Russia - threadbanned users in OP

That's interesting. Looking at the historical pricing you can see that the Currency controls made a big difference immediately after the invasion but the price has been steadily dropping since last June and is now actually higher than the roughly 83Rb/$ value that they were before those controls were implemented.

From my understanding the main leg of those controls is that Exporters must sell their dollars for Rubles rather than hold on to them. Since exporters these days are pretty much just oil & gas companies (they're probably not flogging many weapons) I guess that means that they're no longer making enough from those sales to prop up the currency.

That means that Russia will probably need to sell more of its foreign reserves and gold etc if they want to try and keep a lid on this. If they don't then their imports are going to keep getting more expensive, thereby driving up inflation. For things like food and drink they can switch to domestic producers but for anything manufactured and especially high end stuff like pharmaceuticals and sanction busting machine parts and electronics there may be no local alternatives.

It's like death by a thousand cuts. On the plus side though, they've managed to solve male unemployment by having them get conscripted or flee the country!

An investigation? I wonder what that will turn up?

If they haven't moved into a ground floor apartment by now I have no sympathy for them.

Long thread explaining what is likely to be the genesis of Progozhin's hatred for Shoigu:

I think, like most things, it's complicated. Russia is wealthier than Ukraine but that wealth is concentrated heavily in the urban elite. That makes direct comparison with wealth stats difficult because of how skewed Russian wealth is. In the rural and regional areas of Russia, that most of the armed forces are drawn from they often don't have paved roads or running water. Urban dwellers in Ukraine would certainly be a lot better off than those people.

There were reports that the Russian soldiers were shocked when they saw some of the housing in Ukraine because it was far better than how they lived and of course we all saw the scenes of them looting appliances and toilet bowls to bring back home.

Some stats about Russia:

source

In contrast Ukrainians appear to have better sanitation by and large. The World bank uses the following definition:

For Russia: (figures are %'s in 5 year increments from 2000 on the left to 2020 on the right)

Ukraine:

That she had a history of sleepwalking and thought double glazing was an extravagance she could do without.

I always felt that Pre-February 2022, that the way Ukraine retake Luhansk and Donetsk were if they were to join the EU, their standard of living rises dramatically and the Russo-Ukrainians get very jealous. The EU invests heavily in the neighbouring areas and the left behinds get FOMO.

They originally thought they would have a higher standard of living with Russian, which was a reason why they were happy with the annexation.

I truly believe that the vast majority of people only really truly care about their standard of living and not what flag is flying.

Russia has no particular desire to get its story straight. In terms of politics, the Russian mindset is that lying is as noble as telling the truth. They've no interest in telling the truth or even giving a consistent story where doing so won't benefit them. This is an interesting and quite fundamental divergence in thought between the West and Russia. It's not like Western politicians do not lie their pants off in many instances, but there's an inherent shame about that when it's brought to light, and it's still the ideal that truth is ultimately better than lies. Not so in Russia - both have parity, and power is the true ideal.

This has been cited as a major stumbling block in the quest for Russia and western nations to come to a true understanding. Russian politicians assume all western politicians look at the world in the same deeply cynical way that they do, as if that is the natural order. Western politicians mistakenly believed at times that Russian politicians had ethics.

In relation to the Storm Shadow soundbite, it's an obvious and transparent lie, but Russia doesn't care about this at all. They've nothing to lose in saying it, and they must find the Western indignation almost amusing. If they get a few western contrarians parroting the soundbite, all the better.

Especially in the Rural areas, things are bad enough for ordinary Russians or other groups. The glitz and glamour are noticeably absent once you leave the city's. But even there, they have their poorer side too. Th Vodka is the standard medication to take the sharp edge's off life.

Perhaps target the Vodka production and cause revolution?

Wonder what the plan is

Detonate or retreat

July 5th.

Yes, but I'd say that if / when Ukraine has one major break though, the rest will fold. The main aim and objective ( and now more than ever after the Prigozhin episode) of the Russian soldiers is survival first, second and third.

If and when they blow the plant I presume the US have to respond as if it was a nuclear weapon being deployed…..

"The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties — something that bloodthirsty Russian commanders don’t care about. It is doubtful that any Western military could do any better without air superiority."

Good piece from the Wapo

Or just go into Russia and go around the defences and attack them in the rear.

Pop up to undefended Moscow on the way for some milk

Rare Zaluzhny interview.

He's saying what's completely obvious but few seem to want to acknowledge. Ukraine needs more help. Predictions of Russian routs and collapses, useless platitudes, thoughts and prayers, etc. aren't going to cut it.

Link without paywall https://archive.ph/2nyYu

If they do it, I'd expect NATO air strikes to cripple the Russian military and sink the Black Sea fleet within hours.