Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

That article is ludicrous on its face - just lol if you buy into that kind of economist-brained supposition, that reasons backwards to a desired conclusion via flimsy assumptions that don't withstand a moment's scrutiny.

Double post..

It rather reminds me of the wild kind of articles that used to come up back after the crash of '08. One of my favourites was the suggestion that the state could achieve full employment through unpaid internships.

Hmm, where was that inflationary advice at the start of 2020?

When they talk about approvals here, is this just AIP or drawdown?

Nothing makes sense at the moment with mortgage banking here. I'm usually pretty good at working out what is going on behind the scenes but I can't put my finger on the current situation.

As somebody pointed out here before we went from one of the highest mortgage rates to one of the lowest in the EU.

Your point above about our central bank chief giving more money but telling others to tighten.

I just did an online mortgage application with AIB. With 50% LTV their variable rate is 3.15%. The deposit rate with ECB is 3.5%. They could park the money with zero risk and get a higher return.

What is going on?

If the vast majority of households in Dublin are earning less than 130k, which they are, then its not "very achievable" by any statistical demographic metric.

Calling a household income almost 300% the median household income (47k) for the country "very achievable" is either a terrible bias or extreme naivety.

Interesting, I thought it was AIP as there is a separate drawdown report by the same entity. Only produced quarterly I think.

Sometimes feel everyone is so negative about housing (and with good reason in many case), that they can’t see the wins when they stare us in the face. If FF/FG set out their stall 18 months ago and promised that:

• More FTBs would get approval to buy a house than ever before

• Unemployment would hit all time lows.

• We’d have some of the cheapest mortgage rates in Europe

• House prices would still fall 5-10%+ in real terms despite the above

• Housing completions would hit levels not seen since Celtic Tiger.

Theyd have been widely ridiculed, yet that is where we are today. Still a long way to go. Rental, in particular, is still a complete shambles, but these last 12-18 months have been almost surreal in terms of progress for those wanting more FTBs getting houses and cheaper prices. Yet still it seems all doom and gloom. Hopefully this current trend continues and things will be a lot better very quickly.

Are they seeking to kill off the foreign competition?

Nearly All of your points could equally apply to the maximum damage phase of the Celtic tiger.

Remember for ftb to purchase at current prices they have to come up with funding that equals what investment funds were able to raise paying no tax and an environment of negative interest rates and the state panic buying

I think conditions in housing market are a long way from where they were at peak Celtic Tiger. But my main point is I’m just confused as to what people want to see when they open news like today.

Mortgage approvals up - Bad News, prices will go up. Reckless lending

Mortgage approvals down - Bad News, nobody can buy a house. Rental market is terrible and I’m trapped.

The majority of the key metrics for housing are trending in the right way. Approvals up, prices down, completions up, employment levels up. If this isn’t good progress, then I don’t know what good progress is.

Sadly I think the reality is that many people want - ‘Mortgage approvals drop to zero…except for me, where the banks are happy to lend infinite funds to me…and prices drop 80% because nobody else can get approval…but builders keep building so I have lots of choice despite prices falling 80%…and then after I buy, banks start lending again and all returns to normal’