Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

its common sense that you could re-act to any changes in the market and not just plow on regardless

this is the whole problem, the government spent 10 years just sitting on their hands, probably on purpose, while this developed

there are low vacancy levels in dublin, high in leitrim which skews his figures and in the vacant properties left in dublin, considerable effort would be needed to bring these on line in comparison even to completion of new houses. The downside of new housing is these are not necessarily getting built where people want to live.

but it would takes years to both bring these online and to balance out the 10 years of no building

on the vanancy numbers these have been falling, the census which is the basis isn't that indicative as its not every year

but he uses a blended number which doesn't account for the fact that vacancy in dublin 2% and in leitrim its 12

it seems a mad article from a stats person to bring out

Also what nobody seem to point out here, is that there a lot of professional people on a good salary buying on their own. Everyone seem to mention here couples whose joint salary may be 130k, but I know two people who would be looking to buy on their own and they are not early 30.

Maximum damage phase of the celtic tiger was 03 to 07 where house prices were not allowed to correct naturally and subsidy after subsidy after loose lending were thrown at it to prop the pyramid scheme up. The weakest buyers were herded in at the maximum price at the end leaving the collapse inevitable.

Today Ireland has decided to relax lending, increase subsidies and place more of the cost of construction on the taxpayer by reducing/eliminating development levies in a time when every country in the world at a high level is attempting to fight back on inflation

This to me seems a blatant attempt to prevent property from falling to somewhat more affordable levels

Your last paragraph is a slip in your normal quality contributions

Base effects for measuring inflation will be less favourable after next month when the commodity price rise peaked as a result of the war

Globalisation effects are reversing

Lack of competition amongst banks domestically. The deposit levels at banks are back to pre covid levels so that source of cheap funding for the banks is depleting fast

Anti immigration movements

Esg discouraging investing in mining and gas oil exploration which provide the raw materials to allow for energy transition.

Global warming and more crop failures.

Wars are inflationary and detrimental to supply cgains

Many other factors just too numerous to mention. On the other side there will be global recession, but dropping rates to zero or negative will not be an option as it will stoke the inflationary fires again

This has probably been asked before, but is there any sign that banks will start offering interest on savings accounts in line with interest rates? I don't keep much money in cash, but I'd be happy enough with a 5% interest rate if it were available...

Well done, brilliant post

Have you got a revolut account, they recently changed there brokerage provider who offer etf's that track US treasury bonds. Euro dollar very favourable at the moment also, close to 12 month highs

Be careful I would not invest over and above what is guaranteed which I think is 23k

no they sat on their hands, they made no attempt to fix it, what did they did do was piecemeal attempts at alleviating the affects of it, which of course did nothing in the long term

there are certain things you can't just leave to the markets

housing is one of them

Purely for information purposes from Rosenberg research linkedin

this is exactly why the example doesn't make any sense

The household income you suggested was required and that was "very achievable" was 130k per year.

The median household income for FTBs, not all households, is 103k per your own data. It doesn't include "people who will never be able to buy a house" by its very definition.

A figure approaching 30% above this median income, as your "very achievable" 130k is, is statistically very much beyond the vast majority of even just FTBs.

Its an even more tiny minority of households as whole in the country, given only 10% of households earn over 90k per year, as I linked.

By any statistical measure 500k houses are not within reach for the vast majority of people, as I initially stated.