Russia - threadbanned users in OP

It's not an action movie, the lines aren't going to suddenly break en masse, it's massive defense in depth. The minefields are a huge problem. The more kit they have the better, but in a best case scenario it's still going to take Ukraine a long time. Could go on for years. Or the Russian military could start to collapse from the pressure, we've already seen plenty of cracks.

Also keep in mind Ukraine has liberated over 250 square km in several weeks with bad weather and not committing the bulk of it's offensive forces, far more than Russia took in 6 months.

Firstly, NATO is looking at more effective weapons to help Ukraine speed up the process of retaking the country. Not as fast as most would like, but training on the F-16s looks to be happening.

Secondly, it appears that NATO strategy is not to chase Russia out of Ukraine in a quick manner but to wear Russia down until the Putin regime falls and Russia withdraws or comes to the table with a much more modest set of proposals. Is this a cynical way to go about things when people are getting blown up by mines and dying in all sorts of other horrible ways? One could make that argument, but we're dealing with a large power in Russia under Putin who is incredibly spiteful and ruthless. I think they would blow that power plant if they found themselves on the end of an imminent rout along the southern front, for example. They may not go with nuclear weapons, but will happily commit every massacre and create every ecological disaster they can if they think they're about to lose the small hold they do have on the territory of Ukraine.

Thirdly, I think we should take a moment to appreciate that the West has given Ukraine a massive amount of military aid so far, such that it's pretty much the main reason (apart from the Ukrainian soldiers' tenacity) why Zelenskyy isn't currently sitting in a Russian jail cell (optimistic, here, to think they wouldn't kill him without trial) and a puppet government hasn't been running the country for the last year.

True, but to be fair you could also phrase it in this way: the amount of territory the Russians captured in their Winter offensive was miniscule in relation to their ambition. The amount of territory which Ukraine has captured in its Summer offensive is similarly miniscule, although less so.

Ukraine need something to breach Russian lines and really put them in disarray.

Hoping Ukraine can do the same kind of thing along this southern front. It begs the question what kind of fortifications the Russians had in place to slow Ukraine's advance in that region. Was it of a similar level to what Ukraine is facing now? If so, what tactics did Ukraine employ to overcome them and could they be used in their current offensive?

Yes it is.

Perun talks about this exact thing in his latest video. I have it lined up to begin at the relevant section below

Neither you nor I nor anyone else knows what is going on behind the scenes with Putin, lukashenko and Wagner. The whole thing is bizarre and only time will tell what everyone's purpose is.

it’s also actually a Saab model, but I think dolly has the right context here

Of course. Great tune too.

I assume it's for the same or similar reasons Commodus doesn't kill Maximus even when he has him dead to rights: you don't try and make martyrs and you don't try and set the match on a rebellion. Least of all when your martyr is a 'war hero' with the adoration of your military...

How effective would a MOAB be vs. a MCLC at the same job?

I miss bad asian animation

Are you saying the American intelligence services knew what was going on in Russia last Sunday (when the world thought a homicidal lunatic might get his hands on Russia's nuclear arsenal) but that they preferred their President and senior officials to look like deer caught in the headlights rather than re-assuring the American people because that would give the impression that they had better sources of information in the Kremlin?

I am saying the opposite and that one of the most important aspects of this episode is the weakness of Western intelligence in Russia. Everyone knew Prigozhin was angry and unstable but he caught everyone with their pants down last weekend and it is hard even for media close to the Biden Administration to disguise this -

I don't blame the CIA etc. for not anticipating Prigozhin's mutiny - that took everyone by surprise, especially the Russian MoD. But the element of surprise was gone by Saturday evening when Lukashenko announced the "deal". As far as I can see, no Western power seems to know what is happening in Russia even now e.g. is Putin's power secure? what becomes of Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries? how will it affect the war in Ukraine? I doubt if they even know whether General Gerasimov is even still alive [I assume so and expect him to re-emerge shortly, but who knows?]

All the Western media analysts, including those who are known to be linked to Western intelligence services, are just speculating with whatever crumbs of information become public. They don't even pretend to have sources in the Kremlin (and the media always boast about any high-level contacts).

I say we are back in the depths of the Cold War when Western intelligence had no high-level source in the Kremlin. Ditto with Beijing. The internet gives Americans a huge advantage in SigInt but not in Russia, it seems, nor in China (which may have turned the tables on the Americans in that area).

We are going to experience many more unpleasant surprises from Russia and China.

Intelligence may have learned what Prig was planning, but like Prig, Putin, Luk, Shoigu, etc they didn't know exactly what would happen next until it happened. It was a 22 hour event, Biden wasn't going to stand up and second guess what even the Russians didn't know was going to happen next. When the deal was struck, we learnt about it quickly and it ended quickly.

It's intelligence, not clairvoyance

..

I understand the need to probe, but they not only have to find a gap in the mines, but find a gap which isn't covered by other forms of defence, or if it is covered by other forms, then comparatively weak forms. The Russians could conceivably have essentially mined every bit of open ground which sits between their defensive positions and advancing Ukrainian forces, especially if they themselves have no imminent intention of pressing forward on that front themselves, and in order to advance, Ukraine will simply have to clear a path, which makes it trickier to make a sudden drive at a point in the Russian lines which they believe to be weak.

Watching Lukashenko's televised remarks today, he made Putin look very weak, not a strong man. He made it sound like he was the calm and measured one on Saturday whilst Putin was in a state of panic and depression.

I heard a report earlier the AFU have re-established positions within the perimeter of the town itself. If there's another protracted battle for control of the town, not even the blackened husks of the buildings may be standing by the end of it. As long as it remains worthwhile in terms of the ratio of Ukrainian losses to Russian ones, and as long as the Russians are boneheaded enough to keep committing forces there, then crack on, I suppose.

Well for the deniability stunt that Putin has used successfully up to now, I don't think that it will work when it comes to Nuclear weapons. Any kind of Nuclear attack will be blamed fairly and squarely on Putin, as he is considered to be responsible for all Nuclear events in that part of the world. And it would be the correct decision, as only Putin would have the codes needed to fire them, So no matter where they are launched from, the trail leads back to Putin.

Has Putin successfully used deniability? Seems to me that the only people who believe Putin's attempts to deny things that were very clearly Russia's doing are Russian citizens and a gaggle of western contrarians. A low enough bar, imo. I absolutely agree that Putin would be bang to right if he ever launched nukes, not that who's to blame would any longer be a pressing concern when doomsday is in the offing.