Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

your example is one of a broken market, broken by its size, it can never work, it makes no sense, no market can work if everyone tries to move at the same time, there's a limit on how liquid it can be

i would say its almost the worst example you could have made

It's a deliberately simplistic example to illustrate a point.

It seems very obvious to me. Less so to you.

Fair enough, one of us is wrong, but I've no interest in arguing about which one of us that is.

I've thought about it a bit more and maybe I can explain it another way.

Again consider the very simple example above:

It is a small population of 9 residents happily accommodated in 4 households.

So they have an average household size of 2.25

Would you agree that as long as there are 9 residents and 4 houses in that community happy with their housing, the total housing stock for that community is not chronicly undersupplied, irrespective of what is actually available on the market at any given time?

The number of residents, number of houses and average household size is data that confirms to us there is not a chronic undersupply of houses in that market, irrespective of what the immediate of demands of the individual residents might be.

It is clearly obvious from the data that building two new houses and two new apartments would lead to significant oversupply. This is the data that was ignored by Canny McSavvy in favour of the narrative.

Does that make sense?

Is the area now under supplied? Will it be? Should we make sure there are a few spare houses so we dont ened up with a homeless crisis? Or should we just wait til it all happens?

I agree with you also that we need to plan ahead for spare houses so we don't end up with a homeless crisis.

And I'd ask you the same question, of all the new build forecasts you've seen which do you think is the most accurate to ensure we have enough spare houses?

By 50k have seen you any published forecasts by experts that sound correct or where you getting that figure from?

Yes, I'm aware I asked it of you and you ignored it. It's no problem, and I din't badger you about it.

I have claimed on here many times I think a lot of the belief that the only way to solve the current problems in the market is to build more new builds is driven by the media headlines rather the data, and I've been lampooned for that. This was also point of the article in the IT so roundly rubbished here - the author contends that the narrative is not supported by the data.

There is no shortage of posters willing to say how ridiculous that is, but so far nobody has actually cited any data, they've only repeated the narrative.

I have asked the question a few times because surely, if the opinion that "The only solution to the current problems is to build more houses" is supported by data rather than headlines the person expressing the opinion would have some idea what that figure is.

If the figure is too low you won't solve the problem, if it is too high we'll end up in oversupply.

So what is the figure?

I think the figure is somewhere between 20k and 30k per annum, and I think we need to concentrate almost exclusively on apartments. No more 3 bed semis. But unfortunately I cannot link any expert forecasts that I've seen as I've yet to read any that I think are credible.

I am simply asking which ones you, or any of the other posters who rubbished the IT article, think are credible?

So 33,000 per annum?

And I am assuming you don't know what data and assumptions they have based that forecast on? I am not trying to catch you out, it would just be quicker if you did know and could link rather than me having to search for it?