Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Shoigu's resignation may not mean as much if it's Putin who'll appoint his successor. He could easily pick someone who's as bad in all the categories that Shoigu is.

...

How does it go from Putin saying it's treason to now an agreement between both parties

Pergozin is a dead man walking

Prigozhin has fallen for the banana in the tail pipe it seems

Zelensky's released a statement pointing out how Putin's nowhere to be seen. Compare that to him being on the 'frontline' in Kyiv in the early days when he was supposedly top of a kill list as the 60-mile* Russian convoy advanced on Kyiv.

The fact that Wagner got as far as they did so easily, taking out some Russia assets as they rolled shows that they have the southern garrisons on their side. Maybe there'll be a renewed assault on Ukraine, but Wagner complained that they were up against NATO standards unlike what they'd been used to in Africa.

It does feel like an unravelling of power, even if Putin remains in place.

How could Putin possibly accept a private mercenary group deciding who runs Russia's armed forces?

That would be a defeat for Putin and a serious blow to his own authority.

All a bit weird.

Looks like it is over for the time being.

The road that was blocked with traffic in red on Google maps are gradually turning orange and green again.

Wagner went from a run on the capital and military allowing progress and in some cases joining in to now negotiating a stop and turn around. Not sure how this will be resolved.

Had to laugh at hois reason for stopping the march on Moscow. To avoid bloodshed!

@Kermit.de.frog

Putin's Russia is a chronically-corrupt state that cynically allows veritable warlords to run large parts of what comprises Russia's armed forces. How could Putin not allow a private mercenary group decide who runs things, militarily? It's a situation he deliberately engineered without anticipating every consequence.

As the saying goes, he remains a master strategist.

Well, if they shot down a few planes & helos on the way, it's not like it was a peaceful demonstration. I guess Prigozhin got paid to call it off, and was able to make some demands such as "get rid of Shoigu".

I've no idea what his motivations are (other than money/power?).

Yes, if we believe these reports, then Putin has been made to look incredibly weak. This will only embolden others to try again at some point. He is a lame duck now .

Good question. I don't know much about Shoigu and he doesn't seem like a particularly outspoken man. The puss on him during that security council meeting on the 22nd or 23rd of Feb, 2022, give the strong impression that he wasn't particularly into what Putin was laying down, but he has remained silent enough and has held onto his position way past the time that many other military commanders have gotten the sack. That makes it seem like he's got some sort of cunning about him. His charisma and general staying power is about to undergo its most serious test, and since it's an ultimatum about his firing that has been delivered, I don't see how he holds onto his job without firing back in some way, be that bureaucratically or via some more forceful means. Potentially less interesting times ahead than the last 24 hours, but interesting times nonetheless.

Today was like Stephen Rea in the crying game. Really didn't turn out as expected.

..

Not with a bang but a whimper

Looks like a loss for Prigozhin (whom I suspect will have to be Navalny'd) and a loss for Putin and his junta, who come out looking weak. Plus a lot of work for the FSB who are going to have to make lists of collaborators who need to be purged.

You'd wonder if the senior Russian generals are having a meet up and going to sort it out themselves. Situation is just absolutely GUBU

It means Russia is not able to defend itself against an army of 25k soldiers. Otherwise, they would have never made a deal.

It only confirms that Russia is all-in in Ukraine and don’t really have much left in terms of army elsewhere. The situation didn’t improve with the losses they took today.

I find it amusing that some posters are trying to tell us it was only “a bit of a challenge”. It is like saying the flood in Italy this spring was just a puddle in a field.

So much for Russian reservists, conscription, etc

We know now, that the Russian army that's in Ukraine... that's it.

No backup, no reserves, nothing.

Wagners forces are going to be pissed if Prigozhin has negotiated their executions.

If not then they'll be cock o the hoop they're a force to be afraid of anywhere they go in Russia. In essence two competing forces rule Russia now.