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What am I missing with bank mortgage interest rates?

  • 17-06-2023 10:29am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭newmember2


    Variable rate is lower than the fixed rate yet most people are fixing?



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,266 ✭✭✭naughtysmurf


    Think that’s usually the case, some people prefer a fixed rate for their own future budgeting, sense of stability etc, some people don’t mind the potential risks or benefits of a variable rate





  • People are expecting rates to go up and want to lock in the current fixed rates.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,364 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    The certainty bit.... some people prefer to have the certain when they are doing financial planning and some don't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    The relevant question is why aren't banks - who like to make a profit - not pushing up variable rates above fixed rate ? About half of all mortgages are variable (including trackers) so there is a lot of potential profit sitting there.

    If you can think of a credible answer then maybe a variable rate is the better option. However, if you can't think of one perhaps variable rate holders are just living in 'borrowed' time...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,598 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    As deposit rates are so low, their profits on mortgages have already increased.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,598 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Here are current rates for less than 60% LTV


    60-80% LTV:


    80-90% LTV:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,788 ✭✭✭The J Stands for Jay


    I fixed last year at 1.95% for seven years. Could've got a lower variable rate. Given hindsight, can you see why I fixed.

    As for the lender, they have me locked in for 7 years of interest. If I was variable, I'd be shopping round to mitigate the increases in variable rate



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,876 ✭✭✭daheff


    i believe that Irish banks are slow in increasing deposit rates so that the extra they make from those deposits offsets the extra they should need to charge on mortgages. I feel that the banks are trying to hold back on mortgage increases as much as they can by not paying depositors what they should. Banks may be afraid of a tsunami of mortgage defaults if rates rise too quickly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 172 ✭✭pat_sconce


    All tracker rates have gone up in direct tandem with ECB.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    Correct. That's what makes them trackers ;⁠-⁠)



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,364 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    That is not how it is done. Just like car dealers don't sell generic cars, banks don't provide generic mortgages - they sell financial products which are modelled over the life of the product not short term market conditions - that is where all the quads type guys come in. And for reasons I will never understand, the the Irish boys and girls went and modelled trackers against the lender of last resort!



  • Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭cal naughton


    Bank of Scotland Ireland introduced Tracker mortgages into the Irish market and was eating the Irish bank's lunch so they inevitability had to follow them.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,364 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Except it was the dog's dinner they were eating and on top of which just because someone else does something foolish doe not mean you should follow them. I seen some bad decision made because the models were complex and the management did not fully understand them, but this, this was basic banking principles.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    That Avant entire term option is great imo.

    I would have done that if I could have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,876 ✭✭✭daheff


    Well can you explain why variable rate mortgages here went from being one of the most expensive to least expensive in Europe over the course of about a year (where ECB raised rates)? And deposit rates didn't budge?


    Banks fund their borrowings in the market too - they just seem to be better funded /more stability in funding these days than back in the Tiger era.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,876 ✭✭✭daheff



    thankfully for me i managed to refinance a 10yr last summer @ about 2.1 %. Lightyear & Raisin paying ~3% on savings, so am in a good spot because of that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    While they have access to the market they don't really need it these days. They've more deposits than they need. This is partly because households and firms are financially better off (higher savings less debt) but also because there is less competition and banks leaving l.

    The better funding position of Irish banks (or to be more precise the greater reliance on deposit funding) means they are less exposed to movements in policy rates.

    Irish banks have increased variable rates they've just not increased them by as much as other countries. We'll get there eventually I would imagine but there are a couple of reasons why they've not been as quick as the rest of Europe:

    Competition - the lack of competition on the deposit side means they haven't felt the same funding pressure as banks in other countries. By waiting they reduce the bad press. A year of ECB rate increases and we're conditioned to the idea of a higher cost of borrowing.

    The first part of the year those remaining banks were more interested in absorbing the new loans that transferred from Ulster and KBC. Wouldn't surprise me if their systems couldn't handle increasing rates at the same time ... They're mostly transferred now so they can turn their focus to increasing rates.

    I don't think mortgage arrears is such a burning issue. Yes there are legacy loans from before the last crisis but the really bad ones have been sold off. The rest have had a decade to pay down the balance. Most new lending over the last decade has been sensible, if not because of the banks own lending standards because of the mortgage rules.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 172 ✭✭pat_sconce


    Your post suggested that banks were not increasing variable rates and you said these variable rates included trackers.

    It might have been badly worded by you as you acknowledge trackers did increase.


    I believe the value of non tracker standard variable rate mortgages is quite low, hence the banks don't have the same urgency with those rates and give a pr response that low deposit rates allow them offer low variable mortgage rates. In reality they are making supercharged profits with net interest margins probably close to 2.5% or possibly even higher.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭Q&A


    Please reread my post but carefully this time. At no point did I suggest variable rates were not going up.

    As for the value of non tracker variable mortgages its €10 billion. That's out of a total mortgage book of €78 billion. I wouldn't describe it as low. It's the equivalent of a years worth of new lending.

    Margins are increasing and a year into an a rate hiking cycle Irish banks can't be said to have lead the charge on rate increases. However, at some point they may turn to variable rate mortgages to prop-up/supplement margin growth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 172 ✭✭pat_sconce


    Some say the mortgage book is in excess of €85bn. But whatever figure used, it is 12%-13% of the market.

    Household deposits are about €130 billion.

    So less than 8% of household deposits are lent out as variable mortgages and the banks are getting excellent pr by saying deposit rates are low so they can keep variable rates low.

    I've no problem with that as my pension has been quite overweight in Aib and boi shares since the ECB started raising rates.



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