Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Nuclear - future for Ireland?

Options
1313234363755

Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Because nuclear energy is one of the only sources of energy that completely internalises all of its costs whereas others, mostly fossil, externalise a huge amount and get away with it.

    They will not reverse course and start building new nuclear because they understand it could not help them meet their strategic objectives.

    This makes no sense. They may not start building nuclear for various political and economic reasons, but its not because it could not help them meet their strategic objectives because that is just obviously false.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    From a purely environmental impact point of view , building and decommisioning a nuclear power plant, are the big ticket items - thats The effort -energy -resources,

    The fuel operating and maintenance theyre significant but no comparison, even storing the fuel rods is minor compared to decommisioning the reactor ,

    So it makes sense, that once you've built ( and switched on ) a nuclear power station that its run for as long is safely and to an extent economically practical..

    The germans deciding to not build more reactors - fair enough ..

    But prematurely closing plants down was knee jerk - unless they knew they were unsafe ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Shoog


    https://energypost.eu/how-much-will-it-really-cost-to-decommission-the-aging-french-nuclear-fleet/

    This is an interesting read, but to correct two things - the UK has shifted all decomissioning costs onto the state and the estimate is between €150-200 billion. Enough said there.

    If you ready the article I linked to you will see that the EDF has estimated a rediculously low figure of around €30 billion to decomission more nuclear power plants than the UK. When the bill comes a calling EDF will very probably go bust since it has both a terribly in debt burden and an equally terrible credit rating. At this point the cost of decomissioning will transfer to the state and since EDF will have already gone bust the whole remaining fleet and company will have to be nationalised.

    So I call BS on your claims that nuclear has a completely internalized cost base. EDF, the poster boy of the nuclear industry is a disaster waiting to happen (and I am not talking about its increasingly shakey safety record).



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,479 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    The Chernobyl disaster occurred as a result of scrimping on costs and operational mis-management. Does that sound like anyone we know?

    Also, the Irish economy has a habit of going from boom to bust in a couple of short years. Currently the exchequor has more money than it knows what to do with, but that won't always be the case. When critical maintenance is required, and with nuclear that means expensive, and we happen to be in a dip, how will we fund it?

    I'm not against nuclear. I just don't think Ireland is ready or capable of it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Credit rating BS.

    Siemens Gamesa, first global wind turbine manufacturer with an investment grade rating

    Standard & Poor’s awarded the company a BBB- credit rating with positive outlook and Moody’s assigned it a Baa3 rating with stable outlook

    Both agencies underscored the company’s leading position based on its diversification, technological strength and financial policy

    EDF:

    Moody's   Baa1 with stable outlook   06/06/2023   02/06/2023

    Standard & Poor's   BBB with stable outlook   30/06/2023   24/05/2022

    Fitch ratings   BBB+ with stable outlook   03/04/2023   17/05/2023




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Lafarge provided Type I portland cement from its Paulding plant to Irving Concrete of Ohio, which built a portable ready-mix batch plant to produce about 122,500 yd3 of concrete for the project. The construction of 15 to 20-foot-deep concrete foundations to support all of the 328-foot-high towers with 2-MW turbines required 30,000 tons of cement. On average, each of these below-ground support systems used 60 truckloads of concrete (750 yd3), which was poured in two steps.

    Good thing no cement is used in the foundations of all those wind turbines... Or Chinese steel.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Read the article to see the absolute hole EDF are in. Their cost estimates are delusional.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    EDF is state owned, so obviously it will have a decent credit rating. No one expects the French government not to pay the bill!

    BTW EDF is also a major player in renewable energy, hydro, wind, solar, etc. They are building offshore wind farms here in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    Sure you cant even get insurance for a thatch roof in Ireland. It doesn't mean we should not use thatch.

    Nuclear is the future. It suffers from lack of scale right now



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    Safety standards are extremely high in Ireland. Whether it is car accidents or industrial accidents, you can see how rare they are when you compare Irish numbers to overseas. Chernobyl happened due to poor Soviet safety standards. If they were use a lot of wind power back then, youd see many deaths in wind too.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,936 ✭✭✭✭josip


    <- Goalposts -> 🙂

    Your original post, to which I was replying, referred to solar panels only, not wind turbines.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The alternative is Ireland becoming the world's one and only hydrogen economy. Something I don't see as plausible.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Errr... Pretty much every country in Europe is rushing to become a hydrogen economy!

    Ironically France is investing very heavily in hydrogen tech:

    https://www.wfw.com/articles/the-french-hydrogen-strategy/

    BTW One of the big ideas for next gen Nuclear power plants and SMR's is to directly integrate the production of Hydrogen into them. Even the Nuclear industry sees the hydrogen economy as a fundamental part of their future!



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No, they are becoming hydrogen dilettantes in comparrison. Ireland's plan is hardcore: Renewables, a tiny amount of pumped storage, a couple eensy weensy batteries, many years worth of the entire world production of electrolysers, and a massive amount of hydrogen, because of the 6 weeks you will need to burn it when there's a dunkelflaute as long as the one a couple years ago.

    That's the ESB's plan - hydrogen, and almost nothing but.

    France is currently getting 70% of it's energy from nuclear and that isn't going to change, other than perhaps to increase as they have plans to build more.

    Ireland is going all in on hydrogen in a way I am not aware of any other country doing.

    Nuclear is the best way to make green hydrogen as it's a constant reliable supply and electrolysers work best with a constant supply, not being switched on and off to match renewables vagaries, so I'm not surprised at the plan to incorporate hydrogen production into SMR plants.

    The UK seems to be toning down it's earlier hydrogen enthusiasm; not here, though.

    One of the biggest problems with Hydrogen is it's huge round trip inefficiency when used for energy storage. It means that instead of spending €80 billion on offshore wind farms, you have to spend €120 billion, on top what all your hydrogen infrastructure costs.

    I think the whole thing will implode financially at some point. This country has a renewables hydrogen one trick pony plan that is uncosted. The public have not been told what this is going to cost. How can you have such a critical national policy and yet no idea of what it's going to cost?

    In Poland they tendered for the building of a couple of NPPs and US and Korean companies responded with prices. Their path to CO2 reduction is practical and based on technological certainty and is costed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Hydrogen embrittles everything it touches, think of rust on steroids. It literally wiggles between the atoms of everything it touches and brakes the covalent bonds destroying its integrity. This means that the infrastructure is both horribly expensive and short lived meaning that its not just a horrendous up front cost - its also an ongoing horrendous cost. On top of this is the fact that hydrolysis pisses away huge amounts of energy and then compression even more. You would be lucky to extract 50% of the energy you waste making it.

    These fundamental issues mean its failing to replace fossil fuels whereever it is tried - and that includes the fanboy country of Japan.

    Meanwhile cheap large scale sodium Batteries are set to sweep the board and are already in production.

    Its biofuels all over again - peddled by the same shills.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Hydrogen as it currently stands is a non runner, and it definitely wouldnt be for short term energy storage ,

    Directly making Ammonia is possible , easier to store and transport , but not there yet in efficiency terms ,

    It could be made with offpeak nuclear power , but the cost would likely be as prohibitive as using floating wind ..

    New nuclear isnt cheap either ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    So sizewell C is the proposed follow on from hinkley point, an exact copy with all the kinks ironed out , 3.2 gw in 2 reactors ,

    Currently priced at 20 billion , and thats already a couple of years out of date ,and also with Uk government putting up 50% of the cash , so cheap finance.. and it gets to piggy back on all the existing national grid infrastructure from sizewell 1 and 2 ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Meanwhile EDF are estimating that the cost of Hinckley Point C will be £32 billion !!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Also it took 10 years to consult and make the decision to build, that was to 2022,

    Construction could start by 2024 , (again that was if they agreed to build in 2022)

    And construction expected to take 9 to 12 years ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    And if youre worried about inflation , going for 8 % per annum, for say 14 years ,

    That 20 billion cost from 2022 , would be about 58.7 billion .

    Pounds sterling.

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui



    15 GW of nuclear with enough extra capacity to generate hydrogen for transport, industry, amonia production and to back up it's 4% capacity factor shortfall/downtime would cost €60 billion - That is only 70% of the cost of that power source banned from mention that the ESB has planned for.

    I can PM you the details if you like, given i can't mention them here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭techman1


    BTW Professor John Fitzgerald, chair of National Expert Advisory Council on Climate Change, on Newstalk last month, said exactly the same, that any Nuclear power plants we build would need to be backed up by Natural gas plants.

    John Fitzgerald is an economist , an old retired one now ,he talks alot of nonsense about economics. He is not an engineer or technologist, so what he says about nuclear power has zero relevance. Yes the government put him on the advisory Council but that says more about the government appointing incompetent people to state boards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,641 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I think you're off with those numbers OL3 in Finland cost €11b and can generate 1,600 MW, and things cost more in Ireland so would not be over €100b ? I know OL3 went over budget but surely it couldn't have been nearly double?



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    In your dreams, Hinkley Point C is costing £32 billion (€37 billion) for just 3.2GW



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    He is correct though, any Nuclear power plant built in Ireland would need a running backup, in case the power plant or reactor went offline. That is pretty much energy grid operation 101. If you didn't have a backup and a plant went offline, it could cause a blackout.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Do you find these figures up your ass. Its just been shown that Hinkley C is going to cost more than that by the end.

    i think we can all honestly agree that the final cost when decommissioning (an honestly uncosted process since it has never been completed on any plants in service) and waste containment is factored in works out to double the initial cost estimates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭gjim


    And add to all that it turns out that hydrogen has a potent (indirect) greenhouse effect - discovered in the last 10 years. Terrible news since it’s so hard to contain. Converting it back to energy by combustion releases far more NOx than methane. It’s like nuclear in one respect - it’s been promising an energy revolution for decades, has absorbed huge amounts of government subsidy but ultimately cannot come close to competing in todays energy markets. Expect endless trials an pilots but little of value.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Like clean coal which is still sucking money into the void. I know for a fact that many of these promising technologies are been promoted by oil interests to slow down green roll out./ If we just wait for the new miracle technology it will all be grand.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Just to be clear, we can get to our 2030 goal of 80% clean energy using just wind, solar, interconnectors and a small amount of batteries (plus fly wheels and a few other bits).

    All tried and tested technologies that we have already deployed and used in Ireland, we just need to build more of them.

    Some people even think that 90 to 95% might be possible with those technologies.

    Hydrogen or Nuclear aren't necessary to reach these goals. Frankly talking about Nuclear or Hydrogen is a distraction from us simply getting on with the business of reaching our 2030 goals. Once we meet our 2030 goals, we should then examine where we are, the technologies available and plan for the 2050 goal.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You can always twist the argument by picking the most expensive nuclear construction project mismanagement failure in all of human history, which it is.

    I could tell you that the two most recent South Korean Shin Uljin-1 and -2 APR-1400 reactors cost $3 billion each, or that 4 of the same reactors were just switched on in the UAE for $6 billion each or that Poland have contracted for several APR-1400's at $4.5 billion a pop, but any example that isn't Hinkley you don't want to hear about.

    You also don't want to hear that their design life is 60 years, making them about 35% the cost of that which can't be mentioned, ultimately.



Advertisement