Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

But isn't the point of having the "likely to pass" criteria to ensure we only have one bp.

What do you suggest the stakeholders will use to come to the opinion that it is likely to pass and now is the time?

I think the, 'likely to pass' criteria was intentionally vague. Combined with the 7 year minimum between further polls, designed to prevent the instability of pushing for one every time it rains but not tying the SoS to specifics which would potentially bind them to calling it/not calling it at an inconvenient time.

Like much of the GFA, an exercise in realpolitik over specific ideology.

While I agree with the two posters that the uk and ireland would be in close contact with each other if it seemed to be getting close to a tipping point. But, what exactly is going to determine the tipping point? I suspect Francie will claim it will happen as soon as a plan is ready but i think opinion polls will still be used to judge the popularity of any plan and if the response isn't positive then the bp won't happen.

What if under these circumstances the opinion polls have it not passing, under this hypothetical you think the bp would just go ahead anyways?

I suppose what I am trying to find out if what you are thinking could involve a scenario where public opinion is against what is put before them but the government might just claim to be ready to force a border poll ?

If not, then are we not back to opinion polls playing an important role?

I don’t know how many people are emigrating from ni to roi or vice versa, but it’s not very many. I know a few people who now work in Dublin but commute from ni and say they would never ever move home to there.

so that tells us that the vast majority of southerners like living in the south and the vast majority of northerners like living in the north.

so when you paint ‘our country is better than yours’, it’s just arrogant nonsense. The two countries are different and have their pros and cons.

Nor are the other two minorities

The way you present the issue is interesting: “I do know a damn sight more living in the North and working in the South, a lot fewer the other way (due to lower salaries, not some great moral quandary)”

someone partisan the other way would say it’s due to higher cost of living in south.

I though take a more rounded opinion. It’s because of higher salaries in roi AND lower cost of living in ni. They are having their cake and eating it. Who can blame them.

Agreed. We have a huge public sector that would immediately need significant pay raises. This week food is 25% dearer down south, clothes 17% dearer and entertainment 38% dearer.

it’s dramatic. I was in Dublin for a day a couple of weeks ago and I was shocked at prices of snacks etc.

With pension entitlements coming in for every employee in Ireland plus the planned living wage cost of living in Ireland is going to go through the roof so if you think it's dear now you ain't seen nothing yet.

It’s hard to raise a young family now in Belfast with the price of drink!

the weekly price checker says average price of pint in neighbourhood pub in Uk is more than a £1 cheaper than neighbourhood pub in ROI. Of course we can always find exceptions. Is your post suggesting that the cost of living is not much higher in ROI?

You pointed out how shocked you were by the price of, 'snacks' in Dublin, I was merely pointing out that I don't think it is much cheaper getting by in Belfast, bar housing costs.

I've certainly noticed a substantial narrowing of the gap in terms of supermarket prices recently, fuel is more expensive in the North. I haven't paid utilities in the North in too long to compare, though I believe my mobile phone bill is quite substantially higher than the equivalent would be in the North.

If you were to ask me which city is the best value for a night out/a meal/entertainment, I wouldn't be pointing to the expense of Dublin while ignoring the massive increase in costs in Belfast since I last lived there.

The biggest problem is that you're comparing apples to oranges when talking about costs in isolation; a bigger factor is disposable income after the bills are paid; I know what I'd be paid if I took a comparable job to my own in the North, and even with lower costs, I'd have a lot less in my pocket at the end of the month. I think this is largely the case across most strata of society.

I do understand the appeal of living North/working South, trying to get the best of both worlds. For me, the politics of NI don't make it worthwhile

@downcow "Back to my point. The only true measure is that people in ni seem happy to stay in ni and people in roi seem happy to stay in roi."

Had Brexit not occurred, I think you would be right. But, even with the Protocol and Windsor framework, there will be a divergence between the North and South economies. It is hard to imagine the UK subvention continuing at the same level when the UK economy is so damaged.

I think , from recent opinion polls (whatever they may be worth which perhaps is not much) that people in South are more likely to just welcome unification if it happens rather than to actively seek it. In a border poll they will tend to vote for a united Ireland. Pre-Brexit, the gains from a united Ireland for people in the North were relatively small. But those gains are likely to grow as the EU and UK drift further apart.