

    The Sun's should break the bank to get an elite defender instead of another offensive player.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    That’s all fine theory but, as is explained above, they didn’t have any other “break the bank” moves. This is the deal they could do; or else they keep Paul or else they sign a mid level player.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    You’re (as always) entitled to your opinion. I, most here, and most of the non “hot take” media think otherwise. Some have even suggested they’re in a worse position because they’ve removed depth.

    It looks like they’re constructing a roster of individuals, not a complementary “team” - and there’s a huge difference. Anyone watching Denver this past season will see the value of having a team designed to work together. The fact Isiah Thomas ( one of the worst GMs ever) is advising Ishbia on personnel is bad enough, but Ishbia in the comments and podcasts I’ve heard seems to think you just throw a few big names together and it just works. In short, I don’t trust the management of this franchise when it comes to player evaluation.

    They have no defence bar DA, who by all accounts they’re looking to flip. The problem is there’s not much of a market for him. Worse again, they have little perimeter defence - arguably the most important defensive slot in today’s guard and wing driven league.

    Beal has only been successful when he’s the 1 or 2 option. He’ll be - by some distance - the 3 in Phoenix. And I don’t see enough versatility in his game to adapt.

    You now have 3 incredibly high usage rate players with very differing efficiency ratings on the court at the same time. Historically, that does not work without someone sacrificing enormously. There really is only one ball. I’m sure there’ll be days when they blow out teams and all 3 score 25-30+ and it’ll look great, but when it doesn’t….what’s the reaction like? What’s the effect on chemistry?

    I applaud Phoenix “going all in”. I just think they’ve made an absolute balls of their decision(s) on who to go all in with.

    IMO, Denver are still far better than PHX.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Just because you can make a move doesn’t mean it’s the right move.


    They could have done nothing, waited until Jan and see who is available, who wants out of their situation then, who is asking for a trade etc. A lot can and usually does happen in a few months in the NBA. Beal is a crazy move even without the no-trade. Now they’re stuck with him. There’s more than one reason the trade market for him was crap.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Denver didn't play anyone in this playoff run who forced them to drop guys from their rotation. MPJ not starting is about as hairy as it got.

    Their toughest series was against Phoenix, and Beal would absolutely help them if you reran that contest. Denver would have to make rotational sacrifices because you have that 3rd elite offensive player; but also Durant could potentially be freed up from offensive load to focus more defensively. And he's a very good defender when he can focus on it.

    If you look at their series specifically against Denver, they got better. Whether they got as much improvement? Different question. But the opportunity cost here is very low. That's the mistake in analysis.

    Finally, Beal makes the regular season easier. Having a 3rd high usage guy smooths out sitting, injuries, etc.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    I was wondering what angle you’d take on dismissing Denver’s title, that’s an interesting one 🙄

    No, Beal wouldn’t help them if you ran that series back. You seem to think he adds 30points without taking anything away from Booker and KD, who had two if the all time highest scoring duo games in play off history in their 2 wins. There is only one ball! And that’s before we mention he’s a sieve on the other end. Tell me - who is guarding Jokic? Who is guarding Murray?

    No one is saying the opportunity cost isn’t low, why did you say people are? I applaud them for going all in, but the fit here is awful.

    No one is saying Beal is trash.

    The problem is he doesn’t fit. His game is broadly too similar to Booker’s and KD’s.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    How much are you projecting their average game score to go up by this year?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    It's not dismissing their title. They beat everyone's brains out, you can only beat who is put in front of you, etc.

    But they won in 5, 6, 4 and 5. Nobody caused them difficulties to the point where players were dropped from the rotation. That's just a fact.

    Beal adds 30 points, more spacing, more range and frees up Durant to defend with more energy. As Nate Duncan said in his podcast reacting to the trade, people may be surprised at how well he defends when he's on a competing team.

    Look we'll see what happens, they just lost to Denver and they've pulled a lever with a coaching change and significant addition. Running it back when you got beat inspite of your top 2 playing really well would be madness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,233 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    If Beal takes the Lakers Westbrook 6th man role of leading the 2nd unit it could work very well, compensating for when Booker or Durant of off court. But its an insanely costly move to have your 6th be one of the highest paid on the roster having cost away your depth.

    Theres only one ball in play so you can hit a point of diminishing returns if you add too many high scoring players which the Suns have just done if those 3 are on court together.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    What type of a question is this? Leaving aside the ridiculousness of asking me that, only two of the players who played over 1k minutes for the Suns last year are likely to be back for next year. It will be an entirely new group around Durant and Booker with a new coaching staff.

    This team just won 45 games and lost in the Western Conference 2nd round. It's not like they **** broke up a Dynasty. They made a massive move at the trade deadline, and they are furthering that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    It’s more than just Simmons. Woj, Windhorst and others saying the same thing.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    If New Orleans move on from Zion they are doing the right thing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,233 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Supposedly its Scoot the Pels want so with Charlotte still appearing unclear on whether or not they are taking him its leaving things up in the air.

    - Pelicans want Scoot

    - Portland want Zion but unless Scoot falls they can't deal as the Pels dont want Miller.

    - Supposedly Charlotte are happy to deal the #2 to the Pelicans for a package based around Ingram + picks but not Zion.

    -The Pels want to keep Ingram but will trade Zion.


    Interesting hours ahead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,087 ✭✭✭✭2smiggy


    is Zion injured and unable to play, or just does not want to play ?


    either way why would anyone take a risk on him for such a high price



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Because maybe you aren't so mad about winning? Jordan and Charlotte have never been too pushed on trying to win as Hornets owner. Zion is a legend in that area of the country, sell some tickets, etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Speaking of Jordan and Charlotte.......has anyone watched the Gamestop short-selling documentary? One of the main hedge fund shorters in that is Gabe Plotkin, who is a co-owner of the hornets and is buying Jordan's shares.

    Well, I went into a deep dive on reddit (and elsewhere) and there's allegations Jordan (a notorious gambler) bet $500million on the Game Stop short through Plotkin's hedge fund......and lost. And Plotkin is collecting, via the Hornets.

    There's loads of info. on it. Obviously the NBA isn't going to want a gambling / billionaire losing control of his team story making the headlines, so this one is very interesting.

    Here's a sample:




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    I'll bet you anything you want Beal does not add 30 points to that team this year.

    There's 2 elite scores on that team already, and he's 3rd by some distance after them. He will not average 30 points a game next year. He's averaged 23 for the last 2 seasons on a crap Washington team where he was option Number 1. He'll be third to eat on this team, not a chance he's averaging 30.

    But as I said, I'll bet you anything you want if you want to out your money where your mouth is on that one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Did it possibly occur to you that they didn't have to remove someone from the rotation BECAUSE they're a well constructed team with little by way of weaknesses?

    I'm not sure what your offensive philosophy is - hunt for mismatches that are so weighted in your favour that you force the opposition to remove a player from the rotation completely? Do you realise how rarely that happens? And when it does, it's usually a non-starter. It's not an effective strategy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Fine Beal won’t add 30ppg, but he’s a guy who can get his for 30 on any given night.

    I don’t know what you mean by offensive philosophies. Teams struggling have to drop players from their rotation. Love got frozen out end of Boston series; DLo played 14 mins against Denver in game 4; Poole played 10 mins against Lakers in game 2; etc

    All different series and different contexts. This happens to everyone in the playoffs, normally. Nobody forced Malone to have to significantly adjust his rotation this year. Incredibly dominant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    I think your second sentence says everything really.

    Middle paragraph,; no it doesn't normally happen. The guys who get frozen out are almost always rotation players and not starters - and they're rotation players for a reason!

    Your last paragraph - Denver were "incredibly dominant", for once we agree! But you think Beal changes that? I don't. And I'm not alone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    You are all about how much more dangerous they will be on offense and how they'll cause huge defensive problems for other teams.

    So I'm simply asking you to give your prediction as to how much their average ppg will improve with Beal.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Compared to what

    What team would I compare them to? Their playoff team barely played together in the regular season



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    No, all my second sentence says is I “don’t know what you mean by offensive philosophies in the context of the point I am making”. Just like I’m not trying to minimise Denver and I don’t need to have projections for every NBA team to hand in June in order to make a point.

    But sure, ‘there’s only one ball’, ‘defense wins championships’, Beal has a bad contract and other winning cliched insights. Good chat.

    We’ll see what happens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Even your buddies and go to reference points LaRoux and Duncan on Dunc’don said it’s a bad move…..🤷‍♂️

    Btw, I like both of them, and their analysis. Not 💩’ing on them at all. But both of them said it’s an awful fit. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️😝

    sure we have to wait and see what happens, but it sure seems like you think you’re right and (almost) everyone else is wrong.

    So far the only people I’ve heard say this is a good move are complete idiots and hot take merchants. #JustSayin’

    Post edited by ButtersSuki on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Compared to the regular season 116 ppg from when Durant joined.

    Will they beat that with Beal's offensive prowess?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Duncan did NOT say it was a bad move. Where are you getting that from?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,984 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    All reports and betting odds suggest Brandon Miller is going #2, we're in for another big draft night I think



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    He absolutely did..

    He said PHX won the trade from “an asset point of view”, but that the fit is bad and that it doesn’t make them better than Denver, which should be their goal.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,704 ✭✭✭Corvo


    He’s probably better rounded but I just think there is something about Scoot that should have him at 2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,984 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Scoot is the more exciting pick but I do think people have forgotten about how good Miller has been.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I can only guess that Scoot's injury history might be a concern for some. There's no other reason he would not be no.2.

    Wembanyama is the clear no.1 but Scoot is just as far ahead of everybody else as Victor is of him.

    I don't think there's ever been a draft when there's been as definitive no.1 and no.2 best players as this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    I'd disagree. I said weeks ago Miller would go 2............you can check back if you want to, this is not some in the moment take.

    Scoot had huge exposure with those Overtime Elite Games in Vega v Wemby. What has he done of note since? He's a 2nd year player in OE and by all accounts there hasn't been much by way of improvement year on year. Miller was by some distance the best player in the NCAA this year.

    I don't think it's close at all TBH. Wemby is head and shoulders over the field, but Henderson is not miles ahead of Miller.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,233 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    The Wizards are blowing things up altogether.

    - Sending Porzingis to Celtics

    - Celtics sending Brogdon to Clippers

    - Wizards getting back only Marcus Morris + draft picks.

    Thats the headliners more will have to be moved around to match salaries.

    Implication 1) of Brogdon going to Clippers means Wizards now probably have to eat Pauls contract. Leaving him free to join Lakers from the buyout matket.

    Implication 2) Celtics solve their multi-guard problem and add a nice big piece to the rotation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,984 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    I'm excited for Porzingis to be back at his best and in a good team, about time he reminded everyone of what he can do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Porzingis had a very good year last year so excited about that. Sad yo see Brogdon go, he was 6th man of the year do it’s a strange one……I assume it’s a health-based call as he does get injured a lot, but still a strange one IMO. You’d have to assume they were looking to move someone else on the roster and money/contract played into it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,087 ✭✭✭✭2smiggy


    Surprisingly Smart gone, but Celtics did get a lot from it. It is a ruthless business/game



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Ah ffs. I’m pretty pissed now tbh. Smart is the heart and soul of that team.

    A great signing for Memphis, but as a Boston fan I’m not happy about losing Smart.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,233 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Yeah I think the OG deal was a better deal.

    But Celtics still get there man.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭Carcharodon


    Was wondering what you would think of it, I haven’t looked at it in depth yet but on the face of it, it’s really hard to say who came out on top, Smart wasn’t great last year to be fair but as you say he is the heart and soul, can’t quantify that, I love Perzingus but will he be healthy ? How will he fair out on defence ? Celtics need to look at that big time.

    I feel like the Celtics needed something to change, who knows what it is but I accept that they needed to do something, Smart should do well on Memphis, I’ll probably hate him now 🤦‍♂️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,984 ✭✭✭✭Osmosis Jones


    Washington's Front Office is having a mare, surely they should be getting at least one of those FRPs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,416 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    They have no leverage in these situations. What are you going to do, hold Porzingis?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    They’re clearing the decks. They’ve already removed their 2 biggest financial outlays and with Kuzma and Paul most likely to follow that’ll be a third and fourth. And they’ve done this in a matter of days.

    if I was a Wizards fan I would have little to complain about tbh. Yes, you could/should have gotten more picks, but they’ll prob have the worst record in the league next year as well as lots of cap space so overall it’s a win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    Oh something had to change but - and I’m being 100% serious here - I’d rather have lost Brown than Smart. You can’t quantify what Smart brings. Boston are weak mentally IMO and losing their toughest player mentally isn’t going to help that. He’s by all accounts the lost popular member of the dressing room too, you really have to wonder could they not have moved someone else. I get they were on the clock (Porzingis had to sign by midnight) but I think this is a bigger loss than the stats alone would indicate. :(

    It’s conversely a great signing for Memphis. They need some maturity in that team and someone who is not afraid to hold guys accountable. Whether ja listens to him or shoots him will be the question.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,704 ✭✭✭Corvo


    Just re KP’s personal contract situation. Would he not have been better off opting out and going into free agency and getting 3-4 year contract?

    with his injury issues, this seems like a huge gamble to opt in.

    with the new CBA etc. I’m not fully up to date so maybe I’m missing something that someone can clarify.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53,028 ✭✭✭✭ButtersSuki


    in short, yes. So you’d have to assume he’s on a promise from Boston. Slightly dangerous game to play but there’s so much nod/wink stuff that goes on nothing surprises me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,233 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Porzingis is expected to tack on 2 more years when he becomes eligible. Plus he gets to join a contender rather than Rockets/Spurs/Raptors who have the cap room to actually sign him as a free agent.



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