Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

grumpyperson · 13-07-2023 11:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848566#Comment_120848566

The Vikings seemed mad for the rape and pillage. The USA that are held as paragons of virtue seem to engage in all sorts of torture, massacres of civilians, etc. so if they're doing maybe others are too? I'd imagine defenders would be less likely to rape their neighbours but have no stats to back it up.

Maybe scratch that speculation from the record.

Anyway, I've little to go on except MSM, I don't have a network of informants like you presumably do....

Christy42 · 13-07-2023 11:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848593#Comment_120848593

If Goliath takes well over a year to beat David in open pitched battles then it probably isn't actually Goliath. There are reasons that they thought they could win so quickly and that is because that is were the Russian army should have been. Fair play to the bravery of Ukrainians but arms took a while to start going into the country, there is no way they should have held against Russia if Russia was anywhere close to a military Goliath. Something was horrifically wrong there. Typically Goliath doesn't drag out fights against David.

Historically if an attacker stalls out this long they are rarely successful in the end because generally they give it their best shot early on to get it done with. Again see the likes of the Nazis in Russia (as opposed to the Nazis in France in which made good their early advantage). You can see Iraq where the US ensured they had the equipment and training to keep moving across the country quickly while they stalled in Vietnam and this led to horrible results.

And yes, if most of the world's money is outright refusing to buy from Russia than the remainder will play hardball for a better price. This is capitilism, no matter what way you spin it demand for Russian fuel went down.

Finally it depends on the quality of the equipment. I will take a hodgepodge of modern equipment vs a consistent integrated military using equipment that is out of date.

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848651#Comment_120848651

Not so much a network of informants as:

becoming awake to the lie that is The News (over any number of issues over however many years - I've long since lost faith)
listening closely to the basics of the arguments and seeing how that tallies with what I know of reality. For example: my career involves engineering maintenance in a pressurized, hi-intensity field. I know intimately what's involved in that realm. So when somebody (such as Col McGregor) with military experience comes on to talk about the impossibility of Ukraine fielding Western tanks (not from an armour/firepower perspective but from a humdrum maintenance perspective) I give them credence. And then, when they talk of something of which I know less, I'm inclined to believe them
I've also following the history of WW2 in depth so know something of basic realities of size and power. Russia beat Germany on the basis of sheer mass. The Germans' had lovely tech and led the way in so many ways. They had a great officer class derived from the militaristic Prussians. They were great soldiers. But they simply couldn't cope with the brute size of Russia. Ukraine simply can't beat Russia from a size perspective. No way. No how
There is a lot you can do without MSM. There really isn't an excuse to watch MSM anymore. You might err, you might stray. But you ought dump MSM.

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848651#Comment_120848651

Exercise for you:

You've seen that viral photo of Zelensky at the Vilnius summit - the one where he's standing all alone and his missus is being hand held by some lady?

Think:

that was an official photographer that took that photo. Whatever photographs he/she/it/they/them took went up for consideration for publishing
that photo was published by NATO officialdom.

Why do you think NATO officialdom opted to publish/viralize a photograph that made Zelensky look alone and rejected?

Gatling · 14-07-2023 12:12am

We've a live one ,

@Auntie Lost after a fashion. Like the US lost in Iraq or Vietnam or indeed in Afghanistan

I don't remember America losing in Iraq 1st ,2nd or third time,

They didn't lose in Afghanistan they beat the Taliban and brought peace for a whole generation of Afghans ,the biggest issue despite the biggest military rebuilding excercise seen since 1945 + the Afghan government was too corrupt and led by tribal lines ,and the Afghans didn't want to fight despite out numbering the Taliban forces and massively outgunning them the Afghans wouldn't put up a real fight which would have been the end of the Taliban,but that all came after Trump negotiated a full withdrawal of American forces and screwed allies over,

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848567#Comment_120848567

A somewhat related exercise for you (a media awareness exercise you might call it):

You've seen that viral photo of Zelensky at the Vilnius summit - the one where he's standing all alone and his missus is being hand-held by some PM's wife?

Think:

that was an official photographer that took that photo. Whatever photographs he/she/it/they/them took, went up for consideration for publishing by officialdom
that photo was then published by NATO officialdom.

Why do you think NATO officialdom opted to publish/viralize a photograph that made Zelensky look alone and rejected?

To my mind it's not hard: Ukr is a busted flush and folk are being prepped for the dumping Zelensky: 9mm in the back of the head / flight to Florida / whatever.

How does the deliberate viralizing of a weak Zelensky photograph fit in YOUR narrative. Pray tell.

jmreire · 14-07-2023 12:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847928#Comment_120847928

Quote " Me? Having followed war and the mechanisms of same, I simply can't but see Small Ukraine being squashed by Big Russia." Unquote.

Seems like your mighty Russian's are unable to squash small Ukraine, though, doesn't it? That 3 day plan is still unfolding 18 Mth's later, during which time they lost most of the territory they had taken in the beginning. And they are losing more of it day by day.

Gatling · 14-07-2023 12:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848651#Comment_120848651

So were the Russians mad for rape post WW2 hundreds of thousands of women, Children and elderly were raped on mass by Russian forces as their reward for liberating Berlin alone, and we see it again in Ukraine from children to elderly.

Seems like the Russians have a thing for rape alright

Dohnjoe · 14-07-2023 12:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120847928#Comment_120847928

The Russian military has lost an estimated half it's useable main battle tanks. It's increasingly reliant on munitions from other countries, e.g. Iran. It is increasingly reliant on conscripts and prisoners. Soldiers are being refused leave, some have been fighting for months. The Wagner mercenary army made it to within 200km of Moscow, from Ukraine, in less than 24 hours, virtually unopposed (except for shooting down a dozen aircraft on the way). Even the leadership has acknowledged supply and logistical issues. They have been resorting to using equipment from the 60's, they are using ISIS tactics (vehicle borne IEDs), they couldn't destroy the much smaller Ukrainian airforce, their Naval flagship got taken out by a country with no navy, the list goes on and on.

There's still significant quantity remaining, but the quality has been declining since the start and large cracks have been growing for awhile. The "big bad" Russian war machine has been well and truly exploded as a myth.

Conversely global analysts had the Ukrainian military collapsing within days of the invasion. They not only survived, but have managed to drive the Russian military back in multiple areas, in some cases recovering thousands of square km of territory. They took more territory in 2 weeks around Bahkmut than the Russians took in 6 months. They have stopped the Russians destroying their energy infrastructure, they are even exporting electricity now. They are having high success rates in shooting down Russian cruise missiles and Khinzals, as well as the Iranian suicide drones the Russians are sending in. Since the beginning of the conflict have managed to destroy (or capture) Russian armor at a rate of around 4 to 1.

Not everything is rosy of course for Ukraine, they have their own issues, their own logistical headaches, their hands tied behind their backs (they are not allowed bomb logistics hubs within Russia, they aren't allowed go into Russia to go around defences, they aren't allowed to directly attack large Russian bases within Russia to divert forces), and now they have to grind through endless minefields and dug-in WW1 style Russian defences.

However pound for pound, with their modern tactics, the modern equipment being received from allies, with their higher morale troops, command structure - the Ukrainian military have demonstrated that they are better than the Russian military.

The Russian military grip onto one thing, quantity. However even that is diminishing, it's even believed that Ukraine now has more main battle tanks than Russia.

And support? Ukraine has the support of many countries with deep pockets. The Russian military has the support of it's state, which has a GDP the equivalent of Italy's.

I am sure this conflict will go on a long time, possibly even years, but the myth of the Russian military is well and truly exposed.

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848707#Comment_120848707

Well, I suppose getting your soldiers blown up by IED's to the point of being pressed out of the country ain't losing.

Or leaving with Afghanis falling from aeroplanes with the Taliban (aka AK47's and RPGs) taking over the billions of $$ of weapons you've left behind. Reminscent of helipcopes thrun off US ships after the defeat of Vietnam.

Amerika projects it's power around the world but has a piss poor record in the victory stakes. I mean, if you can't defeat little brown men wavingR RPG's then where the hell do you go from there?

You show me one US victory photograph on a par with Iwo Jima or the Reichstag and I'll eat my hat.

"Mission Accomplished" doesn't count - that's a film franchise :)

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848713#Comment_120848713

Good grief man .. you're not still dining out on the Three Day War meme!!

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848722#Comment_120848722

Leaving aside the essay in creative writing (for which 8/10) how to we discern fact from fiction.

I mean, if I wanted to I could link any number of The Guardian articles as to the implosion of the Russian economy, Easy Peezy

But what part of what I cite (or what you cite) is actually true?

"Russian military has lost an estimated half its usable main battle tank / relies on conscripts and prisoners"

..says who .. is the critical question.

As I have said, in a world of false claims I tend to look to what makes sense. Such as massive country vs tiny country. Or short logistical lines (Russia) vs. very long logistical lines (Ukraine). Or integrated military infrastructure vs mish mash military infrastructure.

These are factual statements that can't be dismissed with a "yes but Russian Generals fall over drunk on vodka" nonsense.

Point: if you strip away the wishful thinking / subjective BBC reporting...what are you left with?

Auntie · 14-07-2023 12:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848667#Comment_120848667

You are assuming (without argument) that Goliath has even begun. The Yanks, before stepping foot on Iraqi soil, spent 44 days and nights pounding every element of Iraqi infrastructure: power generation, comms, water pumping, sewage, roads, bridges, rail, depots .. the works. Paralyse everything irrespective of the cost to the Iraqi citizenry,

Russia didn't do that. They could have. But they didn't.

I'm not getting into a post-links argument with you but again would point to logic. Prices of fuel are at commodity levels: you can't suppress the price of Russian fuel in a global economy. Once the price is set in the world for a litre of oil, the purveyor of a litre of oil will obtain his price (aside from some side costs of doing business).

You seem to forget Biden going cap in hand to Saudi Arabia looking for a reduction in output and Saudi telling Biden where to shove it.

Demand is the game. The price follows. Don't kid yourself that "the world" gives a feck

Dohnjoe · 14-07-2023 12:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848651#Comment_120848651

Countries are not people.

Scholz in Germany is not a hypocrite for criticising the invasion of Ukraine because a certain German predecessor massacred millions. Rishi Sunak is not a hypocrite because another leader from another party invaded Iraq twenty years ago.

Putin's Russia is invading Ukraine. As the leader of Russia, that decision is 100% his responsibility. Cherry-picking something else bad from history doesn't validate that decision nor does it validate the invasion.

There is overwhelming evidence that the Russian military are committing systematic murders, atrocities, and rapes in Ukraine. These are not isolated incidents.

The invasion itself is 100% a war of choice. Russia was under zero threat of attack by Ukraine. No country on earth has any plans to invade nuclear armed Russia.

Since it's a war of choice for Putin, and it was Putin's decision, then every death as a result of the invasion, on the Russian side and the Ukrainian side, is the responsibility of Putin

In your posts here, you repeatedly attempt to shirk and shift and weasel blame on Ukraine.

Anyway, I've little to go on except MSM

You know who else uses the phrase "MSM"? Alex Jones the conspiracy theorist. An individual who replaces facts with narratives. Narratives all driven by an agenda.

jmreire · 14-07-2023 12:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848753#Comment_120848753

And surely you are not still dining out on the Russian Army being the 2nd most powerful army in the world after the US? That particular meme seems not to have aged very well, under scrutiny, did it? None the less, Putin's 3 day event meme or not actually happened, as is being proved every day. Oh, and another point you mentioned concerning Logistics, specifically Russian Logistics. Their Logistics depend on Rail, its all designed around an admittedly extensive rail network, given the vast distances. But just like the outdoor toilet arrangement most Russians in the Republics use , same goes for their logistics...they haven't developed a palletized / forklift system yet. All bags and baggage are still hand loaded / unloaded. Then you have one of the biggest drawbacks in the Russian Logistics system ( applies to every sphere of Life in Russia. ) namely Corruption. What's loaded into the wagons at one end, rarely arrives in the destination complete. No, I don't think that your high opinion of Russian logistics is deserved. Have you ever seen it in action, on the ground, in Russia, by any chance?

Auntie · 14-07-2023 1:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848784#Comment_120848784

You seem to be saying that in 20 years nobody can criticize Putin because at that point he'll be like the leaders past of the US and Britain and Germany

Which seems to be saying there is little, bar time not having elapsed yet, to criticize him over.

Odd thinking!!

Question: from which source are you obtaining your overwhelming evidence? More importantly: how do you decide this source is trustworthy?

Question: if a gang member finds himself confronted by 3 members of an opposing gang and, taking the opportunity that presents itself, opts to strike first at them .. well the question is obvious: is he right to avail of that opportunity.

Or do you see NATO as a benevolent organisation?

Dohnjoe · 14-07-2023 1:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848769#Comment_120848769

There is direct evidence, e.g. OSINT with visually confirmed numbers of losses of e.g. Russian main battle tanks.

There is indirect evidence, e.g. Russians using older and older variants of e.g. main battle tanks.

There are multiple (indirectly) sources of Russian information itself, e.g. Russian military bloggers (heavily supportive of the Russian military) pointing out key deficits and issues with Russian military logistics.

There is national intelligence, e.g. Swedish, UK, French, etc intelligence services providing their own overviews, many of which have turned out to be correct (they are not infallible, and they are Ukraine-centric, but a high portion have turned out to be relatively accurate)

There are POWs, captured Russians, individually may not be reliable, and again not infallible, but overall providing corroborated information.

There are satellite images of the front-line, which often correlates with an aggregate of above info, e.g. reports from Russian telegram that Ru units are performing badly in Bahkmut, followed by geo-located confirmations that indeed they have lost a particular area. That e.g. X number of Russian military units were destroyed in that area, followed up by visual confirmation of that, POW confirmation, intelligence confirmation.

Collating all these sources helps build relative indicators of how the war is progressing for both sides.

There are of course those on social media who are "I don't know what's happening therefore we can't know what's happening, the news has no clue, Russia army big, Ukraine army small".

Dohnjoe · 14-07-2023 1:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848809#Comment_120848809

Question: from which source are you obtaining your overwhelming evidence? More importantly: how do you decide this source is trustworthy?

As per the post above, a wide array of sources.

Question: if a gang member finds himself confronted by 3 members of an opposing gang and, taking the opportunity that presents itself, opts to strike first at them .. well the question is obvious: is he right to avail of that opportunity.

Putin made unilateral decision to invade and occupy a neighbouring country. Ukraine was no threat to nuclear armed Russia. Putin can stop, turn-around and end the war in an instant at any time of his choosing.

Or do you see NATO as a benevolent organisation?

Nope. NATO is a malevolent threat to Putin's (currently active) plans to invade European countries or member states.

pixelburp · 14-07-2023 7:28am

The irony is NATO's continued existence might have been up for debate has Russia merely turned into a modern, dynamic democracy, approachable instead of a sulking belligerent neighbour: yet instead Putin invaded Ukraine proper this time, after a history of hassling or interfering with various "republics" around its old USSR borders; while he has openly spoke of the mistake of allowing Ukraine to break away at all - and within all that and the first months of hostilities, two countries directly wary of Russia joined the organisation. Moldova and other small states now sizing up their own options.

Finland like Ukraine and other countries who have had priors with Russia didn't take long to throw their lot in with NATO to shield itself from a country who dispensed with the pretence of normalcy. Finnish history knows the value of paranoia WRT russia. A country that banked on its Nord Stream pipeline to keep the West at bay while it blitzed Kyiv. Neither happened and so now Putin's sunk cost scenario requires old 1950s tanks to be dusted off, their industry crippled by sanctions that prevent it from manufacturing enough artillery and ammunition - a key tenet of Russian military doctrine. An army that packed dress uniforms for the parade finds itself dug in with ww1 trenches and mines across its meagre gains - they have scarcely "won" anything except to show the poverty of their military might.

As @Dohnjoe nearly summarised, this is a war with a wealth of non traditional sources of information, from social media on the ground to satellites in the air; the truth of this battlefield is fairly easy to ascertain. We're not reliant on pathé reels and some reporters here and there. Anyone who buttresses against that with conspiracy and presumption that NATO tentacles are behind it all can't be reasoned with, given we have plenty of reasonable evidence in the first instance. When the world and its mother has a camera phone, it becomes very easy to keep track of the intricacies of this war. And those details tell a clear picture that Russia is keeping parity, not dominating the war. Invaders don't build trenches and minefields, not those advancing. Regressing to ww1 tactics suggests panic, an attempt to delay the inevitable

Podge_irl · 14-07-2023 9:20am

I don't know what exactly you are basing your short logistical lines vs long logistical lines theory on, but its not very well founded. Presumably you are suggesting that because much of Ukraine's arms come from its allies that they have long logistical lines, but they are transiting into the country under absolutely no duress whatsoever (despite Russia's comical threats to target them). Russia's logistics are under constant attack and need to travel through occupied enemy land. I suggest you also take a look at the difference between interior and exterior lines when it comes to logistics.

Needless to also say, "bigger country beats smaller country" is not a universal law of truth throughout history. Russia have done very little but lose ground over the last year - at a regrettably slow pace at times, but nonetheless the trajectory is clear. It rather undermines the very core of your thesis.

Nody · 14-07-2023 9:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848809#Comment_120848809

How about from the Russian defence minister himself?

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Saturday called for more tanks to be manufactured "to meet the needs of Russian forces" in Ukraine after Kyiv launched a counteroffensive with Western arms.

Shoigu, who visited a military factory in western Siberia, stressed the need "to maintain the increased production of tanks" and better security features in armored vehicles, the Defense Ministry said.

Shoigu said this was necessary "to satisfy the needs of Russian forces carrying out the special military operation" launched by Moscow in Ukraine in February last year, it added.

Sam Russell · 14-07-2023 9:37am

Of course Russia has history in BIG country going to war with SMALL country in 1905. The Russo/Japanese war of 1905 resulted in the humbling of the Russian forces in a succession of disastrous naval battles.

The consequences of that war resulted in the fall of the Russian Empire, and the rise of the USSR.

Putin should know this as he is a fan of Russian/USSR history.

odyssey06 · 14-07-2023 10:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848593#Comment_120848593

You won't find any "Truth" in your posts that's for sure.

You have already been caught out in a lie. Note this is not an accusation I throw about lightly, but in this case the documented proof is on the thread.

In post #9346 you wrote:

Could you cite any mainstream Western propaganda source (BBC, The Gourdian, The Irish Times (haha) who say, at this juncture, that the Russian economy has been crippled?)

So you asked for citation from the Guardian and one was provided.

Now you lie and deny by saying "I did not cite the Guardian as an acceptable source".

When you did do this.

Your lies have been proven and established now on the thread.

Christy42 · 14-07-2023 10:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848781#Comment_120848781

Goliath hasn't begun because Russia can't unleash it. How many Russian lives are they going to sacrifice for the sake of not using their military? It defies any sort of logic to say that Russia could but just decided not to so they get a few more of their soldiers killed? As you say the US launch airborne attacks well before they set foot in Iraq. The only reason for Russia not to copy this strategy is because they can't. It has been over a year, Golaith isn't right behind the curtain.

Russia has been massively embarresed on a world stage, the world's opinion of their military has been massively downgraded. They are seen as a joke. But yeah they are just waiting to unless something.

And don't say it is for the Ukrainian citizens benefit when the Russian soldiers have raped their way across what little chunks of the Ukraine they could capture. Plus they have tried to bomb the F out of cities.

Podge_irl · 14-07-2023 10:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120848781#Comment_120848781

Prices of fuel are at commodity levels: you can't suppress the price of Russian fuel in a global economy. Once the price is set in the world for a litre of oil, the purveyor of a litre of oil will obtain his price

The eagle eyed among us may notice that that is, in fact, not true.

ilkhanid · 14-07-2023 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120845980#Comment_120845980

Poor 'oul Russia , everybody 'agin her. What a stream of self-pitying rubbish. Russia was not invaded by ''Europe'', it was invaded by particular European countries and each time it had allies in Europe. Britain and other European states fought Napoleon alongside Russia. France and Britain fought on the side of Russia in 1914. Western Europe was fighting the Nazis while the Soviets were hobnobbing with Hitler. Considering the gratitude Russia has traditionally extended to her allies, they might be forgiven for wondering if they should have left Russia to it's own devices and let it take its own chances.

Podge_irl · 14-07-2023 12:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120849946#Comment_120849946

Also both Napoleon and the Nazis invaded all of Europe. What makes Russia so special?

Sam Russell · 14-07-2023 12:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120850093#Comment_120850093

Neither Napoleon nor the Nazis succeeded.

However, the Wagner group got closer to Moscow than either of them within 24 hours - and voluntarily turned back without testing the defences of Moscow.

Podge_irl · 14-07-2023 12:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120850273#Comment_120850273

Napoleon captured Moscow...

They both failed with Russia experiencing a lot of turmoil and suffering (though some of it self-inflicted) but its just not unique and I don't know why its brought up as some kind of defence of Russia's apprehension of the West. Russia has faced invasion far less than European states.

Sam Russell · 14-07-2023 12:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120850285#Comment_120850285

Well, yes, he did enter an abandoned Moscow, but St Petersburg was the capital at the time. He only stayed 5 weeks anyway, and lost most of his army, horses and artillery. So nothing to claim anything but defeat.

Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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