Summer 2023 - General Discussion
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12/25 synoptic stations are now wetter than average for July 2023 after yesterday's washout with as much as 154% of average at Mount Dillon.
I've added in July 2020 and 2009 for comparison as they are the most recent wettest Julys though others were locally wetter in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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I think most stations will well beat 100mm of rainfall by the time we finish July. This weekend is dominated by a slow moving dartboard low which is giving very big rainfall totals over a 48 hour to 72 hour period with very little break from the rain. The models are playing around with the idea of another dart board low event next weekend with another weekend washout a possibility. In between this weekends washout and next weekends possible washout there will still be plenty of rain or showers about. Summer has derailed and is nothing but a trainwreck at this stage.
Currently there is no end in sight to this unsettled washing machine of slowly rotating low pressures.
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As for the St. Swithin's Day folklore, I do not have any national Irish daily rainfall data and the UK is the best I have to offer. One day does not define the rest of the summer. There's so much nuance to consider. Where did the rain fall? What was the quantity of rain in that location? What about those where no rain fell on the day but it fell for others? St. Swithin's Day in the UK in recent years has been dry but August has been 50/50 with two contrasting pairs - the wet 2019/2020 and dry 2021/2022. 1976 is one of the wettest St. Swithin's Days here and was followed by the second driest August.
Saying this, this year's one is unsettled and it does look wet for the foreseeable but as far as I'm concerned, that is pure coincidence.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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I’m a firm believer in the St Swithin weather lore. No, not the 40 days of rain nonsense as even the worst summers have reasonably good days with sunshine between fronts.
By mid July summers in Ireland and the UK are usually locked into a pattern that persists for the remainder of the season which is what the legend is based on.
July 1976 was not a poor month, there was a bit of an unsettled spell mid month but the start and finish were warm, dry and sunny.
The mid month pattern a year ago, old St Swithin predicted a fine August!
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The end of July 1976 was not warm, in fact it was quite cool with mostly 16-17C days and there was ground frost on the final day. There was even air frost in the UK into early August. The airflow was northwesterly with a mid-Atlantic ridge. After the June/July 1976 heatwave ended, the summer didn't pick up again until the second week of August and this is lost in people's memories.
1995 was unsettled on St. Swithin's Day (which you have posted before back in 2018 as a means of it doesn't mean August will be a write off).
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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