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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    I think people looking for a grand tactical plan on the part of Prigozhin are mistaken and this analysis best sums it up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,209 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Latest statement from Prig

    “Despite the fact that we did not show any Aggression, a Missile Attack was launched on us. 30 Fighters were Killed and others were Injured. This served as a trigger for our Immediate Advance. One of the Columns went to Rostov, the other towards Moscow. Was not a single Soldier was Killed on the Ground. We regret that we had to Strike at Aircraft, but they Attacked us with Bombs. We traveled 780 km, this is 200km to Moscow and we Blocked all Military Bases and Airfields along the way. Among the PMC Fighters, there are several Wounded and 2 Dead - among them Employees of the Ministry of Defense that decided to join our Cause. None of the PMC Fighters was Forced to March, and everyone knew his Goal. Our March showed Serious Security Problems across our Country but it was never our Goal to Overthrow the current Regime and Legally-Elected Government.”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Prigozhin has issued an 11 minute audio message.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,023 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    Thank you and thanks to Francie, it was a bit odd that Igor was the only one talking about stolen nukes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 991 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    What’s the chances of this all being setup by Putin to flush out any real challengers to overthrowing the government?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭briany


    This has been mentioned several times as a possibility. It may have that effect, but Putin is not the 4D chess master he likes to portray himself as, and we know this by his amazingly stupid decision to invade Ukraine. A decision of hubris and disastrously bad intelligence.

    So, while it could be a setup, I'm much less sure of that than I would have been two years ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,788 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    The pantomime continues.

    Prigozhin the pantomime villan. The villan whose forces take a sledgehammer to opponents. He's the devil incarnate. He must be feared.

    Putin the statesman. The troubled statesman who uses diplomacy to solve problems.

    Except. EXCEPT. It's all BS.

    It's a script from the Kremlin. Don't they love their operas. And love their tragedies. Knocking one over on their own and the world. The superiority of thinking another leg has been pulled. The confusion of the Russian public in that everything is false. So nothing gets done.

    What has occurred?

    Putin's private army went in convoy to Moscow. Outwardly against Putin's orders. The Russian army who know the bs didn't oppose them. Those who joined Wagner are dead or will be. The few who opposed in the half hearted opposition with the airforce were expendable to the cause.

    Now what happens? Prigozhin has set up camp in Belarus with Wagner. It's still Putin's private army. Still able to operate from Belarus and the rest of the world. Outwardly Putin's hands are clean. Wagner are now able to operate now with even more impunity. Wagner won't have nukes unless Putin says Wagner gets nukes. Wagner won't get Russian airfields, planes, helicopters, weapons. Unless Putin allows it.

    Putin now has his madman with Russian planes, helicopters, nukes, equipment in a separate country bordering the EU. It's not Putin. Oh no it's Prigozhin. It's not Russia. Oh no. It's Belarus and that madman Prigozhin who just happened to have been gifted all these goodies with no opposition from Putin.

    Poor Putin. It's tough being poor Putin. He remains a master strategist. Says he tongue in cheek.

    *tactical nukes are already in Belarus weeks ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Caquas


    The Americans blew the whistle in December 2021 on Putin’s preparations to invade Ukraine when no other Western intelligence service agreed. That shows the US has the best sigint, especially satellite, but also some humint within the Russian defence forces to confirm that the troop movements were not just a repeat of the Zapad exercise that had the Poles so excited in 2017. But the information would have been very widespread with the Russian military staff so I don’t think those sources have direct access to the top level.

    Over the weekend, I think the Western intelligence service were totally blindsided. I don’t blame them for not anticipating Prigozhin’s move- neither did Putin - but it seems they still have no idea what really happened with the Lukashenko “deal” nor what will happen next. Even Anthony Blinken on the Sunday talk shows was reduced to the sort of speculation you can read here. We are back to the days of Kremlinology when Western “experts” on Russia scrutinised the body language among Russian leaders to figure out who was in and who was out.

    One amazing feature of the weekend - the Western powers were scared sh**less that Putin would be ousted . Imagine if Prigozhin controlled Russia’s nuclear arsenal! The West can see there is no organised resistance to Putin left in Russia. If there was, they missed a golden opportunity. The only threat to Putin is a Palace coup. It may already be underway for all we know: my guess is Putin hangs on but there will be relentless jockeying for position among key figures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @Say my name

    It's a script from the Kremlin. Don't they love their operas. And love their tragedies. Knocking one over on their own and the world. The superiority of thinking another leg has been pulled. The confusion of the Russian public in that everything is false. So nothing gets done.

    Putin's playbook 101. Make everyone think nothing is real, nothing is genuine. Sow cynicism and sow apathy. And best of all, let it be known that this is what is being done, perpetuating the cycle. Undoing this psychological oppression will be a key factor to unseating him.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Well here in Belgrade Saturday evening, the main evening news on TV was one of rejoicing at how the incredibly stupid Americans had been taken for 6 billion USD by the clever scam orchestrated by Prigozhin and Putin. When the CIA were unable to destroy Russia on the battle field, they made a plan to stage a coup to get rid of Putin ( getting rid of elected governments is what they do) So Prigozhin set the trap months ago, and the stupid Americans fell for it, hook, line and sinker! He began bad mouthing the Russian military leadership, and became a thorn in their side, and when the CIA offered him 6 billion to finance a coup, he accepted. To make it as realistic as possible, he moved his military from Ukraine to Rostov, and then set out for Moscow, when the final payment had been confirmed, he turned his army around and away from Moscow. Mr Putin was in on the plan the whole time. This was repeated several times throughout the evening in Serbia, but strangely enough, it had vanished by the next day, and no mention has been heard of it since. And people here, also followed it hook, line and sinker. Much discussion and laughter in the bars etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I don't buy any of these 4D chess takes:

    1. It was far too elaborate and chaotic for some kind of grand scheme cooked up by both Putin and Prigozhin.
    2. Putin was made to look weak. There is nothing in the world that he despises more than looking weak.
    3. If Putin wanted to set Wagner up in Belarus he could have just twisted Lukashenko's arm like he did when he used Belarus as a launching point for the invasion or when he decided to move nukes on to its territory.

    I realise that Putin has nurtured a reputation as the master of the dark arts but that doesn't mean that he's in control of everything. He's not omnipotent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭victor8600


    Exactly.

    Please understand, that ALL official Russian information at a time of a crisis is a LIE. Always. Whatever Putin says about "pardoning Wagner", or Peskov saying that Prigozhin is in Belarus, or that Lukashenko averted the crisis and now everything is a hunky dory, these are all lies. We know some probably-true facts: that Putin considers Prigozhin a traitor; that the Russian MoD attacked Wagner's camp; that some Wagner troops were moving towards Moscow without much resistance on the ground; and that they have destroyed some helicopters and a plane. There is just no way Prigozhin has no backup plan, and running to Belarus where he can be easily captured is not it. Going to Belarus with 10000 troops? Lukashenko would be doubly stupid to allow that.

    I think if Prigozhin is still alive, we will see interesting things happening really soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Oooh. Which of Grayzone, Seymour Hersch or Jacobin will pop up with this story next I wonder?



  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    More gear on the way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I don't know, and if someone was to tell me, I would not have believed them. but I watched it live on National news on Serbian TV myself. The amount of snide giggling from the commentators was unreal. So Putin ( and his propaganda factory) have long tentacles. And while telling this with straight ( albeit smiling) faces, completely ignoring the 7 Russian aircraft and the 15 deaths that had occurred during this scam, and the widespread panic that had occurred. With Putin being amongst the most panicked it seems.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,904 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Seriously, it's been a couple of days and the best tankie explanation is "Wagner was able to move to Belarus, 100km from Kyiv"? The Kremlin propaganda machine must be down for summer maintenance.

    What was stopping them from relocating before this debacle?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭briany




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    MAGA nuts are all over Twitter with this to bash Biden as well as the text recovered from the famous Hunter laptop where he extorted 5 m from China



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    I thought Prigozhin is involved in the bot factories? If so then pumping out pro tv president Putin propaganda wouldn't make sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,009 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think given the fact the Western intelligence agencies may have been blindsighted by this and, as you say, were alarmed at the prospect of someone like Prigozhin at the helm, this will perhaps focus minds in the west to try and line someone up who they deem acceptable to replace Putin. Finding someone like that will be tricky. Also implementing it will be tough given the FSB will be on heightened alert for such a possibility now. You maybe right about there not being a high ranking spy in the Russian MOD,but some of information(especially regarding the plan for Kyiv) the Americans had at their disposal seemed too precise to be more widely known amongst the rank and file soldiers. It was risky for the Americans to reveal it,but they probably calculated it had to be done in the hope Putin might have doubts about going ahead, but that's not his way.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,589 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Didn’t it come out in the leaks a few weeks ago that they have infiltrated Putins top command and that’s how they knew Russia where about to invade when everyone else said they wouldn’t?


    Prigizon also said in his rant about how the Kremlin’s reasons for the invasion were lies.


    No way he would be allowed say that if it was staged.



  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,213 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Keep in mind that the Serbian regime are Putin lovers and still despise NATO over the events of 1999. I'm not sure we should be be paying much attention to the musings of a bunch of right wing nationalists and semi fascists.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭briany


    "Steven Seagal has personally asked me to direct and co-star in his next film."



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭riddles


    Are the Serbs really that stupid? Is it possible?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,788 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Considering the above of Serbian TV.

    What if Putin was shaking down the US for money, lined up on the Belarusian border. The US called phuck it enough of this crap and prepared Ukraine for invasion.

    Wouldn't be the above give knowledge of invasion?

    Putin, Russia, soldiers still 100% responsible and should be held accountable with respective agency took from them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 991 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Putin may have just realised what a great story the US paying Prig is



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,213 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    They are pro-Putin propagandists. They love his regime and hate NATO....they're still bitter and seething with resentment about being bombed by them in 1999.



  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork




  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,576 ✭✭✭yagan


    They have a "greater Serbia" mentally to match Putin's revanchism. Victor Orban is another one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    A Russian Foreign affairs scholar published this article over the weekend...

    He argues that Russia will have to launch a nuclear strike against europe.

    I read the article and its pretty crazy reading, and whats more scary is the comments from many Russians on it.

    Many of them actually believe that they can launch nuclear weapons at Europe with little to no consequences because the USA would be too scared to retaliate.

    If anyone needs to have a look at some of the thinking of many Russians to this war they should have a look at these comments, they really think that they are the good guys and the west is just out to destroy Russia.

    You will need to translate from Russian to English...




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Putin looks scared



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 991 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Putin must have Prig in a jail cell or in the ground, no way he would change tune with the risk of them coming back



  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,276 ✭✭✭combat14


    prigozgin had his chance this weekend he is at putins mercy now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,126 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Oof

    They lost a lot more men and equipment than they let on, surely

    Rank and file must be fuming about the deal Prigo made



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,788 ✭✭✭✭Say my name




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    "Thanks to the Wagner soldiers who turned around to avoid bloodshed".

    Ehhh? Not before they shot down 6 irreplaceable helicopters and radar plane. Killing several pilots in the process.

    Only in Russia. Pack of absolute clowns.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Honestly though most of it was a nothingburger.

    He did say the "organisers" would be dealt with but didnt name Prigozhin. So they could still scapegoat someone else for show. Or it could just all be words to appear tough and hopes the general public will simply swallow it and forget, they have swallowed some absolute nonsense in stride up until now.

    On the flipside though it's really difficult to imagine Putin letting this betrayal slide.

    Prigo will hardly go down quietly if he's about to be brought to task either. But then he separated himself from his army for some reason. Very hard to know. Im confusing myself even as a write.



  • Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    Having read the full transcript of the speech I'd tend to agree and will update my previous comment (apologies)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Lukashenko has postponed his speech until tomorrow ?

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,788 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Did the Russians put out (or Wagner) that Nazi guy was leading the convoy?

    He seems an ideal candidate that would be appropriate for punishment in the Russian and World media.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    If Wagner has any power remaining - this could get ugly



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,796 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    On June 26, the city military administration of the temporarily occupied Berdyansk confirmed that Tigran Ohannisyan and Nikita Khanganov were killed by the Russians .

    Two 16 year old kids who took up arms against the Russian occupying forces were murdered.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,248 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Putin seems to be going back on his deal. No surprise there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,748 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    None of this makes sense. Even if you took the Russians and Wagner's word as gospel, it doesn't make sense.

    Why is Putin making speeches at midnight, Moscow time with little notice? Why was Lukashenkos speech postponed? What was the point of a Lukashenko speech when Putin's speech said absolutely nothing?

    The only thing that makes sense to me is that my opinion of Saturday. Putin is not running the country anymore. He was sent out to go on TV to announce something else and he wouldn't play ball. Lukashenko then had to cancel his speech.

    Wagner has Russia by the balls somehow but we don't know how. There is absolutely no way Prigozhin has gone to Belarus without insurance. He's not stupid. He knows the windows are big.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,232 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The PM of Serbia is from the Serbian progressives Party, the deputy PM is from the Socialist party.


    That's why they are soft on Putin.


    There is still a soft spot for Russia across much of the Left in Europe.



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