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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,921 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Sums up the reality of the housing situation in Ireland perfectly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,077 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    and everywhere else



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭OEP


    But doesn't society improve by not accepting the status quo? That's why women can vote, black people aren't slaves in the US, no apartheid in South Africa, .... . It's never going to be perfect, but we can try.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,986 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its one thing to not accept the status quo and work to reform the system (ie fix the housing market in this thread/Ireland's context).

    Its another to willfully ignore facts in reality, the way our current government has - taking in 100,000 migrants a year, when theres already a severe shortage of housing in the country. At some stage the entirely logical/reasonable question of "where are these people going to live" has to be asked, because housing right now is very much a limited resource in the country.

    It'd be different if the state was first building tens of thousands of housing units to house anyone who needed it (migrant or otherwise), and then importing large numbers of people. Thats a debate that could be had reasonably, with lots of arguments for/against. But doing it this way instead, importing the people before having the housing, just fails everyone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    when its an emergency, then you gotta make do

    do you think there isn't one in poland with over 1.5 mil refugees and 10 millions temporarily



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30 syrgian



    I agree that the advice to start a new rent in Dublin with sky-high rents and then having kids is also terrible. I had a 3-year contract when I had my first kid, so I could count on it for the medium term.

    But if the alternative is to get into a mortgage that the bank only considers safe as long as both work and have no kids, I wouldn't pick either. I would definitely leave, which I easily can, as I pointed out in my post. If I was truly trapped in Dublin and did not have a long-term rental stability, I would probably buy whatever I can just to have stability, but I would feel very uneasy getting into a mortgage with two salaries and no kids, and then shortly after dropping to 1 salary or relying on the expensive (and fully-booked) Crèche system.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    the problem with a 3 year lease is there are too many way for the landlord to terminate it

    now why would they want to kick out a paying tenant? who knows, but its not really much stability

    you don't necessarily need to max out what you can borrow is the answer I suppose, the bank can never assume you are going to have zero kids or 8

    and currently what they will lend you is not maxing that because rules were put in place to stop that happening.

    if you can't buy within that, well then leave yes

    its not much better than renting though, you could always sell and leave

    like that 3 years could be 70k in rent... vs 70k in mortgage payments



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,651 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Accepting or defying the status quo of a society is one thing. Trying to deny the reality of nature is entirely another. Disenfranchisement of women, slavery or apartheid governance of a state are all, dare I say it, social constructs that exist only because a given society wanted them to exist for any number of reasons. The finite supply of resources or the inherent instinct of human beings to act in their own self-interest are facts of nature.  



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    and yet you have roads, schools, tax, how did they all happen



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,651 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Tax is the redistribution of resources, generally by a state. It doesn’t create resources in and of itself.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    it is the socialization of money for the greater good

    you are the state



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,651 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Taxes have existed for as long as there has been a state, and they were more often than not used to pay for wars. The words “for the greater good” makes me shiver, I’m afraid to say.  

    I don’t know what you mean by “you are the state.” 



  • Registered Users Posts: 30 syrgian


    Even with contract in place, is it that easy to kick a family that keeps paying in Ireland? (And that not only upkeep the place, but have done a few improvements approved by the landlord). If that's the case, I wasn't aware that we were that much at risk. Might have stayed at my birth country if I had known that, which in retrospective would have been a mistake because we love Ireland.

    Regarding payments, yes, you will save more (as in, larger increase to net worth) with a mortgage, but you also lose some freedom. In 3 years I have paid 75600€ of rent, but I will pay around 65k€ in interest payments in the 3 years after I buy a place that I like as much. So assuming no changes to house prices, I will save around additional 10k every three years. And then also get a lot more stability in exchange of loss in freedom of movement (specially if house prices drop in the short term after I buy). In my situation I don't think it was black-and-white, both options (rent and buy) were reasonable. Buy now that rent is extremely high, even for Dublin salaries, I know I wouldn't get into a new rental. Specially because I have dogs, and get extremely de-prioritized by landlords, despite that I leave the places I rent in a way better state than they were when I entered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    tax once went into someone pocket

    now due to progress, for the greater good yeah

    against what you would describe as self interest

    you are part of the state, ye know a human group working for a commonish goal

    can you explain why the greater good makes you shudder



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    sorry how much interest are you paying? can you break that down

    you are renting for say 2k somewhere that you would pay roughly 1800 in interest payments?

    what I think you are saying is the mortgage repayments would be 1800



  • Registered Users Posts: 30 syrgian


    I pay 2100 in rent. This place would easily be worth ~600k currently. The places I am looking for go around 500k, non green mortgage, and I plan to fix for 3-5 years (so I go back to variable on the way down of the inverted yield curve of Germany government bonds). That's 450k in debt, at 4.8% interest, that's 21600 per year or around 64800 in 3 years. Obviously slightly less because of the decrease in principal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    I'm not fully decided yet one way or the other but interest rate rises, recent job losses, corporation tax 2024, stabilization of incoming refugees and upcoming supply are risk factors for me. We're buying and selling so would like to get the risk off ASAP as we paid more than I would have liked when buying.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,651 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Even for me, this is getting wildly off topic...

    If you believe the state to be a benevolent entity then I think I will not dissuade you. The state squandered massive quantities of resources each and every year, whilst perpetuating the problems that ostensibly such expenditure is meant to resolve. If you believe that voting in a TD every five years makes you a part of the state, then far be it from me to tell you otherwise.

    "Thre greater good" is redolent of Communism, and God help any soul who thinks that that is a good idea.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    yeah the bit less is the big bit, its not just slightly less either, obviously tailed towards the start of the mortage

    also you have very cheap rent for a 600k gaff, this is more the issue

    the vast majority aren't



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    you are the one going a bit wild here

    this is socialism not communism, which is just paired back

    you are the state, you can take part in it or not

    you have benefited from this socialism

    do you pay tax?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,621 ✭✭✭flexcon


    This.


    At the moment myself and the other half are paying a combined €1,100 a month on rent.


    The equivalent mortgage on a 3 bed semi detached in cork is now €1,900 a month based on a decent 110sqm 3 bed in togher @ 360,000. and 4% interest rate.


    We are saving well in excess of 2600 a month atm, the only clock that is ticking is the body and we are into the final hour.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,601 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Central banks covid QE explosion = asset prices rocketing - led to inflation - led to further asset price increase - led to wage inflation

    Looser lending conditions plus ftb grant plus shared ownership required to keep the bubble going



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    There is nowhere in the country where open market rental yields are lower than mortgage rates.

    Anyone quoting rents lower than the equivalent interest payment on a mortgage for that property has wayyy below market rent.

    For example, an person above was quoting an annual rent of 4% of the property value. This is brilliant, but absurd. Getting a rental at half the going rate is not a viable avenue for most. And for many who have it, it could be short lived when the landlord sells up and they’re faced with a doubling of their rent overnight (if they can even find a place).



  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭danfrancisco83


    Whatever happened to the couple in Blackrock that were renting for £26 a week or whatever?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭newmember2


    Yes.

    also you have very cheap rent for a 600k gaff, this is more the issue

    I've just shown you a 600k house, you may need to recalibrate what you thought you knew.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,601 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Anyone quoting rents lower than the equivalent interest payment on a mortgage for that property has wayyy below market rent.

    You'd be surprised how prevelant it is. The rent controls caught loads of landlords, hence the rush for the exits when the eviction ban was lifted



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Oh I know, but it’s a fortunate (and likely temporary) situation a fair number of people find themselves in.

    It’s not a viable strategy for people on the other side of it and struggling with exorbitant rent. Trying to generalise it by comparing subsidised rent with a full market value mortgage as a reason to continue renting is unhelpful.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,651 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I can assure you, I spend too much time thinking about these things to go wild.

    Look, drop me a PM and we'll take it from there if you want to discuss it. I would like to, but this really isn't the place for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,651 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Honestly, I don't know what will happen either; no one really does, but we can make educated guesses.

    Whilst there have been job losses in the tech sector, most of it seems to be trimming of the over hiring that went on over the last few years. There are still plenty of high paying jobs out there, and there are still a lot of people who have them.

    Rates may not rise much higher if indeed inflation (or at least the metrics used to measure it) stablise. I heard recently that mortgage approvals are at an all time high.

    I too paid more than I wanted to for what I got, but I think anyone who's bought in the last few years can largely say the same.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    again. not many 3 beds going for that rent, you are still losing money



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