Russia - threadbanned users in OP

We don't seem to have any details on what Prigozhin will do in Belarus. Channel 4 just mentioned in a news report about living a life of retirement there, but the tone in which this was said sounded tongue in cheek. This is just to underline that what his 'exile' will be like, no-one really knows. But if we say, for the sake of argument, that Prigozhin will remain the leader of Wagner, he'll want his boys in Africa where there is money to be made and relatively little resistance to be found, not hanging around Belarus. If he went to that country and then invited the boys around for an extended stay, it would be fairly obvious what he was planning.

This is very naive. If Russia were to open a northern front it would change the dynamic completely and Ukraine would have to spread it's forces even more thinly than they are now.

I'm not sure Belarus will allow an attack from it's territory but it's still not good having these guys on the Belarus border. It's another potential attack route that Ukraine needs to guard. Another distraction.

So the reports of the Ukrainians crossing the river seem to be true, really thought this was propaganda

Wonder what they planning

They already tried a northern assault and already failed. At the beginning of the war Russians entered northern Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. This was the infamous convoy. Here is part of the wiki page about the incident:

source

If they couldn't manage to do it when they were at their full strength in the very beginning it would be extremely foolish to try it now.

It actually makes sense now how Putin feared Nato or Ukraine invading Russia, as it's so dam easy. The best way to end this war is you invade Russia, if this was 1943, and a country was so so weak, it would be picked off for fun.

I am inclined to agree in part. It would explain why he was hell bent on capturing Bakhmut. However, I think he was set up yesterday to believe that he could overthrow Putin, but key actors betrayed him this is why he made the save facing deal in the end. It seems the attack on his militia never happened. According to US Intelligence he was planning this for weeks. So it makes zero sense that he suddenly had a pang of conscience and wanted to save his men and fellow Russians from bloodshed,especially seeing as he was quite happy for thousands of his men to be used as cannon fodder to expose Ukranian defensive positions in Bakhmut. His March for justice/ coup was a failure. Regarding his exile, I doubt Lukashenko just agreed to let him carry on as he has been doing up to now once in Belarus. This man has a knack for self preseveration afterall. I think Prigozhin will be an isolated figure in Belarus and will be bumped off at some stage without a security detail. The word immunity does not exist in Putin's vocabulary. He will want revenge and also to send a message to others that might be contemplating going against him that this is the price you will pay in the end.

Clearly the real one is glowing with pure evil and dark energy

They faced zero opposition,all they had to do was literally drive to the Kremlin,

He's not the type that looks for mass support

Eh the war is going tits up for Russia and has been for a long time already

The Kremlin are saying putin was inside the Kremlin all along during the March to Moscow but now refuses to make any public statements to reassure the Russians population, propaganda channels are running pre recorded interviews with him instead,

All this stress couldn't be great for him

It was hard to keep up yesterday. Was there any actual reliable confirmation that he'd left Moscow? Lots of tweets flying about flights heading out of Moscow with no destination set or going to Turkey. But was there anything concrete to say he'd left rather than locking himself in his bunker?

There is absolutely no way Lukashenko negotiated for Prigozhin to be allowed to move to Belarus, only to let him rebuild a private army. There won’t be a “Wagner II: Electric Belarus”

In negotiating the deal, Lukashenko finally has something he can hold over Putin to put the brakes on Russia completely consuming Belarus: He saved Putin from an increasingly embarrassing situation, and he now holds the keys for the guy who did the damage in the first place. Lukashenko would have to be a really special class of idiot to throw that win away and let Prigozhin amass an army from his own people that could put him out of power, given how tenuously he’s been hanging on for the past few years already.

You Russians have no idea of the power of the Irish people. We'd defeat you with rocks at the the end of our hurls no problem. We also have the best snipers on the planet. Just sayin

Lukashenko can't fully rely on his own forces.

If pushed too hard they might turn on him.

It probably is in his interest to have Prigozhin replace Putin, Putin is determined to restore the Soviet Socialist Union. Lukashenko not interested.

Prigozhin doesn't have much political ambition beyond power and control.

Give it a go, shur they are planning to kill us anyways is probably the guiding philosophy in the regions politics

He may be, but some think he is not at all… Very Interesting if it proves to be true but I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere else.

Lushashenko has all but surrendered Belarus to Putin ,he's already signed into law the permanent garrisoning of Russian military forces and nuclear weapons and guess who sponsored the bills to allow this Putin himself, lushashenko is nothing more than a puppet for the Kremlin, while he plays the role of both a hard man and peacemaker he's neither, putin decides what, where and who In Belarus,

I can't see prigozhin just sitting there sipping cocktails and enjoying the minsk night life ,the question now will be will lusha have the balls to take care of prigozhin before putin tells prigozhin to take Belarus,or will he keep bowing to his Kremlin master

Not so wild at all…

The Union State was actually mostly Lukashenko’s idea at the beginning, as it was to his advantage to piggyback on Russia’s stronger economy. He negotiated the various treaties with Yeltsin, and had plans to succeed him as ruler of the combined Russia-Belarus state.

His mistake was that he didn’t count on Putin coming in the scene with his imperialist ambitions, and has been trying to fend him off while staying on his good side ever since. This indeed has resulted in him becoming a pathetic puppet of Putin. The only thing keeping him in power is the delicate balancing act he’s been performing. If he pisses of his own people too much, they’ll revolt against him. If he pisses off the Russian too much, they’ll replace him.

Having made the mistake once, he’s hardly going to foster the creation of another puppet master within his borders, especially one that’s already shown such a clear penchant for fearlessness and violent unpredictability.

Shoigu in Ukraine via Russian state TV.

Guessing this is deliberate to squash the rumour that he's getting replaced.