Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

hometruths · 29-06-2023 8:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120784114#Comment_120784114

I didn't mention anything at all about pensioners, let alone forcing them to downsize.

I simply posted data that contradicts the narrative of that current household size is relatively because of overcrowding caused by the current undersupply of property.

timmyntc · 29-06-2023 8:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120784340#Comment_120784340

That current household size is so large despite a reported huge under-occupation just reinforces the narrative that there are some pensioners etc in mostly empty houses, while the rest are squashed into full rentals or back living with parents.

Ireland has one of the highest under occupancy rates, and Greece one of the lowest, yet household size is very similar for both countries. The reality is neither stat tells the full story.

hometruths · 29-06-2023 8:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120784407#Comment_120784407

That current household size is so large despite a reported huge under-occupation just reinforces the narrative that there are some pensioners etc in mostly empty houses, while the rest are squashed into full rentals or back living with parents.

There very well may be a barbell effect at play in the household size.

But if that is true, the data indicates that the principal cause of that problem is an inefficient allocation of the existing stock. Not an undersupply of new build stock.

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 8:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120783026#Comment_120783026

Getting media attention this morning

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/aib-is-accused-of-discriminating-against-buyers-of-second-hand-homes/a66944850.html

DataDude · 30-06-2023 8:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785721#Comment_120785721

Interesting that there was no mention of it being illegal though and that people could force banks to offer to them.

I don’t really understand the motives of statements like this. It’s clearly part of a ‘green’ agenda and not discriminatory against second hand homes. We bought an older C3 house. Worked out we’d save a tonne of interest getting to B3 so invested in solar panels and some other energy stuff to get us to B2 and then switched. Surely that’s a good incentive for people to have?

And also, if AIB do bow to pressure they won’t drop the non-green rate or move to half way. They’ll just get rid of the discount and everyone will pay the higher amount. Will he be happy then because it’s more ‘fair’?

OEP · 30-06-2023 8:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120783120#Comment_120783120

It would seem that the vacancy rate based on electricity consumption is the more accurate rate, having read both links.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fp/fp-viec/vacantdwellingindicatorsbasedonmeteredelectricityconsumption2021/backgroundnotesandmethodology/

Dav010 · 30-06-2023 8:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120783026#Comment_120783026

Green mortgages with lower fixed rates have been around for a few years, AIB were offering 2.1% fixed for 5 years. They are not specific to new homes so I struggle to see how they could be discriminatory in any actionable way. They reward owners of houses with better Ber rating, irrespective of age, I have properties nearly 20 years old which qualify. I’m not sure how getting a better Green rate is any worse or better than banks having different rates based on LTV.

There are probably a lot of people who wouldn’t spend the cost of getting a Ber rating to see if they qualify. I wonder how many posters/readers here have had a Ber rating in the last two years on their property.

hometruths · 30-06-2023 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785756#Comment_120785756

There is no doubt people's views differ on this.

I notice there is no caveat on the census like on the electricity consumption figures:

CSO Frontier Series outputs may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release.

DataDude · 30-06-2023 8:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785774#Comment_120785774

Yes agree completely. Your LTV point puts a stop to any idea that it’s ‘discriminatory’ to give lower rates to those who are ‘better off’. The only difference I guess is one is clearly risk based whereas the other isn’t (maybe a stretch that higher BER will hold value better long term?)

I think most people way overestimate the cost of improving a BER in many instances. We got our 20 year old house to qualify with less than the cost of our stamp duty. It paid itself back on interest alone (ignoring energy efficiency) in under 12 months.

Dav010 · 30-06-2023 9:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785810#Comment_120785810

While ECB rates were low, people weren’t bothered with that green option, it meant spending a couple of hundred Euro with not much benefit on the rate. Now those that did are benefitting hugely, those that didn’t may feel discriminated against. It is unfortunate, a missed opportunity, but not illegal I suspect.

OEP · 30-06-2023 9:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785793#Comment_120785793

People's views can differ but I think it is fair to say that the census figures are almost certainly too high, given that they felt the need for another form of analysis. The fact they describe it as a point in time estimate is enough to think it is not accurate.

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 11:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785752#Comment_120785752

The problem with ESG is that it's policed and regulated by politicians and the financial sector.

A young couple just after buying a 2nd hand home will have multiple expenses after buying, will have maxed there borrowing capacity and probably won't have the finance needed to get to b3 rating

Need to move away from grants system and bring in a nationwide upgrading program funded by the estimated benefits of that program to the householder, and collected through your electricity bill.

Huge savings on admin, purchasing. Economies of scale (housing estate by estate rather than one off house at random) etc. This way the improvements could be cost neutral for the government, the taxpayer and the householder with huge added benefit of energy security for the nation

At present taxpayers who can't afford these improvements are funding the grant system that wealthier tax payers are availing of.

DataDude · 30-06-2023 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786370#Comment_120786370

I agree completely with your proposals on the second half in terms of how better to fund upgrades.

Disagree with first part. Generally speaking someone who’s able spend several hundred thousand buying and fitting out a house along with solicitor fees and stamp can afford sub €10k for modest energy improvements with half decent finance management.

If you really really can’t, pay less for the house or buy a more efficient one in the first place (or take the penalty of higher mortgage costs). I guess it’s part of the point. Drive down value of older houses to make a clear incentive for existing owners/new buyers to increase energy efficiency of their homes

Timing belt · 30-06-2023 12:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786370#Comment_120786370

have you looked at any of the upgrades on social housing units….it’s not just the wealthy benefiting.

Blut2 · 30-06-2023 12:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786370#Comment_120786370

The state is going to have to move to a far more interventionist policy like this in the middle/late part of this decade. We're currently on track to achieve an _at best_ 29 per cent reduction in our emissions by 2030, instead of our commitment of 51 per cent. To make up the difference (or at least narrow it) the state is going to have get far more involved.

BER upgrades, and solar panel installation, for all houses paid up front by the government (not just those households that can afford to pay for the upgrade and claim a % of back in tax as its done right now) are an easy way to make a big difference. They can recoup the costs over years on electricity bills like you suggest - give 20% of the savings to the household, 80% to the government until the cost is cleared. Everyone wins.

It should be politically popular too as its actually improving people's lives/finances, instead of our far more common to date green taxes.

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 12:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786424#Comment_120786424

Disagree with first part. Generally speaking someone who’s able spend several hundred thousand buying and fitting out a house along with solicitor fees and stamp can afford sub €10k for modest energy improvements with half decent finance management.

If what you say we're true, it would be extremely odd that the proportion of ftb buyers in the market over the last decade were so low when rent was double the repayment terms of a mortgage. It only recovered with loosening of lending limits and shared ownership schemes

If you really really can’t, pay less for the house or buy a more efficient one in the first place (or take the penalty of higher mortgage costs). I guess it’s part of the point. Drive down value of older houses to make a clear incentive for existing owners/new buyers to increase energy efficiency of their homes

I'd be very careful about a policy of deliberately devaluing older homes as this may encourage dilapidation which is already a huge issue

The most environmentally friendly thing anyone can do is make what you have last longer. Current ESG policies widely discourage and penalise this

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 12:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786561#Comment_120786561

How do you think the real squeezed middle (median income +/- 15%) feel about that?

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786576#Comment_120786576

It's also a method of turning nimbys into yimbys plus free real estate for a solar farm

DownByTheGarden · 30-06-2023 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782274#Comment_120782274

Nobody knows, but everyone thinks they know.

Ozark707 · 30-06-2023 1:28pm

Looks like no immediate letup in rates hiking by ECB

The UK’s stubbornly high inflation has convinced senior policymakers at the European Central Bank to maintain their aggressive stance on raising interest rates to avoid being accused of failing to contain price pressures. Several members of the ECB’s rate-setting governing council told the Financial Times that recent criticism of the Bank of England over its struggle to bring down inflation had served as a cautionary tale during private discussions at their annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. “We have seen what happened in the UK and we don’t want the same thing to happen to us,” said a eurozone rate-setter. “It is better to sound a little more hawkish and be prudent about how fast inflation will fall than to be caught out by a negative surprise, which is a problem for a central bank.”

https://www.ft.com/content/92448a30-3740-4ebd-98a9-27757fb3ced0

hometruths · 30-06-2023 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785907#Comment_120785907

Do you they really describe it as a point in time estimate? I would think the whole idea of the census is that it is accurate at that point in time. That accuracy can then be used to make estimates about other timescales.

And it is worth remembering that the CSO never felt the need for another form of analysis. Those questioning the accuracy and feeling the need for another measure consisted entirely people who had a vested interest in what the vacancy figure was.

The CSO themselves under quite intense criticism, steadfastly defended the accuracy of their census vacancy count.

Given the controversy generated by their 2016 census vacancy count, I think the following explanatory statement is laden with meaning in it's brevity.

Pathway four of Housing for All: A New Housing Plan for Ireland, published in September 2021 by the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, looks to address vacancy and the efficient use of existing housing stock. A requirement for more data in this area was identified.

wassie · 30-06-2023 6:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786596#Comment_120786596

The most environmentally friendly thing anyone can do is make what you have last longer. Current ESG policies widely discourage and penalise this

What are these ESG policies you refer to?

Genuine question and not saying your wrong - I ask because I am aware of a several medium rise buildings in Dublin where the owners have decided to gut the building, but retain the shell and core in order to be redeveloped, instead of completely demolishing the existing and build new, specifically as a response to EU Taxonomy requirements.

Beigepaint · 30-06-2023 8:05pm

Listed buildings no?

A building may be a protected structure even if it’s a wreck or has limited value to the disinterested observer.

So legally you can’t just tear down anything you want and start from scratch, even if that would be the most sensible business decision.

wassie · 30-06-2023 8:36pm

No. These are investment driven decisions by the owners.

hometruths · 30-06-2023 8:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120784407#Comment_120784407

Article in the IT today touches on some of this in a local micromarket context - Dingle. The youth have been priced out, most have left and those that remain are crammed into multigenerational housing.

Michael O’Shea, a local auctioneer and a Fianna Fáil municipal district councillor (amazing how often the two go hand in hand), can see there is problem:

“the indigenous people” of Dingle could not afford a house, nor could they get planning to build one, and this was creating the problem in Dingle where commercial interests were buying up new properties to let.

Young people who wanted to live in Dingle town typically had to stay with their parents, and he had come across situations where three, or even four, generations were living in one house across the peninsula from Camp to Annauscaul.

Dingle was virtually “a no-go area” for planning it was so difficult to get permission to build, and at the same time any property coming on the market in the town was being bought up for letting as an Airbnb, he said.

Three or four generations crammed into a house is not ideal, we'd all agree, because commercial interests are snapping up ever property for Airbnb. He's identified both the problem and the cause of the problem.

So what's the auctioneer and Fianna Fail district councillor's solution?

Mr O’Shea has called for more affordable housing, rather than just social housing and has said the option of boat accommodation for summer staff should be looked into.

Build more new housing!! And make it affordable. Who'd have thought it.

Might there be an easier and quicker solution to the problem?

Dr Ó Fionnáin, a local GP who recently announced his intention of running for the Green Party in the next local elections thinks there might be:

There were 1,000 properties billed as Airbnbs in and around Dingle in a search he did recently. Plans to regulate Airbnbs and short-term letting by creating a register would help to free up housing for younger people, he said. “We don’t have a problem with housing stock in Dingle – we have a problem with distribution.”

Good luck to the GP in his election bid. Though if his message is "we have a problem with distribution" and he's running against the Fianna Fail "more affordable housing" auctioneer he might struggle.

Because according to the electricity meter of these 1,000 properties, Dr Ó Fionnáin doesn't know his arse from elbow, and Mr O'Shea will solve all these problems.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2023/06/30/young-families-are-outpriced-why-dingle-is-the-town-with-the-oldest-population-in-ireland/

L1011 · 30-06-2023 8:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120789191#Comment_120789191

Plenty of office buildings have had skeletons retained rather than fully knocked due to wanting better LEED standards. Also there's a number of hotels in Dublin which were built on the skeleton of an old office building for the same reason in whatever the hotel certs are.

It does prevent a lot of new concrete being poured

drogon. · 30-06-2023 8:50pm

In regards to Mortgage relief, what are people's opinions on it ?

There seems to be a cohort of people that seems to be dead set against it, which is fair enough since it goes against interest rate hikes in the first place. But why should buy to let and other investors be able to write off some or all of the interest they pay against the rental income, while the average Joe shouldn't be able to do the same ?