Summer 2023 - General Discussion

I remember when the GFS first started showing the wild unsettled outliers they were not being taken seriously at all while the ECM was promising us a 1976/1995 style July. The GFS got things really wrong since the last update so not suprised that people were disregarding the unsettled gfs stuff which first appeared in the FI charts around the end of week 2 of June. Has the GFS fixed something I wonder because it absolutely nailed this pattern change from along way out.

I have always preferred the GFS but in recent months it was becoming more and more unreliable, while I hate the pattern change it's good to see the GFS nailing it again but will it spot the next pattern change correctly remains to be seen.

As recently as a week ago the ECM extended had finally picked up on the unsettled first half to July but it was still trying to bring back high pressure and warmth for the second half of July. The latest ECM extended has thrown all this in the bin and has flipped to a cool and unsettled outlook right into the middle of August with low pressure dominating and high pressure restricted to the south and south-east of Europe. I think the ECM extended updates again later today or early tomorrow and will probably sing a different tune again for August so it's very difficult right now to take the ECM extended seriously past week 1, similar to the CFS extended.

I'm afraid not, this week looks like it will be the main event of this unsettled period with rain/showers every day. Next week will also be unsettled but perhaps a bit less in the way of rainfall. We really are looking at final week of July for a possible genuine improvement. We got very lucky with the lovely weather on Friday and Saturday, we won't be seeing days like those for quite a while.