Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There were 90,000 households on the social housing list in 2013. The crisis was already brewing.

In 2013 there were TDs in the dail literally asking about plans to build more social housing to address this: "Deputy Bernard J. Durkan asked the Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government the extent to which in the course of a review of the full extent of the local authority housing need arising from failure of his predecessors to make adequate provision in this regard, any plans have been put in place, to reintroduce a capital housing programme with particular reference to addressing the housing crisis"

Or: "Deputy Michael P. Kitt asked the Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government the proposals in place for increased provision of social housing; and if he will make a statement on the matter"

etc

Those two TDs above are from FG & FF, nevermind the left wing parties who have always consistently called for it.

The National Economic and Social Council in 2014 were already releasing papers calling out the dangers of leasing social housing instead of building it: http://files.nesc.ie/nesc_secretariat_papers/No_10_Review_of_Irish_Social_and_Affordable_Housing_Provision.pdf

The idea that nobody saw this coming is completely untrue. There were plenty of people calling for the state to build social housing instead of lease it throughout the last decade - it was a deliberate, conscious, decision to ignore them.

I wonder what planet people are on when they say it would have been cheaper and better if the government had built the necessary housing rather than providing state support payments to help house the recipients. What is it that makes them think that that volume of housing could be built on time and at projected costs? Nothing in our history has supported such thinking.

HAP is the cheapest way of housing social tenants for the government and LA's. It limits there liability and forces LA's to carry out management of tenants for them.

HAP or a firm of it was in place since the early noughties. There was no way the IMF was allowing the government to spend money on house building. It's incorrect to say the giveaways doing nothing. There is as inner city regeneration going on during this period but funds were limited.

Labour is the limiting factor in house provision nowadays. During the mid 1900's we had a cheap sour e of skilled building labour( 50-70%) immigrated and build the US and UK infrastructure.

We cannot access the same cheap labour now. Factories in Limerick, Galway and Cork are full of former construction workers. They can earn 50k+ every year and not get wet or have to travel longer distances to work

I'm not saying HAP is not cheap for the gov, I'm saying it's not fair on private renters.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-prices-keep-rising-despite-hikes-in-mortgage-costs/a1234790867.html 😂

Irish economists showing there usefulness yet again.

Dan must have missed the generational divide thesis

But that statistic probably hasn't changed at all since 2019(and home ownership rates probably have deteriorated further since) so comparing to the onset of the famine when the situation radically from changed is apples and oranges.

If im mortgage free there is no risk of negative equity should the value of my home fall.

If I wish to trade up or down, a fall in prices at all brackets will mean little change to the mover upper, a bit of a loss for a downsizer as lower end of market tends not to fall as much in absolute terms. However we see ireland has very low levels of homeowners downsizing in general so this is largely moot. Irish homeowners tend to stay in their home until death or nursing home. The value of their asset is never realised until after they're gone and their children inherit it.

Do you know the proportion of people who are finance free home owners, who also have private pensions? Significant falling house prices are also associated with recessions, what is the correlation between recessions, unemployment, falling wages and living standards?

Again, a sizeable proportion of the electorate will not welcome a decline in the value of their homes, especially 30-somethings who have recently gotten on the property ladder.

No, but know far more people that just have the state pension

There's a high correlation between unsustainable prices and rents and the deepness of recessions. Often better to take a slap in the head now rather than a hammer in a few years time