Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

Options
16465676970110

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The Gov that will drive a UI, if they choose to do so, will not be the Irish Gov - it will be the UK Gov.

    The NHS in NI, plus many other public services, is suffering greatly with funds drying up - mainly because of the antics of the DUP. Now that could be enough for a few percentage points towards a UI. A period of a thousand cuts could start a move that will gather momentum and be hard to stop. Under a Labour Gov (but not Starmer) it would be a good diversion from other difficulties.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,612 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    The only true measure will be what way people vote in a poll, Downcow.

    There are countless reasons that someone could be better off living somewhere else but chooses to remain where they're from. It is an absolutely crazy take to assume that because people haven't left, it implies some sort of approval for remaining part of the UK, and skirts a little close to, 'if you don't like it then f*ck off somewhere else' for my comfort.

    I certainly wouldn't assume that should a border poll pass, that a huge percentage of people who didn't vote for it either would or should move to Britain.

    The well reported Brain Drain issues in NI certainly don't paint the sunshine and rainbows, 'tiny tiny percentage' you seem to think leave NI for pastures new.

    A perfect example of how you can interpret data to mean whatever you want if you have already come to your conclusion in advance.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Someone I know is visiting London with a young child who has got seriously sick but not life threatening. A friend of the mother was contacted and said that it would be a week before a doctors appointment, and the A&E wait could be days. That is the current state of the NHS - which is 75 years old now, and the pride of the British electorate.

    The NHS is often quoted as the jewel that prevents a UI. It will not be that for long if the decline in the NHS continues at the current pace with strikes by nurses and doctors.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152




  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You cling to the notion that the UK Government doesn't want Northern Ireland, without any real basis for that thought. However, even if you are correct, that doesn't mean that they will push a united Ireland if the time ever comes that they want rid of it, particularly the type of united Ireland that you espouse.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Those who play the long game would disagree.

    There has been, in media and in political circles a very obvious ramping up of the UI conversation. The fear of partitionists and Unionists about this is more than adequately visible, in deed and vocally.

    How long you want to ignore this is your concern. But there is no doubt a cohort is trying their best to ignore it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There is a song by Talking Heads that adequately describes your bandwagon.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hL_ATXJ6JU



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Rather than memes and youtube links to try and demean posters, lets look at what the ARINS project is advising:

    We argue for a sustained and systemic process of discussion and deliberation on the basis of the findings of both the survey and the focus groups, which collectively point to lack of knowledge, lack of prior awareness and lack of prior discussion, and—for the focus groups—to openness to discussion. It is our view, therefore, that it is too early to provide an expert political blueprint for a united Ireland; it is, however, time to engage the public in participation and deliberation about the future. A deliberative process, bringing people together on an all-island basis and involving diverse voices, including unionist civil society, can play a very important role in building not only 'losers' consent', but also positive and widespread engagement with the challenges of change. An open deliberative process can build a greater degree of acceptance, whatever the outcome of referendums, by those who end up on the 'losing side'.  



    I don't see even FF and FG resisting this pressure for much longer. It is wholly irresponsible for an Irish government which knows a proposal is required to not begin the process.

    Project MUSE - Time for Deliberation, not Decision, on the Shape of a New United Ireland: Evidence from the ARINS Survey Focus Groups (jhu.edu)



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    As your article says "The recorded support for Irish unity in the Northern Ireland survey was the lowest recorded in post-Brexit polling". At 27%, there is no pressure.

    "There was a general sense, especially in the Northern Ireland groups, that continued devolution would be the best means by which a transition to a united Ireland could be facilitated in the short run, or by which the consent of unionists might be facilitated to something which they oppose"

    Wow, in your article, there are people talking about one of the options I have put forward. In fact, look at this......it even admits that people are talking about it:

    "Post-survey discussion has highlighted the less strong opposition and somewhat higher support for a 'devolved' rather than 'integrated' model of a united Ireland in Northern Ireland (details below). It has been argued that the Irish government should promote a devolved model to strengthen the potential of winning 'losers' consent'—particularly from unionists—should a united Ireland be decided in referendums."

    Well, well, well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    I think it is more correct to say that there is a cohort trying to invent or forment pressure/momentum towards unity but to date it hasn't filtered down to the general public as seen in numerous opinion polls.

    But there doesn't need to be momentum for a party to produce a plan. Those who want unity just need to produce a plan and see what reaction there is in the opinion polls.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


     it is, however, time to engage the public in participation and deliberation about the future. A deliberative process, bringing people together on an all-island basis and involving diverse voices, including unionist civil society, can play a very important role in building not only 'losers' consent', but also positive and widespread engagement with the challenges of change.


    The above is their reccomendation, that you have ignored, again to divert elsewhere.

    there are people talking about one of the options I have put forward. In fact, look at this......it even admits that people are talking about it:

    You are talking about alternative solutions, we know this, so are some others, nobody has denied that. Why you think you have a gotcha here I don't know, maybe it is desperation?

    What you were challenged to do is find enough people wanting your outcomes and somebody of substance, politically, looking for your alternatives...you have failed to do that, repeatedly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    So how is the recommendation of Arins that consultation should begin evidence that the government is under pressure? Most of their output stays within the confines of their own website and rarely makes much of an impact in the media.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You described them in post 1927 as the alternatives that nobody is looking for. Now you admit that people are talking about alternative solutions.

    I must thank you though for finding the research that demonstrates that the focus groups in Northern Ireland are favouring one of the many ideas I put forward and that the academics are openly discussing it. You have answered your own question to me.

    So maybe in future, you won't be so quick to dismiss ideas that others put forward.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch, several posters including myself have pointed out to you who talks about these alternatives - those without an understanding of why devolution has failed and those loons like Jim Allister, when it is last ditch territory.

    the challenge to you remains, show us any sort of groundswell want of these solutions or any credible politician or party looking for it.

    You have failed to do this, again and again.

    Might it be that politicians of substance agree with the ARINS assessment that it is not necessarily the smart solution just because some want it and that is why they reject proposing it?

    But it is mistaken to argue that the Irish government should therefore commit to a model of unity, with the current territory of Northern Ireland having a devolved assembly and executive. Even if such a commitment made the outcome of a referendum more likely to be in favour of a united Ireland, and that is by no means certain, the discussion in the focus groups indicates that people's views are not fixed or well informed. A firm commitment to a devolved model offers no clear path by which those institutions would operate in accordance with the clear wishes of the populations—in a manner that ensured peace and increased the welfare of people North and South. 

    Seems to me the 'devolved' solution takes on water very quickly, even in discussions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You just posted the research that ordinary people in focus groups in Northern Ireland preferred the option of devolution within a united Ireland!!!!!!

    That some of the academics and politicians don't want it and want to push the people towards a different solution is a little anti-democratic and going against the people's wishes, don't you think?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Vailianjt but failed effort to pretend you have a gotcha.

    We know there are people who talk about this option. But there is this observation too:

    the discussion in the focus groups indicates that people's views are not fixed or well informed.

    We also know nobody of substance or political clout is remotely in favour.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Usually when politicians and academics don't like what they are hearing from the people, they describe them as ill-informed. Turning up their noses at the people. That is an opinion, not by those who conducted the research, but by someone commenting on it.

    All I am asking is that you civilly debate and discuss proposals and options for Northern Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I have debated you.

    No form of devolution will work because 100 years of trying has failed abysmally.

    Only the mis-informed would try to say that it has. And we know they exist.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Day after day the narrative moves away from a singular United Ireland towards the consideration of other constructs. As Slugger (who you have quoted on occasion) puts it only yesterday:

    "A more enlightened constitutional view (like that of Micheál Martin’s Shared Island Initiative) would view the prospect of the forced integration of a ‘failed northern state’ into the south with the degree of outright scepticism it rightly deserves."

    Pretty much crushing your ideas and as the demographer puts it:

    "There has been demographic change. But the demographics on current trends are bringing neither an Irish Catholic majority nor, by extension, a united Ireland."

    Next, and not to bang my own drum again, the demographer also says:

    "and now what’s going to matter is identity, immigrant groups, all these things we’ve talked about."

    Yup, it's that darned middle minority of Northern Irelanders identifying as Northern Irelanders messing up your dreams again. And finally, this bit:

    "Without a theory of government, nationalism will remain lost."

    In postulating various forms of federalism and con-federalism, I am doing nationalism a favour, putting forward ideas of government that may get a united Ireland over the line.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Only read a bit of that.

    Nobody, certainly not me, is advocating 'forcing' anything. That would be those trying to force a very minority want on the people.

    As per the GFA, a UI will come about because that is what the majority want.

    You, and I and many many more signed up to that principle.

    Nobody of significance wants your alternatives blanch = fact.

    When they do, we can look at it.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    Why is Scotland allowed leave the union and not get gerrymandered into different jurisdictions within her of unionists majority but Ireland can't?

    If Scotland is allowed leave the union as one sovereign independent state why cant Ireland? Why does Ireland need to be fedral and Scotland doesn't.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    That’s a legitimate belief to hold. I tend to disagree though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Same old same old. I’ve heard similar for decades. It’s just not happening.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Not what I said. Of course loads head off to attractive destinations worldwide.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Wise up francie. What happened the great new light ‘Irelands future’. Coming to a phone box near you!



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Spot on Blanche. Although if I am honest I would like the Ui movement to elect francie as their strategist.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    So francie. If a majority of the people on ni said they want devolution in a Ui would you then accept that



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Absolutely.

    How’s devolution working at the minute?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    In the case the scots votes for independence. Do you think it should be gerrymandered into different jurisdictions so unionists have a majority in a part?


    Is it laughable that Scotland should leave the union as one unitary independent state. I dont think it is. I think that was exactly what was campaigned in 2014 vote yet some are saying here that it is laughable that Ireland leave the union in as one unitary independent state.



This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement