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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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    #19382
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120781823#Comment_120781823

    It doesn't say there is spare stock at all, can you flesh that out

    House prices and rent are at all time highs where is this spare stock being hidden

    I just don't think you understand how it works

    You have 10 years of under building, you do get this, what are the consequences?



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    #19383
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120781893#Comment_120781893

    What is not credible about the government's projections


    You have provided zero evidence to counter it



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    #19384
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron



    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120781761#Comment_120781761

    Give us some examples? It's been steady for 10 years plus on population,

    And only going in one direction, and if things change you can adjust

    You don't just make a 10 year plan and stick with it

    what do you think is going to change on housing formation, most of the change has already happened with the drop in family sizes

    now even though there will be variance, so far only upwards, do you not think you plan using realistic numbers or not? because this is the crux of it

    so far no planning, disaster



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    #19385
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,488 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Has this not been done to death on more than one occasion…



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    #19386
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782247#Comment_120782247

    what was the outcome 🤣



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    #19387
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782148#Comment_120782148

    There are plenty of papers out there. Migration does vary year to year, often linked to to economic conditions. Household formation also varies. It’s touched on this paper as an example.

    https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/QEC2014SPR_SA_Duffy.pdf

    Absolutely agree - population is going up and will continue to do so. Whether that creates additional demand for 20,50 or 70k new houses per year. Depends who you ask.

    Problem with reacting on the fly is migration levels in particular can turn in an instant and decisions on housing supply can take years to convert to homes.

    It’s largely moot for now anyway. We’re not building enough by almost any metric and it seems we’re at full capacity. So keep aiming as high as we can and if it turn out we overshoot in years to come - so be it. It’s better than the alternative.



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    #19388
    mike_cork
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/huge-hike-in-mortgage-rates-for-aib-ebs-and-haven-borrowers/a931379404.html

    Rates rises announced by the AIB group (AIB,EBS + Haven)

    "New fixed rates at AIB, EBS and Haven will increase by between 0.15 percentage points and 0.70 percentage points.

    A rise of 0.70 percentage points is one of the largest mortgage rate rises so far announced by a mainstream bank.

    Variable rates are going up by 0.65 percentage points. The new fixed mortgage rates are effective from tomorrow, June 30."



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    #19389
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782313#Comment_120782313

    home formation numbers are fairly steady across decades, trending slowly down and probably hit bottom now

    you dont react on the fly, these things change over years, you change over years, but you plan and do something, the worst thing to happen is you get a few thousand extra houses

    the original issue was just in response to another poster saying there was stock and no need to build



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    #19390
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782017#Comment_120782017

    Thanks for posting, it's a good example of exactly what I am talking about in that it focusses almost exclusively about what might happen re future population growth and forecasts numbers to accommodate that future growth.

    The only attempt they make to address whether we are ahead/behind/at where we need to be in terms of housing stock at the time of writing is in Section 4.4 Historic Estimates of Housing Demand 2011-2019

    Given the continued, albeit slower, growth in the population over this period it is useful to compare actual housing completions over recent years to estimated demand (Kennedy and Myers, 2019).

    Applying the same methodology used for the projection exercise to the historic data, it is possible to estimate the level of housing demand from 2011 to the present, consistent with the actual change in the population over this period. Our estimates indicate that on average, to keep pace with the growth in the population and changes in household formation, around 27,000 dwellings would have been required per annum from 2011 to 2019. Actual housing completions over this period amounted to around 10,500 per annum. The gap between actual housing completions and the estimate of demand based on population growth implies a significant degree of unmet housing need over this period.

    Essentially they are estimating something they could simply count to get an accurate figure. They are deducing that there has been an implied unmet housing need.

    And the accuracy of the estimates are entirely dependant on what base supply position they are using from 2011, a point in time which the data said we were in oversupply and narrative was it would take a generation to soak it up!

    In all the discussions about our future housing building requirements I have seen lots of estimates of what might happen in the future and lots of estimates about what has happened in the past.

    But I have never seen projections that categorically state this is exactly where we are today in terms of housing capacity, that's our baseline.

    If the only solution to the housing crisis we have today is a to build a certain number of new houses how come nobody has ever calculated that number and categorically stated it?

    i.e Forget about projections for the next 20 years, irrespective of what might happen in the future this is the figure that we need to build as a matter of urgency asap.



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    #19391
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782313#Comment_120782313

    Again, I'm not trying to be a smart alec, but when you say "it seems we’re at full capacity" are you basing that on specific data you have seen or the consensus that's widely accepted?



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    #19392
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782497#Comment_120782497

    Sorry full capacity was meant of our ability to build more housing. With unemployment at 3.8% I think it’s a fair assumption that we don’t have a tonne of builders twiddling their thumbs waiting for a call to build some more houses.



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    #19393
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782542#Comment_120782542

    Fair enough, I'd agree with that.

    I thought you meant our existing stock was at full capacity, and I don't think there is any data to support that idea, hence was wondering where you got that notion from!



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    #19394
    DataDude
    Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782386#Comment_120782386

    Now this is really going to be put a squeeze on things. 5 year fixed rate now at 5% - ouch.

    Up until now I’d have said - buy literally anything you can afford to lock in a cheap mortgage which will protect you from any price drop. Assuming others follow, which they will, that ship has now sailed.



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    #19395
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782497#Comment_120782497

    vacancy rates from the CSO, thats even what the article from the IT used, did you read it?



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    #19396
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782542#Comment_120782542

    they are off doing extensions, attic conversions etc, because people can't move, and the like and could be diverted to building, its a chicken and egg

    most would bite your arm off at guaranteed work

    the lack of steady work is what puts people off building in the first place



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    #19397
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,750 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782597#Comment_120782597

    Interestingly though the Green Rate remains untouched, which means anyone buying a new build is safe from this one.



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    #19398
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782597#Comment_120782597

    Interesting the Green Mortgages are staying put at 3.85%....will be good for people buying new build property and may actually incentivise people to invest in BER upgrades. I'm sure there's an ESG box and "driving customer behaviours" box being ticked inside in AIB as we speak on Climate change reports. Income stress tests at 7% will look interesting for sure



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    #19399
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782678#Comment_120782678

    no wonder there are so many dodgey BERs out there



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    #19400
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782697#Comment_120782697

    these are award winning products dont you know



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    #19401
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782629#Comment_120782629

    Yes, I read it.

    Take the total habitable housing stock and a subtract a % to allow for spare capacity to enable turnover. 6% is a common industry benchmark.

    Multiply the total stock less the spares by the average household size and you will get a figure for what full capacity of our current housing stock is.

    Compare that figure to our current population.

    That will give you a much better idea whether we are at full capacity or not than the number of ads on myhome.

    You might be surprised at the results.



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    #19402
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782740#Comment_120782740

    vacancy numbers from the CSO, these are real world numbers, you don't need anything else, the only variable on this is how easy it is to bring these into the market, you could cut that number by 50% easily to 1%

    way below you 6% above

    the numbers on daft are just a result of the lack of supply same with rental numbers

    why don't you do you sums and show us the numbers



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    #19403
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782781#Comment_120782781

    I've done them before and posted them on here. Nobody disputed them, but they were largely ignored.



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    #19404
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782802#Comment_120782802

    either link to it or post again, sheesh

    why are you ignoring the vacancy rates, thats the answer to you question

    you will find a home much more easily in leitrim than dublin



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    #19405
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782831#Comment_120782831

    I'm ignoring the vacancy rates because I've read the OP, a lenghty back and forth in vacancies is likely to invite mod intervention.

    I had a quick search on here for the previous post but unfortunately the search facility is not what it was!



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    #19406
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782866#Comment_120782866

    a short one will do just fine

    just post the results



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    #19407
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782875#Comment_120782875

    I'm using phone at minute, will post them later.

    In meantime would you agree that in theory it is a reasonable method of calculation to get a picture of where we might be now in terms of spare capacity, if any?



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    #19408
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,750 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782711#Comment_120782711

    Green rate is B3 and up, new builds have to be minimum A3, there's no need for any dodgy-ness really.

    It'll make it more worthwhile for older houses to get to B3 though, being eligible for a green mortgage may add a bit of value to a property at this stage.



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    #19409
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782895#Comment_120782895

    well seeing as these numbers are based on each other, i don't think you need to do any calcs, the average household size is a calculated amount based on the other figures

    so why reverse engineer this

    the CSO has already calculated these figures out for you, its exactly how they get the vacancy numbers

    you reckon a 6% is healthy, this is fine, the number for the whole of ireland is at at 8%, dublin is 2%, it is trending downwards and lets assume in the 8% in the whole of ireland, a fair few of those are not fit to live in

    The issue about the whole of ireland number is , well no one wants to live in leitrim

    and then on top of this you have what is already discussed, population growth, if you don't build more houses, the numbers will trend down further

    it seems simple enough



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    #19410
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782911#Comment_120782911

    yes and I have seen a fair few questionable b3s, this is the issue

    it adds value here it adds value if you sell



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    #19411
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782740#Comment_120782740

    Nonsense. The average household size is currently 2.74. The desired average household size is what we should be targeting here (which is difficult to measure BTW)

    Current household size includes many people forced to move in with parents to save for a house, many people in overcrowded house shares etc.

    All things which are caused by the current undersupply of property.

    EU average is 2.3 per household, and that is including nations where multi-generational families in the home is the norm. That is certainly not the case in ireland at all, what is the case in ireland is students and young professionals crammed into slum-like houseshares in the cities.



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