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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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    #19022
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,572 ✭✭✭wassie


    All the talk of in the media of the flood of BTLs that were meant to come to market with when the eviction ban was overturned certainly has not transpired.

    Given that there are very few rentals for people to move into, the reality is its probably a difficult & time consuming process in trying to get vacant possession.



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    #19023
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,553 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120766667#Comment_120766667

    Or they are now in the short let market.



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    #19024
    mike_cork
    Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120766260#Comment_120766260

    My own experience in the Cork City market- I bid on a house approx 2 months ago. Really nice area but the house needed a good bit of work. Was told by estate agent i was the highest bidder at 3.5% under asking. Then estate agent called me to say they had received a bid matching mine but it was a cash offer.



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    #19025
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Real Estate alliance report

    Landlords exiting the market were linked to 36pc of sales

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/price-of-three-bed-semi-in-dublin-hits-500000-for-first-time/a1464061244.html




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    #19026
    syrgian
    Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭syrgian


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767315#Comment_120767315

    How come this report points out to increasing house prices in Dublin, while the CSO reports decreases? I see the statistic in this report is a lot more simplistic: it just looks at 3 bedroom semi-d sales, so it would be imprecise if the kind of houses sold changes (i.e. more modern, or better located) than in the reference period, and they don't mention the CSO report at all. Does RAE and/or independent.ie have interest in misrepresenting the truth?


    Edit:

    Just looked what they said in June 2007:

    It's plain to see, nevertheless, that this opportunity for buyers may not be with us for very long - it may even have run its course by September/October of this year.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20071119025347/http://www.realestatealliance.ie/?vec_action=news_detail&id=71

    And September 2007:

    Real Estate Alliance members are reporting that the signs are good for a busy Autumn period as viewing numbers are up over the last week. Vendors need to bear in mind that house prices are up on average 25% - 30% since January 2005.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20071119030741/http://www.realestatealliance.ie/?vec_action=news_detail&id=74

    Not surprised this kind of organization would want to pump prices all the time, no matter the environment.

    Edit 2:

    Just realized the independent is mentioned as a culprit of the bubble in the wiki:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble#Role_of_the_media



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    #19027
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,572 ✭✭✭wassie


    Prices rose in Cork (1.4pc to €360,000), Limerick (2.9pc to €280,000), Waterford (1.8pc to €285,000) and Galway (0.3pc to €335,000). This was largely due to demand for good-quality homes combined with limited supply. Landlords exiting the market were linked to 36pc of sales.

    Theres no context to that stat. Is this 36% of sales nartionally or just Cork, Limerick, Waterford & Galway? And what is the actual number. It says above supply is limited.

    Either way, without an increase in supply pricing is not dropping anytime soon.



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    #19028
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,843 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767574#Comment_120767574

    It's an article aimed at first time buyers. FTBs are usually buying 3 bed semi-ds, and the article is pointing out that this segment of the market is still seeing prices go up.

    It's not misrepresenting the truth. And it's not more "simplistic". It's just another pivot on the data.



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    #19029
    techdiver
    Registered Users Posts: 3,187 ✭✭✭techdiver


    I'm a home owner (well mortgage holder)so not directly effected by any of this, but is there ever going to be light at the end of the tunnel for this dysfunctional system. For my entire adult life (I'm in my 40's now) the property market in Ireland has been a complete **** show. It went from complete batshit prices in the mid 00's to a property crash and and now straight back to batshit crazy again. What makes the current situation worse in my opinion is even Dublin the high days of the property bubble it was still relatively easy to obtain rental accommodation (I rented in Dublin during a 10 year window from 2004 - 2014).

    I live in the midlands now and even in a town like Mullingar there are "zero" properties listed for the rental market. How/when does this all end? With demand still increasing, homelessness at an all time high, and supply not even close to matching demand from an existing stock point of view and what is currently being developed and planned, how do we ever get out of this? I have family members still renting and at the behest of landlords who sell properties out form under them with a months notice (this has happened twice in the last 12 months).

    I can't see in the long term how this doesn't all come crashing down again. The "younger" generation (those in the their 20's and 30's) are in a considerably worse position than I was at their age and I lived though the worst economic disaster since the great depression. We're told the economy is going gang busters but all I see is a younger generation who are shackled with lower wages (relative to cost of living), less/stunted/delayed career opportunities and a housing market that they can never enter.



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    #19030
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767750#Comment_120767750

    Very few FTBs in Dublin are buying 3bed semi-ds these days at 500k a pop. Thats beyond the reach of the vast majority of FTBs.



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    #19031
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,843 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768875#Comment_120768875

    Thats beyond the reach of the vast majority of FTBs.

    It really isn't. Two people early in their career, both decent earners, combined with HTB, 500k is well within reach. 450k mortgage, need a combined income of about 130k, or about 65k each. This is not a very high income for professionals in Dublin.

    The 3 bed semi D <=500k segment is the poster child of the FTB market.



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    #19032
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768948#Comment_120768948

    Don’t forget the change in lending rules! €450k mortgage now ‘only’ requires €112k joint income.



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    #19033
    syrgian
    Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭syrgian


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768948#Comment_120768948

    There are no new 3BDR under 500k in Dublin City, as far as I can tell. So no HTB/FHS.



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    #19034
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,903 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768996#Comment_120768996

    Realistically there shouldnt be any further houses built within Dublin City limits. Dublin needs to densify. So it's a given that any houses within city limits will be dearer and any new ones will be premium.



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    #19035
    newmember2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭newmember2


    Where are daft getting their report numbers from? PPR numbers for June would be for what went sale agreed possibly months earlier, and they're hardly going on asking prices??

    Personally, I have seen a huge increase in both buyers at viewings and subsequent bidders in bidding wars that are going to anything up to 25% over the asking price since the beginning of this month. So far it appears there's a Summer madness in effect and prices are reflected in this. I'm also seeing asking prices for various properties having risen in the last month or so compared to similar houses in the months previous where prices were dropping.



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    #19036
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769072#Comment_120769072

    Daft published that prices are down yoy but up quite significantly (over 2%) in the last 3 months. It’s based on live asking prices.

    Seems to be following this site.

    https://blocks.roadtolarissa.com/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

    Prices down steadily from half way through last year to Q1 this year but now moving up quite sharply again. Seasonality is definitely a factor in this



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    #19037
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,755 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120767964#Comment_120767964

    Not much that can really be added to that. Unaffordable accomodation is a problem all over the world but there is something uniquely dysfunctional in the way the Irish market operates.



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    #19038
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120768948#Comment_120768948

    You're very wrong.

    The median household income in Ireland in 2022 was 47k per year. [1]

    A household earning 90k per year, across all age ranges, is in the top 10% of households in Ireland[2]. I don't have the figure for households aged under 40 (ie most FTBs) but you can bet its even rarer given their early career point - more like top 5%.

    And a household earning 130k is obviously even more rare again.

    If 95%+ of potential households can't afford something its very much beyond the reach of "the vast majority". Very few households are earning almost 300% of the median income.

    [1]https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2022/householdincome/

    [2]https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/31/kathy-sheridan-fine-gaels-squeezed-middle-are-actually-the-countrys-top-one-third/



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    #19039
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,843 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769965#Comment_120769965

    That is Ireland, not Dublin. Rural areas will always drag the national average down significantly.

    Think about it for a second. Who do you think is buying all the 3 bed semi D's if it's not FTBs?



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    #19040
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769969#Comment_120769969

    And how much higher exactly do you think household income is in Dublin vs Ireland as a whole? Please do share some statistics.

    Do you think the median household income is 300% higher in Dublin than the rest of the country? Because thats what would literally be required to make 500k affordable for the majority of households.



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    #19041
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,843 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769987#Comment_120769987

    Think about it for a second. Who do you think is buying all the 3 bed semi Ds in Dublin, if they are too expensive for the majority of FTBs as you claim?

    If the FTBs in Dublin can't afford the 3 bed semi Ds, what are they buying?

    Median household income includes all workers. Minimum wage workers, people on zero hours contracts, household with only 1 earner, households with no earners, etc etc etc. It is not the statistic you are looking for.



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    #19042
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120769991#Comment_120769991

    I asked you for some statistics to back up your statement, not an attempt to move the goal posts. Do you have any statistics to do so? Or will you just reply with another vague, completely unsubstantiated theory?



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    #19043
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,843 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/05/24/typical-income-of-first-time-buyers-of-new-homes-in-state-above-90000/

    The median income of first-time buyers of new homes in Dublin was €103,000.

    The median household (i.e. people bang smack in the middle of the affordability range) can buy a house worth 450k (103 x 4 + 10% deposit).

    The suggestion that a 500k house, which would require earnings only 9k a year above the average is beyond the affordability of the vast majority does not stand up to scrutiny.

    There are plenty of FTBs buying these houses in Dublin. In fact, I would imagine that the overwhelming majority of 3 bed, semi Ds sold in the city are bought by FTBs. They are literally the target market.



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    #19044
    FernandoTorres
    Registered Users Posts: 661 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    I think the bank of Mum and Dad is a huge factor that's hard to assess. There's a lot of FTBs getting very large gifts to buy houses. There's over €159bn household deposits in Irish banks earning no interest so people are happy to give to their kids to have them live nearby.



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    #19045
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120770234#Comment_120770234

    This is a fair point that many people don't take into account - and the trend towards smaller family sizes compounds its impact when it comes to the sharing of inheritance and whatnot.



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    #19046
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It's not often you see an opinion piece in the Irish Times (or anywhere else tbh) that questions the sacred narrative, so this is a welcome contribution from Dr. John McCartney, director of research at BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland - "Ireland has many housing problems. But lack of supply isn’t one of them"

    Unfortunately it is paywalled as it deserves as wide an audience as possible but here are a few highlights:

    Ireland’s housing problem is wrongly characterised as one of undersupply. There will be no solution until this misdiagnosis is corrected.

    In economic terms, two features define an undersupplied property market: vacancy rates will be low and real prices and rents will be rising. Neither condition appears to pertain in Ireland.


    Real house price inflation in Dublin has averaged just 1 per cent a year since March 2019, and negative inflation has been recorded 23 times in the last 50 months, including in each of the last seven. Real property prices are currently falling by 5.8 per cent a year (3.4 per cent nationally), and a similar pattern is evident in the rental market, where there has been negative real inflation since the second quarter of 2022.


    Housing output rose by 45 per cent last year, to a level 6.5 times higher than a decade ago. This continued into 2023 with the strongest ever first-quarter completions. The economic signals are telling us that this has been sufficient to meet demand, despite the inflow of Ukrainian refugees and increased Government spending on subsidies for house buyers and renters.

    Confronted by this evidence, why is there such a widely-held conviction that Ireland’s property market is undersupplied?

    The reason is that our national housing debate has been dominated by sectional interests which benefit from the chronic undersupply narrative. From a commercial perspective, undersupply makes development funding easier to obtain. It also provides leverage for industry representatives to lobby for occupier subsidies that draw out supply by supporting higher prices and rents. Examples include Help to Buy, the First Home Scheme, the Local Authority Home Loan and the Rent Tax Credit, all of which have been introduced, extended or enhanced in the last six months, while mortgage restrictions have been relaxed.


    The case that Ireland’s housing market is undersupplied now rests entirely on claims that measured housing output falls short of long-term housing demand forecasts. This is flimsy evidence because such forecasts are entirely notional, relying as they must on assumptions about things that are inherently hard to predict. 


    Therefore, to reconcile its conflicting objectives of increasing supply and preserving property values, the Government will have to channel ever-increasing resources into demand-side supports such as the schemes listed above. In specific terms, this represents an onerous and unnecessary long-term fiscal commitment.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/06/27/ireland-has-many-housing-problems-but-lack-of-supply-isnt-one-of-them/




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    #19047
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,057 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120771347#Comment_120771347

    How does that opinion piece reconcile with the chronic rental shortage, or the very low volume of houses for sale?

    Author mimust be very out of touch to chalk the whole thing up to vested interests creating a false narrative to increase demand for housing. Almost like a conspiracy theory



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    #19048
    AdamD
    Registered Users Posts: 12,645 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120771382#Comment_120771382

    He also is ignoring that last year was skewed for house competitions due to covid delays, they look like they're going to decrease this year.


    'The case that Ireland’s housing market is undersupplied now rests entirely on claims that measured housing output falls short of long-term housing demand forecasts. This is flimsy evidence because such forecasts are entirely notional, relying as they must on assumptions about things that are inherently hard to predict. '


    This is an absolutely wild claim, ask the author to try buy or rent a home in the next few months and see if that changes their mind on supply



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    #19049
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120771422#Comment_120771422

    This is an absolutely wild claim, ask the author to try buy or rent a home in the next few months and see if that changes their mind on supply


    Not really, think of the progress that was made during covid when many of the air bnbs were flushed out

    Consider what also could be achieved if the state placed a cost on leaving a property empty. The rental rules plus 0 interest rates have encouraged this practice,



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    #19050
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,696 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120770234#Comment_120770234

    Good point. I myself received only a pittance from my parents thanks to my father's litany of terrible decisions in the last decade, but the amount of cash out there is simply gruesome. As a personal anecdote, my grandmother's house was bought in cash for 800k last November. Apparently, a woman in her 80s bought it for her nephew and his family. A decade of rampant money printing is paying dividends, for some at least.



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    #19051
    AdamD
    Registered Users Posts: 12,645 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120771574#Comment_120771574

    What progress? The rental market is worse than its ever been



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