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World's hottest day since records began

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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,211 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    I don't think they do?

    Here's a chart - from 2016, for some reason; that site is usually pretty up-to-date as those who followed it during covid will know, but the changes since then won't be dramatic (sadly) - which shows the Gulf states generally leading the way on a per capita basis. Not surprising when you think of the amount of high-end cars, little enough public transport, lots of air con, etc


    The US is pretty high (15th) but of course it has a huge population too. Plus it gets tricky when you try work out how much of, say, China's emissions are for making crap for the US market.

    Ireland's emissions are around half the US on that chart, but still 60% higher than the five-tonne-per-capita (I think it was) limit suggested by Mark Berners-Lee in his book How Bad Are Bananas on carbon emissions. And the same issue around us exporting our emissions to China.

    World Bank has similar enough data for 2020 actually - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?most_recent_value_desc=true

    I don't know how exactly emissions are apportioned - think us flying in Brazilians to cut our meat up for example. Who gets that share? Not sure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    The weather in Germany is alternating between above to below average for this week depending on location. That’s really newsworthy stuff alright. Did that sound smart in your head?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,351 ✭✭✭✭mickdw


    Can anyone explain in simple terms how the scientist recover temperature data from ice cores. I'm particularly interested in how they can be sure that they are not in fact missing all the temperature peaks down through the ages by simply losing data due to massive ice melts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭Jizique


    Jeez, Boris Johnson was the first to talk about being the Saudi Arabia of wind, and I know the banker from Barclays who pitched the idea to him as he told me he had an audience a couple of weeks after I met him and heard the pitch; then ireland, with no history in engineering or offshore anything pucks up on the phrase and Leo (who loves his soundbites) runs with it and clearly people are falling for it, people who wouldn't believe Leo if he said it was raining without first looking out the window.

    Leo will be long gone from politics before ireland produces anything meaningful from offshore, before any meaningful hydrogen is produced. This is largely grift, the beneficiaries are different to the traditional ones - the complete and utterly failure of renewables to deliver any benefit from "zero marginal cost generation" is proof of that



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    No- that’s private companies can make billions upon billions exporting wind generated electricity to the likes of Germany.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭Jizique




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie




  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Those private companies will have to pay a license fee to be allowed to build and operate those wind turbines. Like 10% of any revenue 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    So can these private companies right off the price of building the generators against future profit?

    Will they have to pay this 10% on top of whatever tax they have to pay on profit? Corporation tax?

    Will this 10% be on total revenue or their net profit after the corporation tax has been paid?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,324 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Computer simulations, up there with a 380hr GFS chart I'm sure.

    1000, 100,000 years, why not aim for the cheap seats and claim its hotter than 1,000,000 years ago. Nobody can prove it either way.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,890 ✭✭✭Jizique


    Doesn't matter, we will not be exporting "billions and billions" of electricity to Germany - anyway, won't electricity be basically free?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,989 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld



    Point 6 below, from ChatGPT...



    Of course! Recovering temperature data from ice cores is a fascinating process. Here's a simple explanation of how scientists do it:


    1. **Collecting Ice Cores**: Scientists drill deep into glaciers or ice sheets to retrieve long cylinders of ice, called ice cores. Each layer of ice represents a different time period, with the oldest ice at the bottom and the most recent at the top.


    2. **Analyzing Ice Layers**: The ice cores are carefully transported to laboratories for analysis. Scientists study the layers in the ice, much like tree rings, to determine the age of each layer. They can use various techniques, such as measuring the ratio of oxygen isotopes, to figure out the temperature at the time each layer was formed.


    3. **Trapped Air Bubbles**: Ice cores also contain tiny air bubbles trapped within the ice. These bubbles contain samples of the atmosphere from the past. By analyzing the composition of gases in these bubbles, scientists can learn about the atmospheric conditions when the ice was formed, which includes past temperatures.


    4. **Isotopic Analysis**: Isotopes are variations of elements with different atomic weights. Scientists examine the isotopic composition of the ice, especially oxygen isotopes, which are sensitive indicators of temperature changes. Different isotopes reflect different temperatures, allowing scientists to infer past climate variations.


    5. **Calibration and Cross-Validation**: To ensure accuracy, scientists cross-validate their findings with data from other ice cores and compare them with other historical records, like temperature measurements taken from modern instruments. This process helps them confirm the consistency and reliability of their temperature reconstructions.


    6. **Detecting Missing Data**: It's true that ice cores may have missing data due to factors like ice melting. However, scientists take great care to choose stable, thick ice regions to drill, where the risk of significant melting is low. They also identify gaps or disturbances in the ice core records and use statistical techniques to fill in missing information where possible. Additionally, combining data from multiple cores across different locations helps mitigate the impact of localized melting events.


    In summary, by analyzing the chemical and physical properties of ice cores, scientists can reconstruct past temperatures and climate variations with a good degree of confidence. They use various techniques to verify their findings and account for any potential missing data to create a reliable picture of past climate change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,989 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    Here's another shorter version of the above brought to you by a huge scientific breakthrough and delivered wirelessly via thousands of scientific breakthroughs ...

    🤣

    Certainly! Here's a concise summary:


    Ice cores are drilled from glaciers, containing layers that reveal past climates. Scientists analyze isotopes and air bubbles to determine temperature changes over time. They cross-validate findings with other data sources for accuracy. Though some data loss is possible due to melting, stable drilling sites and statistical methods help fill in missing information. Overall, ice core studies provide reliable insights into historical temperature variations.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,351 ✭✭✭✭mickdw


    Interesting. Does it therefore not cast somewhat of a doubt over the data as if any data is missing, it will be for the melt period of high temperature.

    I see that they use multiple sites and what are deemed safe areas with least risk over melt but it makes a mockery of alot of these graphs that shoe an almost perfect sawtooth sequence of temperatures and then a sudden rise right at the end reflecting current conditions.

    How many previous rises above the sawtooth peaks have been lost?

    I feel it just fits the current agenda to ignore possible previous temperature highs



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,155 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    What do you think the aim of this scam agenda is? I mean we've been talking about climate change for decades and it's not like we've stopped growth or consumption because of the agenda.

    We're flying more than ever, more cars on the road than ever, buying more stuff etc. standard of living increasing the whole time.

    Whatever the agenda is they're not doing a great job with it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,989 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    I trust the science more than speculation not based on science.

    What else can you do?

    I asked ChatGPT reasons for and against ...

    ...

    Why do people not believe global warming is human caused ?


    There are several reasons why some people do not believe that global warming is human-caused:


    1. **Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories**: There is a spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories about climate change, leading some individuals to doubt the scientific consensus. Skeptics may latch onto these narratives as a way to dismiss human-caused global warming.


    2. **Political and Economic Interests**: Climate change policies often involve significant changes in industries and economies. Some individuals and organizations with vested interests in maintaining the status quo may oppose the idea of human-caused global warming to protect their financial positions.


    3. **Ideological Beliefs**: Climate change has become a politically polarizing topic, and some individuals' ideological beliefs may lead them to reject the scientific evidence if it conflicts with their worldview or values.


    4. **Cherry-Picking Data**: Critics of human-caused global warming may selectively use data or focus on short-term climate variations to argue against the long-term trends supported by the majority of climate scientists.


    5. **Complexity and Uncertainty**: Climate science is intricate, and predicting future climate changes involves uncertainties. Some people may misconstrue these uncertainties as evidence that human influence on the climate is not significant.


    6. **Fear of Policy Implications**: Accepting human-caused global warming could mean acknowledging the need for strong climate policies and lifestyle changes, which can be daunting and unsettling for some individuals.


    7. **Psychological Distance**: Climate change can be perceived as a distant or abstract issue, making it less tangible for some people to accept its immediate impact or relevance to their lives.


    It's important to note that despite these reasons, an overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that global warming is primarily driven by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. The scientific consensus is based on extensive research, data, and analysis from multiple disciplines related to climate science. Public understanding of climate change continues to evolve, and addressing concerns and promoting accurate information are vital steps in tackling this global challenge.


    And ...

    Why is human caused climate change false ?


    As of my last update in September 2021, the scientific consensus is that human activities are the primary driver of climate change. The overwhelming majority of climate scientists and scientific organizations worldwide agree that human-caused climate change is real and poses significant risks to the planet and its inhabitants. Here are some key points supporting this consensus:


    1. **Greenhouse Gas Emissions**: Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), deforestation, and industrial processes, release large amounts of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat, leading to the enhanced greenhouse effect and global warming.


    2. **Carbon Isotopes**: The carbon released from burning fossil fuels has a unique isotopic signature that distinguishes it from carbon released by natural processes. Studies have shown that the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are consistent with the release of fossil fuel-derived carbon.


    3. **Rapid Temperature Increase**: The Earth's average temperature has been rising at an accelerated rate over the last century, correlating closely with the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.


    4. **Ocean Acidification**: Excess CO2 in the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, leading to ocean acidification. This process harms marine life, particularly organisms with calcium carbonate shells, like corals and certain plankton species.


    5. **Consistency with Climate Models**: Climate models that incorporate both natural and human influences on the climate accurately reproduce observed temperature changes when human factors are included. However, without considering human influence, the models do not accurately match the observed warming.


    6. **Historical Data**: Ice core records and other proxy data provide evidence of past climate changes, linking significant temperature increases to periods of high greenhouse gas concentrations, including the present era.


    7. **Consensus among Scientific Organizations**: The world's leading scientific organizations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), support the consensus view that human activities are causing global warming.


    It's essential to base our understanding of climate change on evidence, scientific research, and the consensus of experts in the field. While there may be individuals or groups who disagree with the consensus, the vast body of scientific evidence overwhelmingly supports the conclusion that human-caused climate change is real and a critical issue that requires urgent attention and action.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Agreed I don’t think we will either but “we” won’t make much from it even if we did.

    Shareholders will alright as the generators are/will be owned by private companies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭Shoog


    This is how energy market have worked for nearly a century at this stage. A company has to have a registered operator in its place of operation which allows taxes to be levied. This is how governments claw back up front inducements and generally the income far outstrips the upfront costs.

    There is always an imbalance across grids and this is where marginal trades allow for income. The company/country with the biggest generating capacity will have the highest potential to profit from trading it's surplus.

    The projected overcapacity of installed wind will mean that Ireland will be exporting oversupply most of the time and since everyone is so concerned about lulls in wind somewhere in the grid their will always be plenty of demand. Countries like Norway have the pumped storage capacity to make huge profits from supplying peaker demand using cheap Irish excess wind, and if Ireland had the balls to do it they could to.

    The reality is that no government wants to become a major utility supplier and history has shown that this is generally an inefficient way of providing services. If a government want more of the profits from renewables then all it has to do is buy shares in the companies doing the heavy lifting, and again this is the model that Norway adopted to invest it's North sea oil revenues. This why Norway is now a hugely wealthy country and why the UK who spent it's North sea oil revenues is in the toilet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 41 smurph6


    There should be some body or organisation which pushes for meat/dairy made in Ireland to stay in Ireland. Only a very small percentage should be exported. If there is massive surplus then farming should be scaled back. Importing milk and dairy should indeed be stopped if we have have enough supply. Also agree what one poster said about us becoming more self sufficient with vegetables/fruit being grown more here rather than importing. I also think it's very important to promote more seasonal and locally sourced eating.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,443 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    If there is massive surplus then farming should be scaled back.

    in 2022, ireland produced approx 4.8l of milk per capita - per day.

    https://www.irishfoodanddrink.com/irish-dairy/



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,443 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    ireland was 0.7C warmer between 1990 and 2020, than it was between 1960 and 1990:




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Colours help emphasise the heat



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,443 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    it was a good decision if you ask me - the white text on greenish background in the earlier image is probably a little hard to read for some, and the colour in the second conveys more information.

    unfortunately that image went around social media portrayed as some sort of proof the media are trying to con us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,989 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    I always remember the geography teacher in first year I think back in the 80s telling us what the difference between weather and climate was; and we all got it. And this was a very average school. But we didn't have any kind of agenda making us think we were being lied to.

    Still, people don't understand the difference between climate and weather. Forget about climate change and global warming. People still don't know the difference between climate and weather.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,324 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    It's more that when it's hot it's climate change but when it's cold it's weather.

    I mean it's the height of summer and Spain, Texas, Italy are hot. That's not unusual.

    But the media and people who think we're heading for climate disaster are shouting and pointing at it as proof of something unusual happening.

    Now if Ireland gets a beast from the East this winter or if the US Midwest gets another polar vortex that won't be climate change. That will be weather and not unusual because its winter.

    Do you see the disparity?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭Shoog


    The issue in Ireland is less about how much grass you can grow and more about how much slurry you can manage. The EU scientists calculated how much slurry could be reasonably managed and plugged it into the nitrates directive. The Irish government went cap in hand and said sure we can manage way more than that and they got their derogation. Meanwhile they did very little to justify their claims to be able manage the slurry and surprise surprise the EU was right in the first place. The fine for mismanaging slurry are piling up and the farmers are crying fowl and asking for a bit more time to do what they failed to do over the last decade.

    So in short Ireland is way over it's stocking rate which would allows it to not pollute all of its watersystem. Available grass was never the issue here.

    None of this deals with the need to put large amounts of fertilizer onto the land to sustain grass levels for the intensive dairy and beef farms - much of it making its way straight into watercourses.

    Post edited by Shoog on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭Shoog




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    So before EU regulation came in to break up the ESB did Ireland not have one of the cheapest electricity prices to consumers in Europe?

    Guess who was providing the majority of the generation at that time…………… (I’ll help you- it was the semi state ESB where any profits made went back into the infrastructure).

    This is not the case now as private generation has to make a profit for shareholders.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 65,323 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    @PokeHerKing - "It's more that when it's hot it's climate change but when it's cold it's weather.

    I mean it's the height of summer and Spain, Texas, Italy are hot. That's not unusual."

    When hottest ever records are broken left right and centre every year for years on end ('21 / '22 / '23 and most likely even hotter in '24) then it is unusual. Just today and yesterday alone came very close to hottest temp ever recorded on earth (Death Valley California, over 56C) and in Europe (Sicily, over 48C). Canada went from hottest ever recorded 40C to 50C a few years ago. Numerous examples, even Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England all all time highs last year - in Ireland while it wasn't even sunny that day, otherwise we would also have seen close to 40C. These are just from the top of my head

    Yet people still keep sticking their heads in the sand. Nothing to see here, normal weather patterns, climate change doesn't exist, etc. Wake up people 😒 I want for my children and their future children that this world is still liveable in without horrific extremes that we are causing. Don't you all want the same?



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