Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

interesting story about austrian lender entering market for anyone with access irish times pay wall

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/07/20/austrias-bawag-bank-confirms-plan-to-offer-irish-mortgages-through-moco/

The second half of this is very likely to come to pass anyway, unfortunately. Any potential large drop in prices is very unlikely, and too late anyway for a whole generation now. The stats on home ownership at retirement in Ireland are becoming very ugly. To quote an ERSI report from 2022:

"The research estimates that only 65 per cent of those currently aged 35-44 are likely to become homeowners by retirement given current trends, compared to 90 per cent of those currently aged 65+."

And the figures are even worse for the generation currently aged under 35.

A scenario where 35%-55% of pensioners are meant to pay exorbitant rent, while on a state pension or a very small private pension, is going to get very problematic. Given they actually vote though I'd suspect the state will end up having to build large scale senior citizen social housing communities come the 2040s.

Prices outside Dublin, Cork, Galway continuing to rise a lot.

Regional towns are seeing big price jumps from people moving away from GDA due to being outpriced.

Good god, it's revolting.

Perhaps she should consider a house share with someone other than her parents, and it comes as a surprise to no one that a single income buyer struggles to compete against dual income buyers for available stock, I really don’t see anything remarkable about that article other than my sympathy for the parents.

Well just doing some rough maths here - shes about to start her 8th year of teaching. It takes on average 3 years of teaching before getting a full time contract, so shes probably got about 5 years full time experience. That would put her on 47k gross a year, or 3k a month net.

As of today there are currently 5 total rentals on DAFT for Arklow, the cheapest is for 1600/month. Thats almost 55% of her net income, way too high to be sustainable. There are no individual rooms available to rent. And given shes a teacher she can't just up sticks and move - shes very much tied to her school.

What realistic option does she have in that scenario exactly?

Its worth bearing in mind too that this is someone who has two college degrees, a middle class job, and is in their 30s. Its not a minimum wage worker or someone at the very start of their career. Its also someone in a relatively low cost of living rural area, shes not looking to rent in Ballsbridge.

This demographic of person should not be forced to live with their parents in their 30s in an in any way functional housing market, its a hugely damning illustration of the current utterly broken state of affairs in Ireland. And its failing not just her, but her siblings and her parents too - all 5 of them should be voting for change.

God doesn’t forbid it, there is no great mathematical talent needed to understand that a renter/buyer with a single income will struggle in a market when competing against others who are willing to share the cost of rental accommodation and the price of a property purchase.

It would be great but entirely unrealistic world where most could afford their own place 8 years into working. I think the poster is reasonable saying that does not point to a housing crisis. That does not mean there is not a housing crisis but these are not good examples being picked up by media. That is how I picked it up from poster and I think they are being reasonable.

Which options? Can you show the thread some if its so easy?

Because there are literally zero rental options in Arklow cheaper than 1600 per month on DAFT.

At no point in time prior to very recently was it normal for a person with a masters degree, a good middle class stable job, and in their 30s, to be renting a room in a houseshare in a rural area in Ireland. Up until very recently a person of that demographic in that sort of area would comfortably own their own house at that stage in their life, nevermind owning an apartment, or even renting an apartment.

Options which mean if you are willing to drive, there are properties available to rent, and buy within a 20km radius of Arklow. When I mentioned a car, I had assumed you would make the connection.

I would also say that it may not have been as commonplace as you say for single teachers to own their homes 8 years out of college. Certainly I would be interested to see the stats you used to make that assertion.

Ok, so can you link to some of these plentiful affordable options to rent within 20km of Arklow that you keep saying exist, as already requested? Or are you just going to keep repeating how easy it is without providing any evidence?

I know large numbers of teachers who're all 50+. Every single one who was based in a rural area owned a property by 30, including plenty by themselves. It would have been incredibly uncommon to be in your 30s renting a room in a houseshare in a rural area - and not just for teachers, for any university educated professional with multiple degrees. Ask anyone actually from a rural area.

There are obviously no specific statistics publicly available for teachers, but for the age group as a whole in Ireland the trend is very well reported on. "The statistics show that over 60pc of those born in the 1960s owned a home by age 30, but this figure fell to 39pc for those born in the 1970s and 32pc for those born in the 1980s.[1]". Home ownership rates were even higher than those overall ones for university educated professionals in rural areas obviously, too - the overall figures include lower earners, Dublin residents etc.

[1]https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/home-ownership-by-the-age-of-30-nearly-halved-in-space-of-a-generation/40411353.html

The statistics don't bear that out at all. Current younger generations spend less money socialising than any before them, "There is a greater focus on enjoying your 20s/ early 30s now" is completely incorrect:

Thats trends in alcohol consumption among young people aged 15–24 years, 2002–2020[1]. They also have less sex, and less fun in general[2].

Which is fairly besides the point - when the median housing price is now €313,000 (€635,000 in Dun Laoghaire!) in Ireland, and the median salary is still only about €41,000 its pretty disingenuous to blame someone's lifestyle for not saving enough to buy a house. Thats not an affordable equation, even if you were saving 30% of your net income for a decade - which would be some going.

[1]https://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/37095/

[2]https://www.economist.com/international/2018/01/10/teenagers-are-better-behaved-and-less-hedonistic-nowadays

I love boards. "I have a house beside my job" so everyone else that works in the city that's not me should move to the aran islands and commute.