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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Most of the increase in money supply over the past 2/3 years is from fiscal spending and not the finance sector.

    The problems with inflation are also down to the fiscal spending and then the increases in social payments has generated a wage spiral where minimum wage jobs need to pay more or people won’t work and so on up the chain.



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They are getting a bit of deflation also. Lowest in 18 years and looks to be heading south at a fast pace.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,187 ✭✭✭yagan


    Demographics were driving wages before the pandemic and as the UK is finding out importing cheap labour from outside the EU is not meeting the shortfalls in critical services. Educated worker shortages are a baked in factor that can't be engineered away with fiscal tools.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,399 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...again, not exactly true, there has of course been a major expansion of central bank created money, such as qe, but what happens in that process is that the reserve accounts of financial institutions are credit by the process, which in turn allows these institutions to be able to further expand their abilities to lend, and what happened in turn with this is, rather than most of this money going towards 'productive means', i.e. helping to make goods and services etc, it has been found its far easier and quicker to gain returns by using this money to simply speculate in asset markets, causing major inflation in asset markets, property, stocks, shares bonds etc.....

    ...if you think the bulk of our money supply has occurred in the last few years, during the covid period, we ve got problems, i.e. you can see a very large proportion of our society, again, is still deciding to ignore the catastrophic failure qe has been, and the general idea of financialisation of our economies, this is ultimately why we re all now eyeballing entities such as the shadow banking sectors, i.e. virtually nothing to do with covid measures you mentioned, i.e. this has been going on for years, if not decades, many respected sources have been warning us, including some that were warning us leading to 08! again, most of the global money supply now just sloshes around in asset markets, inflating and re-inflating these markets, i.e. its primarily used for speculation in such markets

    ...and once again, our current inflationary pressures have virtually nothing to do with the money supply, i.e. demand side, as they are primarily supply side lead, yes there probably is an element of demand side, but.....oh and we have some of the data to support this also, people arent stupid! the average joe and mary are not packed to the quills with cash, and have not been going on spending sprees, driving up prices, thats not whats happening here! hence why rapidly increasing rates wont work, it ll just do astonishing damage to our economies, and to many individuals, particularly those with debts...

    ...are you actually trying to tell us that the rapid increase in the price of energy has had little or no impact in inflation, serious? oh and all that data is there to!

    ...oh and theres some data there that also shows theres been a clear case of widescale profiteering by many sectors, but surely that hasnt also played a part in this game!

    ...its disturbing that some are still sticking to this bullsh1t, even when theres plenty of data to see whats actually going on!

    ...no wonder some commentators are just saying its the usual class war tactics!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    US PPI now just 0.1% higher than 12 months ago after today's report.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    US interest on it's debt up $100 billion in the first 6 months of 2023 compared to last year. It is now over twice as much as it's corporation tax income.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,399 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...bit of a misnomer, when you re the worlds reserve, and again, we re now firmly in the grip of the credit/private debt era, and it now has become our main concern, as its now largely being used to speculate in asset markets, causing credit fueled asset bubbles, and credit fueled asset busts!




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,977 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    According to you we need to be concerned about private debt. Okay, what's going to happen in the next 12 months?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Global slowdown affecting India as it's imports and exports continue to slump.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,399 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...its clearly obvious, we re all going to win the lotto! fcuking hell what an ignorant question! nobody knows, no human, no institution, nobody, except me of course, but for a fee!



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,977 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    "Be concerned, something bad is going to happen"

    -Okay, what is going to happen?

    "I don't know, nobody knows!!"



  • Registered Users Posts: 802 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Djovkic completely dead on his feet. Father time is undefeated



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    UK inflation now 7.9% higher than last June which was not as bad as expected.

    Headline: 7.9% v 8.2% exp. (prior 8.7%)

    Core: 6.9% v 7.1% exp. (prior 7.1%)

    Producer prices fell a lot more than was forecast.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Eurozone inflation now 5.5% higher than last June which was as expected.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,223 ✭✭✭herbalplants



    Irish R&D credit to be wiped out by new 15pc global tax

    Living the life



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Inflation isn't 5.5% higher than last year. Inflation is at 5.5%.

    If inflation this time last year was at 10% and it is still at 10% today then inflation hasn't increased. It has stayed flat. However, prices would have increased 10% in that time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,989 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    the problem is the creation of dollars by the fed. The us hasnt run a surplus since the 70s and the gold standard removal.if you take a loan in dollars and then print dollars to pay it off you devalue your currency. This isnt the financial sector's doing, its big government. One of the main reasons we dont see Argentine like effects in the US is the sheer amount of dollars in circulatiion and the US's place in the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,989 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Thats still more inflation though. 7.9% YoY inflation is shockingly high still. The UK is in their own clusterfook compared to the rest of the G7 and the EU27 tbh and it's not going to get better any time soon.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,989 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    That;s exactly it. Papers and news outlets claiming 7-8% is a drop in inflation. Yes it's a drop in absolute inflation but the prices have still risen in the 12 months.

    This is why inflation comparisons should be in percentage points rather than percent compared to last year/month etc



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Of course it is more inflation, and very high. Who could dispute that ?

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    I think you mis-understand me. I was correcting him because he was saying inflation had increased by 5.5% than June last year when it hasn't, it is either massively down or a little higher depending on whether you are talking about CPI or core.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Inflation is a measure of increase of prices.

    It is incorrect to say inflation is 5% higher than year previous, what that poster meant is prices are 5% higher than year prior.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Oh those prices are not coming down anytime soon, we all need to bring ourselves up to the prices and such is the cycle.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    You do not understand what year on year means i think.

    If CPI YOY was 10% June 2022 it means inflation rate was 10% higher than June 2021.

    If CPI YOY is 5.5% June 2023 it means inflation rate is 5.5% higher than June 2022.

    So inflation is 5.5% higher in June 2023 than June 2022 not lower.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    CPI is measured relative to base year cost of goods, which is normalised to 100.

    CPI year on year % is (CPI for year B - CPI(A)/CPI(A)) * 100.

    CPI is an index, CPI YoY is a rate. YoY means the inflation index is x% higher than previous years index. It does not mean the rate is higher.

    If you want to compare rates you can subtract June 23 YoY - Jun 22 YoY, which tells you June 23 YoY is 4.5% higher inflation in that year period compared to previous year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like a shortage of grain could be coming soon, looks like pork prices will be going up in Spain.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,868 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    The Dublin Airport cap is damaging the economy of Ireland as a whole, and must be scrapped forthwith.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,223 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    I can't read the full article but interesting facts.

    "Ireland’s ‘cash-for-citizenship' programme suffered from poor oversight, a lack of “any real vision”, and issues surrounding the vetting carried out on applicants, a report compiled for the Department of Justice found."

    Living the life



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