Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Well that was the nuttiest 24hrs I've witnessed in my lifetime. If the writers on cornation Street came up with that they'd crumple it up and throw it in the bin for being too ridiculous.

Any wagernites or Russian defectors must feel very let down tonight. They've been left right in the shìt and will now always be looking over their shoulder for retribution. This will have done untold damage to the war effort on the frontline

But will soldiers on the frontline now see there is no point downing arms as it will get you nowhere?

I don’t see how any of this works in Ukraines favour.

Incorrect. It is not a disaster.

In the very worst case:

• Putin will have to pull thousands of troops and equipment from the frontline to prevent something like this happening again.
• They lost 6 helicopters, a plane and bombed their own oil depot.
• The main hub for all their supply routes (Rostov on Don) to southern Ukraine were frozen for all of this. And probably still are.(At a time when their main supply route from Crimea was also destroyed the day prior)
• Putin looks like an absolute moron in front of his people. After basically locking down all Moscow and throwing trucks filled with sand and cars on the road to stop Wagner and promising retribution for these crimes. He now has no explanation to give that will make sense.

Yes its not the beginning of the end of the war we were all hoping for. But it required no input from Ukraine at all and honestly if I were a betting man I would bet we haven't seen the tail end of this bizarre day play out yet.

Either it was a coke and vodka fueled “look at me” or he was promised support that didn’t materialize.

Obviously there maybe be another option.

But there is no civil war.

Any joker with 25k lunatics behind them now knows they can march on Moscow virtually unopposed. That'll surely embolden others, maybe even the Chinese because there'll be even fewer defenders on the eastern borders. There's sod all Russian army worth a damn in Ukraine and even less in Russia.

Putin is at his weakest ever if the likes of Lukashenko can talk him into a deal. He looks like the schoolyard bully who got beaten by a little girl, after calling her every name under the sun and needed teacher to intervene. Tomorrow he'll pretend like nothing happened but everyone will know...

We don't know what really was going on behind the scenes. Prigoz might presumably have been banking on support that never materialised. The whole thing seems incredibly illogical from an outside perspective but there was logic behind the move, it obviously didn't work out as hoped.

Bit of an Operation Valkyrie basically.

Regardless whole thing is a massive embarrassment to Putin.

Sure. Sure. Prigozhin getting his freedom…

US intelligence now claiming they had wind of this several days ago and a catalyst was an order from Shoigu etc for units of Wagner to change their contracts to MOD.

Whatever the Russian civilian population will be rattled by all this.

Feel sorry for the people of Belarus, they must have got a taste of freedom. Now their president has even more backup

Good to see Putin is stil, in some kind of control... the World is a bit safer compared to 24h ago

We don't really know that 25,000 armed men couldn't pull it off because Putin evidently panicked and negotiated with them, or rather their leader Prigozhin. Had that negotiation not taken place, god knows what the situation would have been.

Whatever the terms of the negotiations were, I should think they were ones which made heavy promises about Prigozhin's security, otherwise he's hardly going to agree to move to Belarus - a place where he could be picked up at any moment by Russian security forces.

The whole thing is truly bizarre. I'm sure we'll have rumours now of it being a false flag operation so Putin can show the country: it's either me or anarchy.

Who knows what the hell the truth is.

But when people yesterday were saying Putin is gone and fled to Kazakhstan I did say: let's not get too excited yet, give it a day or two. And was proved right. Things can change very quickly in the era of instant news

Guardian even suggesting Prigozhin may regroup with fighters in Belarus and attempt to attack Kyiv, that this story may not be over....

I really wonder now was it some Russian tactic. Cause panic and discord so it seems and then have prigozhin be shipped off to Belarus and probably let's be real here he could end up been in total control of Belarus when their president dies. This could of been what has been laid out. Have him as their leader then Belarus fully come into Russia proper. This might actually be worse case for Ukraine. With him there if this war drags on into next year you might see Wagner troops on the border of Ukraine or just a different name that he has set up and Ukraine hs to worry about attacks again from there. With him going to Belarus it is probably giving Ukraine a headache of what might be to come.

If you strike at the King, you must kill him.

Prigozhin was fighting a propaganda war against Russia's military leaders, particularly Shoigu and Gerasimov, for months. He was asking his "good friend" Putin to replace them but, instead, a decree was issued to induct the Wagner soldiers into the defence forces by the end of June. That would mean the end of the Wagner Group and Prigozhin suddenly understood that Putin had deserted him. Prigozhin decided to strike first and he held the incalculable advantage of surprise.

Why did he stop 150 miles from Moscow? Not because "Russian blood would be spilt". Prigozhin is a blood-thirsty monster.

My guess is that he stopped because

• (a) no one rallied to his cause, most importantly the Russian military (although ordinary Russians did not oppose him),
• (b) he couldn't get his hands on Putin who fled Moscow
• (c) he realised that Putin would use every available weapon to retain his grip on power, even nuclear weapons on Russian soil against Russians.

The deal he got looks like a nothing-burger. Putin has not confirmed it publicly so he is free to do whatever he can now to restore his authority. Shoigu and Gerasimov are keeping a low profile today, like their boss, but they are not gone. "All charges are dropped" - brilliant! And we'll wipe the penalty points on your licence, Yevgeny!. Prigozhin is in the hands of Lukashenko and we know what Lukashenko does to those to try to topple the leader. Dead man walking.

What comms system did Prigozhin use when negotiating this deal with Lukashanko? Were the Americans/Chinese/British eavesdropping? If they were, they will have learned much about Russia's bottom line for a deal in Ukraine.

In the end, it looks like a 21st. Century peasants' revolt where the King buys time with vague promises to the serfs until he can muster his army and string up their leaders. The King survives but - the good news- he has to cut back on foreign adventures.

Prigozin going for Kyiv from the North would be a massive headache for Ukraine.