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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,593 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    The thing that can come from all this is that the internal struggle dilutes their ability, they are far too stretched and then Ukraine can counter far more effectively as there is turmoil and figuring out who has the orders to give what exactly.

    From then, Ukraine has taken everything back bar Crimea. Crimea is given an independent state (Like Hong Kong) and everything else ends.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 565 ✭✭✭junkyarddog




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,233 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    An influx of 20 to 40 million Russian refugees as well in to Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    I see Lizzy is back and Toby to warn us of dire consequences etc. Lizzy banned for this sort of stuff iirc.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ Carson Some Scam


    Then Putin would be admitting defeat.

    Prigozhin must have a plan in place with people within the Russian Military.

    This could actually be a real coup from within to replace the highest level.

    There is no way Moscow are willingly letting Wagner just roll up to the city.

    It feels like the military are refusing orders from the top.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,352 ✭✭✭rogber


    As everyone always says here: if the Russians are saying it, it must be untrue....

    This whole thing is a bit like Titan story last week: everyone and their granny has a theory. The BBC guy was merely saying: it's a bit early to talk about civil war, things are very murky still



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,352 ✭✭✭rogber


    You always say everything Putin says is a lie.

    You also think every Putin appearance is actually a fake double.

    So why believe it this time?



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ Carson Some Scam


    Is this some sort of defence mechanism to protect yourself from a difference of opinion?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,144 ✭✭✭Augme



    The average solider idnt going to follow them into war againdt Wagner though. They aren't going to die for general's who have been sending them to Ukraine like lambs to the slaughter. They will all defect to Wagner.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,911 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    No, you leave them at it then take advantage of the outcome.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,085 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Any reports of clashes since the helicopter was fired upon hours ago. I haven’t seen anything since.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,520 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Good quick summary of things up to a few hours ago.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,248 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Perhaps take the opportunity to remove Putin in all the confusion?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,144 ✭✭✭Augme



    Putin will soon be placed in a position where he won't have a choice though. As you said, the Russian army aren't fighting back and there is a clear reason why.


    basically it comes down to how much power does Prigozhin want. Does he want to be leader of Russia? I'd lean towards no, he's too much of military man and loved the front like action. He's not a politicians and I can't see that role being that much of an interest too him. Doesn't mean he won't take it though, if it's on offer, very hard to turn.


    I wouldn't be surprised if he is happy with full and total command of the Russian army while Putin stays as leader, almost as a puppet, for the politics side of things.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,911 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I'd imagine all the variables will be worked through, but NATO won't step a foot in russia, they won't need to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Imagine, after all the claims of 5D chess and Putin being a genius…


    He was undone by a hotdog vendor ……



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,259 ✭✭✭HalloweenJack


    It's hard to keep track of all that's going on but it's very exciting. I am feeling uneasily hopeful.

    I can't see Putin just handing over control of the army to Prigozhin. Prigozhin is too much of a loose cannon and a free thinker for Putin to trust him. Putin needed to deal with him when he released that video in Bakhmut demanding support and threatening to pull out. Prigozhin didn't even meet his own deadline that time. They both blinked that time.

    This is such a ballsy move that I think it is an all or nothing play. What do people think Putin is going to if Wagner doesn't succeed? His authority is being challenged boldly and publicly by a prominent member of the Ukraine invasion. Considering how much of a mess Russia has got itself into at the moment, the idea that this is some large scale performance and that they are actually negotiating is absurd. Neither party have the luxury to engage in such spectacular open-air theatre in order to fool the outside world.

    The prospect of Wagner and the Chechens tearing lumps out of each other is hilarious but also insane. If it happens, it could really open up a whole world of chaos. Will other republics who are not so subservient to Putin as Kadyrov is decide to wade in on Wagner's side? If Russia is descending into civil war, how many mini-Kadyrov's are biding their time to join one side or the other?

    It's important to remember about all this: Wagner is a private army. Prigozhin is loyal to the highest bidder so I wouldn't be surprised if the oligarchs are behind this and are fed up of Putin messing with their money and freedom to live a luxurious lifestyle around the world. Prigozhin was quite happy to take Russian money when he was storming across Ukraine a year ago. For whatever real reason, that's changed but I don't see his core motivation (money) changing.

    It'd be great to see an end to Putin but that's only the first step. What comes after Putin? Prigozhin as president? I don't think he's interested in politics so there'd be someone else even if he were in charge of the military. Who would have the real power? If Prigozhin comes out on top, I see there being a weak political figurehead with Prigozhin's financial backers being the real power. A complete regime change would want to root out all Putin loyalists. The question then is how much the new regime is interested in Ukraine or other places. Will the oligarchs keep paying Prigozhin to fight their wars?

    All of this is wild speculation. My fingers are crossed for Wagner going after Putin and knocking seven shades of shite out of each other. I think a civil war on Russian territory would also quickly have people turn against Putin because there'd be a direct line from the Ukraine invasion to the country tearing itself apart.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,143 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Putin nowhere to be seen in Moscow while YP marches around wherever he wants. No wonder the Russian army is letting them past after all the losses so far.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Apparently there's videos of Chechens just surrendering

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,352 ✭✭✭rogber


    You're dodging the question as usual .You always say everything Putin says is a lie and all Putin appearances feature doubles. This time you change your tune. Why?


    For the record, and so that you can't misquote me later: I think this is a very serious rebellion that could go either way. I just think it's too early to predict imminent overthrow of the government. But I'm watching developments with great interest and love seeing Putin squirm, even though Prigozhin himself is a total scumbag.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,520 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    What do they have? Some APCs? I can't imagine they're let in charge of much else so Wagner should have them outgunned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    So about those truck barriers on the road to Moscow




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    So, Moscow using Chechyen Tiktok troops to deal with Russia mercenaries in Russia..




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    Funny when rumours of videos spread on social media instead of the videos themselves. Unless the person who spread the word watched it on the original source and took to the internet. Doubt it though.

    Would love if it were true but rumours of videos belong in 1995.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Possible battle over a nuclear stockpile.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ Carson Some Scam


    Could be. I just can't see how it would work as it would completely destroy Putins reputation as being the overall leader.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    It seems like it is just the police force that are organising the road closures and blockades.

    Like, if the Scottish Guards decided and announced they were going to roll down to London to remove King Charles, Id doubt they'd get far past Newcastle. Or an Army from Texas deciding it's going to go to Washington, they wouldn't get far when the air force take over. It can't be just Russian inadequacy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    Can you share these sources. You're using the internet like everyone else, share the links.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,273 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Hmmm, where are all the people calling for "peace" and for Putin to enter negotiations and give the Rostov region to Wagner..



  • Registered Users Posts: 44 Gluteus_Maximus


    What matters here is nuclear weapons. Will Prigozhin try to seize some? A civil war of any kind in a nuclear super power is extremely dangerous.

    if the Russian front in Ukraine collapses arising from this and a Ukrainian push, will Putin use a tactical weapon against the Ukrainians out of desperation?

    what would the Americans do in response?

    if Prigozhin has backers in Russian military and we see a successful coup what are the chances of a new government being less hawkish than Putin? I would say slim.

    short term this benefits Ukraine, medium term probably not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Waiting for a trusted source first. Too vague at present.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,648 ✭✭✭prunudo


    When it comes to reporting on this war, I've always been weary to put too much trust in what the bbc says coming out of Moscow, particularly if its from Steve Rosenberg, he lives there and I'm sure is acutely aware that every word he says is being watched. He won't be towing the Russian government line, but often its what he doesn't say you need to listen out for, but he certainly won't be telling us how bad it is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,617 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    There is historical precedent with regard to Scotland the jacobites nearly reached London in 1745. Turned back in derby when the French failed to materialise in Dover. But they did March south basically unopposed .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,144 ✭✭✭Augme



    Well when the choice is being overthrown or being a puppet it's can be a great way of shifting onces priorities.


    Putin is done tbh, the failure of the Ukrainian war has already made him look weak. His position of power has now been further undermined. If he stays in power, it will be because someone else has allowed him to and not because he has done it through strength.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,352 ✭✭✭rogber


    A straight up answer for once, thank you.

    Then let's watch what happens and hopefully the f*cker is in serious trouble at last. Ideally these snakes will destroy each other and someone better will emerge from the ruins.

    For all our disagreements, you and I want this to end more or less the same way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 438 ✭✭thereitisgone


    Sputnik not being serious, but could be easy pickings soon for the Chinese



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭vixdname


    Couple of videos appearing on Reddit of citizens in the occupied city of Rostov-on-Don having begun to confront Wagner PMC personnel.

    Its hard to see how all this is going to pan out.

    Ukraine must be looking at this with glee, especially when they see a Russian helicopter blowing up a Russian oil refinery.

    This is just a bizarre day !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,144 ✭✭✭Augme


    It's always easy to say stuff like that when you don't have the noose around your neck.



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ Carson Some Scam


    I mean why were the Chechens called in? Maybe called in as the Russian Military refusing to take orders.

    I'm of the opinion that this is a real coup by the Russian Military to remove their top tier of command and western governments are fully aware of this.

    I think this is the end game now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,380 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    There are no battles over nuclear stockpiles.

    The only battle will be for the missile force commanders to decide which side to come down on.

    Those guys are the only ones that know everything about those weapons, how to secure them, how to maintain them, how to deploy them.

    Taking over a nuclear weapons facility without having the Officers on your side, would be like a Gorilla picking up the keys to a Lamborghini, quite a sight to see but ultimately pointless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,357 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Omigod what is Wagner gets their hands on the torpedo nukes!

    Only a matter of time before the returning posters get to that level of scaremongering

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    Have heard news of videos of people describing rumours of videos describing rumours of rumours about videos. Stay tuned for more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    One of three links reporting this, but have doubts as NOEL and couple others have not mentioned it.


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,926 ✭✭✭Wolf359f




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Wonder if the exiled opposition can make a gain out of this in Belarus


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    "Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake"

    If ever a time this quote was apt, that time is now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    Yes your theory is valid but to dismiss out of hand the possibility of the US having a very large hand in this is a bit silly. It's not like they don't have a long and distinguished history of manipulating these scenarios for their own gain. Like, this is a mercenary army, loyal to the highest bidder. Let's go.


    Either way, I think it's over for Putin. And I also think the US played a long game.



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