Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

DataDude · 30-06-2023 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786370#Comment_120786370

I agree completely with your proposals on the second half in terms of how better to fund upgrades.

Disagree with first part. Generally speaking someone who’s able spend several hundred thousand buying and fitting out a house along with solicitor fees and stamp can afford sub €10k for modest energy improvements with half decent finance management.

If you really really can’t, pay less for the house or buy a more efficient one in the first place (or take the penalty of higher mortgage costs). I guess it’s part of the point. Drive down value of older houses to make a clear incentive for existing owners/new buyers to increase energy efficiency of their homes

Timing belt · 30-06-2023 12:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786370#Comment_120786370

have you looked at any of the upgrades on social housing units….it’s not just the wealthy benefiting.

Blut2 · 30-06-2023 12:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786370#Comment_120786370

The state is going to have to move to a far more interventionist policy like this in the middle/late part of this decade. We're currently on track to achieve an _at best_ 29 per cent reduction in our emissions by 2030, instead of our commitment of 51 per cent. To make up the difference (or at least narrow it) the state is going to have get far more involved.

BER upgrades, and solar panel installation, for all houses paid up front by the government (not just those households that can afford to pay for the upgrade and claim a % of back in tax as its done right now) are an easy way to make a big difference. They can recoup the costs over years on electricity bills like you suggest - give 20% of the savings to the household, 80% to the government until the cost is cleared. Everyone wins.

It should be politically popular too as its actually improving people's lives/finances, instead of our far more common to date green taxes.

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 12:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786424#Comment_120786424

Disagree with first part. Generally speaking someone who’s able spend several hundred thousand buying and fitting out a house along with solicitor fees and stamp can afford sub €10k for modest energy improvements with half decent finance management.

If what you say we're true, it would be extremely odd that the proportion of ftb buyers in the market over the last decade were so low when rent was double the repayment terms of a mortgage. It only recovered with loosening of lending limits and shared ownership schemes

If you really really can’t, pay less for the house or buy a more efficient one in the first place (or take the penalty of higher mortgage costs). I guess it’s part of the point. Drive down value of older houses to make a clear incentive for existing owners/new buyers to increase energy efficiency of their homes

I'd be very careful about a policy of deliberately devaluing older homes as this may encourage dilapidation which is already a huge issue

The most environmentally friendly thing anyone can do is make what you have last longer. Current ESG policies widely discourage and penalise this

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 12:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786561#Comment_120786561

How do you think the real squeezed middle (median income +/- 15%) feel about that?

Villa05 · 30-06-2023 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786576#Comment_120786576

It's also a method of turning nimbys into yimbys plus free real estate for a solar farm

DownByTheGarden · 30-06-2023 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120782274#Comment_120782274

Nobody knows, but everyone thinks they know.

Ozark707 · 30-06-2023 1:28pm

Looks like no immediate letup in rates hiking by ECB

The UK’s stubbornly high inflation has convinced senior policymakers at the European Central Bank to maintain their aggressive stance on raising interest rates to avoid being accused of failing to contain price pressures. Several members of the ECB’s rate-setting governing council told the Financial Times that recent criticism of the Bank of England over its struggle to bring down inflation had served as a cautionary tale during private discussions at their annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. “We have seen what happened in the UK and we don’t want the same thing to happen to us,” said a eurozone rate-setter. “It is better to sound a little more hawkish and be prudent about how fast inflation will fall than to be caught out by a negative surprise, which is a problem for a central bank.”

https://www.ft.com/content/92448a30-3740-4ebd-98a9-27757fb3ced0

hometruths · 30-06-2023 4:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120785907#Comment_120785907

Do you they really describe it as a point in time estimate? I would think the whole idea of the census is that it is accurate at that point in time. That accuracy can then be used to make estimates about other timescales.

And it is worth remembering that the CSO never felt the need for another form of analysis. Those questioning the accuracy and feeling the need for another measure consisted entirely people who had a vested interest in what the vacancy figure was.

The CSO themselves under quite intense criticism, steadfastly defended the accuracy of their census vacancy count.

Given the controversy generated by their 2016 census vacancy count, I think the following explanatory statement is laden with meaning in it's brevity.

Pathway four of Housing for All: A New Housing Plan for Ireland, published in September 2021 by the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, looks to address vacancy and the efficient use of existing housing stock. A requirement for more data in this area was identified.

wassie · 30-06-2023 6:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120786596#Comment_120786596

The most environmentally friendly thing anyone can do is make what you have last longer. Current ESG policies widely discourage and penalise this

What are these ESG policies you refer to?

Genuine question and not saying your wrong - I ask because I am aware of a several medium rise buildings in Dublin where the owners have decided to gut the building, but retain the shell and core in order to be redeveloped, instead of completely demolishing the existing and build new, specifically as a response to EU Taxonomy requirements.

Beigepaint · 30-06-2023 8:05pm

Listed buildings no?

A building may be a protected structure even if it’s a wreck or has limited value to the disinterested observer.

So legally you can’t just tear down anything you want and start from scratch, even if that would be the most sensible business decision.

wassie · 30-06-2023 8:36pm

No. These are investment driven decisions by the owners.

hometruths · 30-06-2023 8:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120784407#Comment_120784407

Article in the IT today touches on some of this in a local micromarket context - Dingle. The youth have been priced out, most have left and those that remain are crammed into multigenerational housing.

Michael O’Shea, a local auctioneer and a Fianna Fáil municipal district councillor (amazing how often the two go hand in hand), can see there is problem:

“the indigenous people” of Dingle could not afford a house, nor could they get planning to build one, and this was creating the problem in Dingle where commercial interests were buying up new properties to let.

Young people who wanted to live in Dingle town typically had to stay with their parents, and he had come across situations where three, or even four, generations were living in one house across the peninsula from Camp to Annauscaul.

Dingle was virtually “a no-go area” for planning it was so difficult to get permission to build, and at the same time any property coming on the market in the town was being bought up for letting as an Airbnb, he said.

Three or four generations crammed into a house is not ideal, we'd all agree, because commercial interests are snapping up ever property for Airbnb. He's identified both the problem and the cause of the problem.

So what's the auctioneer and Fianna Fail district councillor's solution?

Mr O’Shea has called for more affordable housing, rather than just social housing and has said the option of boat accommodation for summer staff should be looked into.

Build more new housing!! And make it affordable. Who'd have thought it.

Might there be an easier and quicker solution to the problem?

Dr Ó Fionnáin, a local GP who recently announced his intention of running for the Green Party in the next local elections thinks there might be:

There were 1,000 properties billed as Airbnbs in and around Dingle in a search he did recently. Plans to regulate Airbnbs and short-term letting by creating a register would help to free up housing for younger people, he said. “We don’t have a problem with housing stock in Dingle – we have a problem with distribution.”

Good luck to the GP in his election bid. Though if his message is "we have a problem with distribution" and he's running against the Fianna Fail "more affordable housing" auctioneer he might struggle.

Because according to the electricity meter of these 1,000 properties, Dr Ó Fionnáin doesn't know his arse from elbow, and Mr O'Shea will solve all these problems.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2023/06/30/young-families-are-outpriced-why-dingle-is-the-town-with-the-oldest-population-in-ireland/

L1011 · 30-06-2023 8:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120789191#Comment_120789191

Plenty of office buildings have had skeletons retained rather than fully knocked due to wanting better LEED standards. Also there's a number of hotels in Dublin which were built on the skeleton of an old office building for the same reason in whatever the hotel certs are.

It does prevent a lot of new concrete being poured

drogon. · 30-06-2023 8:50pm

In regards to Mortgage relief, what are people's opinions on it ?

There seems to be a cohort of people that seems to be dead set against it, which is fair enough since it goes against interest rate hikes in the first place. But why should buy to let and other investors be able to write off some or all of the interest they pay against the rental income, while the average Joe shouldn't be able to do the same ?

Zenify · 30-06-2023 10:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120789404#Comment_120789404

Same reason they are able to claim lots of other things like insurance, maintenance, rates etc.

Mr Hindley · 01-07-2023 8:39am

Supply still going nowhere fast...

The Student · 01-07-2023 9:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120789404#Comment_120789404

Because the average Joe does not pay income tax or capital gains tax on their property unlike landlords.

Villa05 · 01-07-2023 11:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120788901#Comment_120788901

This is the area of non-ESG (environmental, social and governance) compliant offices, many of which are already on their way to becoming “stranded assets”.

If a building does not meet ESG requirements and the cost of improving it to satisfy these exceeds the required market return, the building in question can be considered a stranded asset.

A scarcity of materials and competition for labour and expertise is unlikely to see these costs abate in the next few years as the scale of the issue becomes apparent. The Bannon office team estimates than less than 15 per cent of Dublin’s current office stock is actually ESG compliant

https://www.irishtimes.com/property/commercial-property/2022/10/12/owners-of-environmentally-unfriendly-offices-are-in-for-a-rollercoaster-ride/

Uk

Without these changes, there remains a real risk that the office sector will face the same blight currently impacting many of the UK’s more secondary high street and shopping centre assets, with redundant office buildings left to become vacant as they fail to meet legislative or investor needs.

Villa05 · 01-07-2023 1:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120789357#Comment_120789357

That story belongs in the Waterford Whisperer not the Irish Times

Ireland: where facts Trump satire.

J_1980 · 01-07-2023 1:51pm

Just been to couple of viewings today.

first one totally overrun despite being priced at feb23 price at ask.

second one cheaper house. Foreign buyer making cash offer 10% above ask straight away in front of everyone.

not surprised about the low supply, you’re mad net selling here. Property is still too cheap.

Villa05 · 01-07-2023 2:03pm

Derelict and lost to fire this morning

State sponsored vandalism

https://www.buildingsofireland.ie/buildings-search/building/21517010/the-sailors-home-ocurry-street-limerick-municipal-borough-limerick-limerick

https://www.live95fm.ie/news/live95-news/breaking-fire-in-city-centre-devastates-historical-building-while-second-fire-burns-close-by/

Villa05 · 01-07-2023 3:16pm

A decent forecast on US inflation predicting the falls will reverse next month in regular inflation and by September in core inflation. This would result in interest rates rising further than many general forecasts

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1674773257541525505?t=qz1ssxpmcl4fBLonDyMMFQ&s=19

drogon. · 01-07-2023 4:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120790508#Comment_120790508

Well the average Joe pays enough tax to the tax man.. The interest relief will just offset some of the tax they pay to the tax man.

The Student · 01-07-2023 5:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120792040#Comment_120792040

The vast majority of landlords are also your " average joe". Very few of them sole source of income comes from rental income.

drogon. · 01-07-2023 7:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120792187#Comment_120792187

Fair enough, I am just saying why when corporation, business or landlords gets tax cuts and subsidies they somehow don't add to the inflation. But hey give something to the average Joe that is a different story.