Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Quite the CV

A bit, actually, yeah. I'd have thought they'd be fairly sick of Ukraine by now and would prefer to face down barely-armed African rebels rather than a HIMARS strike. Doesn't seem as though Ukraine has been a happy time for them, characterised by bloody attritional fighting and bickering with the regular Russian military.

I guess that that if Wagner reenters Ukraine, then it's full proof that Russia needs Wagner at least as much as Wagner needs Russia.

The story that Putin has tasked Prigozhin with finding and killing Zelensky certainly suggests that Wagner's mission in Russia would change from an assault force to something more covert.

Good analysis of the offensive to date.

https://youtu.be/8fR9HJnYXoc

Probably better armed and equipped now he's shown he could take bakhmut and a few weeks later gets to the gates of Moscow with little or no losses,as it stands Wagner are Russias vanguard forces going forward

I have not listened to this guy before, he's a Danish military analyst, its very refreshing to get a balanced opinion on the status of the Ukrainian offensive.

Is this the fella that was prominent of Joe Duffy's Liveline programme last year? Came across as a fantasist, but thought he came back then having explained he was battle scarred. Maybe he went back.

Pavel previously called out the lack of ammunition for ukraine as a serious issue ,he's mentioned it again here and this isn't some propaganda repeated off twitter,

There's a real concern in what he's saying if major gains aren't made in the next while and they go into winter in pretty much the same positions and on the same lines ,this Will give Russia the chance to enforce their lines and Fortifiy more locations, they also have to take into stock NATO supplies aren't infinite and according to various reports Nato countries will need be restocked or put their own defense capabilities at risk,

Just looking at the list of vehicles being sent to Ukraine more Bradleys and Strykers going by the figures Ukraine already seem to have lost a sizable number of their new Bradleys which was supposed to be a game changer for them,

The next few months may very well prove to be crucial

Yes, he gives a very reasoned view on the present state of play. He also gives different view on the "Prigozhin Affair " He does not believe for an instant that it was a joint Putin / Prigozhin endeavor to flush out the anti-Putin elements. it was a full fledged mutiny, that for some as yet unknown reason failed, but is still very much a live and on going event. you can see it here:- Is there another Wagner insurrection coming? - YouTube

Lack of air support is probably the main reason for the slow progress of the Ukrainian advancing. So one reason why Biden gave the cluster munitions is that it will help make up for the shortage in aircraft, by supplying the cluster bombs, where a singe bomb can deliver 2'000 bomblets, and all by air. Imagine a few of these cluster bombs releasing their thousands of munitions over trench systems? Will cause absolute mayhem on the Russian lines.

A bit of criticism from the Brits?

Slight word of caution', UK defence secretary warns Ukraine allies aren't 'Amazon' delivery serviceAnalysis by Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor

The UK and its NATO allies are not an "Amazon" delivery service for weapons to Ukraine and Kyiv might be wise to let its supporters "see gratitude", Britain's defence secretary has said.

In a blunt intervention, Ben Wallace said his "counsel" to the Ukrainians was to keep in mind that they need to persuade some doubting politicians in Washington and other capitals that the tens of billions of pounds they are spending in military aid to their country for its war with Russia is worthwhile.

He was responding to a question from Sky News about whether the failure of allies to give President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a timeframe for membership to NATO at a major summit this week would undermine the morale of his troops on the frontline.

The defence secretary said he did not believe this was the case, before describing how Ukraine is always asking for more even after receiving the latest batch of arms.

"There is a slight word of caution here, which is that whether we like it or not people want to see gratitude," Mr Wallace said in a briefing to journalists on the sidelines of the two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius.

"My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes look you're persuading countries to give up their own stocks [of weapons] and yes the war is a noble war and yes we see it as you doing a war for - not just yourself - but our freedoms.

"But sometimes you've got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America, you've got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that you know, that it's worth it and it's worthwhile and that they're getting something for it.

"And whether you like that or not, that is just the reality of it."

Mr Wallace said you sometimes hear "grumbles" from American lawmakers – not the administration – about support to Ukraine that "we've given $83 billion worth or whatever [and] you know, we're not Amazon."

The defence secretary said he too had told the Ukrainians in June last year that the UK was not the online delivery service when it came to supplying arms.

"I said to the Ukrainians last year, when I drove 11 hours to [Kyiv to] be given a list – I said, I am not Amazon."

He also said he warned them that they needed to provide better training for their troops to stop them suffering such a high weekly rate of casualties as that would risk them losing political support. He instead offered to provide a training programme in the UK.

Meanwhile in the black sea the Moskva cruiser which the Ukrainans sunk last year has been replaced with a brand new vessel barely 12 months later....

Hopefully this one joins it's sister on the floor of the Black sea .....

The reality of this may yet persuade bordering nations to get more actively involved and provide air cover/ implement a no fly zone etc. As part of a calculation of what is in their best long term interests and at what cost.

...

This what was suggested before the invasion an international coalition/Nato to impose a no fly zone over ukraine to prevent Russian aircraft and helicopters having access to ukraine,but this was denied, Nato Said no this will drag us into the conflict directly,

We need a separate coalition led by the eu or EU states who can send aircraft carrier to patrol the skies over ukraine,but even at that they won't likey engage Russian forces on the ground.

There is elections due in October by all accounts ,

Didn't get to finish my last post,

They are due in October and presidential later,they can suspend the elections under Marshal laws ,they may need to do something to keep their international backers happy, especially while demanding accession to both Nato and the EU ,if this turns into 5 year war as suggested by some they can't suspend democracy indefinitely,but demanding they be let into the eu and Nato skipping all of the normal processes involved in both

Ben Wallace is some kind of a ratbag

"UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says "people want to see gratitude" from Ukraine, in relation to Western aid"

If Prigozhin were to run it again, would it succeed? For sure, it has definitely left a deeply weakened Putin, But on the other hand, an awfully deeply suspicious and paranoid Putin, who will see mutiny every where he looks. if it does happen again, it will be a fully 100% committed mutiny with no hostages taken. And Putin will be the prime target.

I think the UBS rescue merger with Credit Suisse was quite telling in that it did happen relatively quickly under the guise of the greater good. Many would hold the view that it was done, with the support of the state, to keep the books in-house and the world's eyes away from just how much it was awash with Russian cash & assets.