Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

And incredible team that is still behind Ireland as we saw in the 6N and in the latest world rankings, almost every argument he made against Ireland winning can also be attributed to France but as usual just like the media some fans or experts are very selective when they consider facts, the main area France are clearly ahead is having the media spotlight on them who will stop at nothing to keep this narrative of France winning their home World Cup on track and I feel for any side that knocks them out as they will have hit piece after hit piece written about in revenge.

Do a quick count, how many of the current French side played in those finals or semi finals (ill give you a hint, its the same number as Ireland). And again desperately hanging onto history, certain fans have really just lost their mind at this stage.

I don't really think it is, its something I thought about at the beginning of the cycle and now I feel I'm being vindicated. But conversely that's why I think people backing SA are really clutching at straws. Yes they have but crucially they arent the best team in the world now and haven't been for the whole RWC cycle. History matters yes but certain fans and experts are putting far too much weight on the importance of history. The reality is the majority of what will determine who will win the RWC is the work that has been done over this 4 year cycle and recent form, thinking you can ignore all that and back a team just because of history is naive to put it mildly. Going into this RWC the best 2 teams in the world based on the last 4 years are undoubtedly Ireland & France which is reflected in the world rankings.

Because they had an extraordinarily bad head coach for the first half of the cycle which was a mitigating factor in assessing their 2019 cycle, in the 2nd half of the cycle they managed to win a Rugby Championship. This cycle they had the same coaching staff throughout so there isn't the same factors involved.

They are related, the issue here is applying too much weight to history and its effects. People keeping banging this drum with France in the last 2 WC's despite how poor they were playing and the RWC showed that the most important factor in assessing how a team will do at a RWC is their form both currently and over 4 years.

It's quite clear that this is a different Irish side to previous one's both in how they play and how they are psychologically which were all red flags with the last few sides. One thing I see online is a lot of people trying to criticise this team based on either A. Ireland in 2019 and B. Leinster in the Champions cup this year and while there is some truth to A. (I think using Leinster as any indication on how Ireland go is utter nonsense and I still can't believe some people try to use it as any evidence) what I think both these points prove is that even the Ireland detractors have accepted that there aren't many, if any, flaws in the current side that they have to resort to digging through their archive or even more desperately use a club side as evidence. The best as well is during the 6N thanks to the injury crisis so many players got a look in, we got to see further evidence of how strong mentally they are and that the team can still get even better which they will need to be in order to win the tournament.

I genuinely have no doubt if we go out in this RWC it wont be because we bottled it, we'll go out because of how utterly ridiculous our side of the draw is as in reality we could play at our best and still lose as anyone out of Ireland, France, NZL, SA could beat the other on any given day and you still have SCO who cant be discounted either.

Rugby semi-finalists have proved harder than soccer to change at the World Cup level - a more predictable game with fewer teams to choose from - but there will be change eventually. Anyway, we could play better this time and still go out early because of the draw, something we’ll have a hard time explaining to the rugbyphobes. In defence of Argentina, I imagine they must get much less time together as a team than we do given that many of our players belong to one province? Surely, this would tend to give us better results between World Cups?

They were a mess 2 years out from the RWC, going into the RWC they certainly weren't a mess. In 2018 they were nominated for team on the year (only 3 teams are nominated) and in 2019 going into the RWC they won the rugby championship. The one positive from the first half of the WC cycle was many Bok players got blooded such as De Klerk, Marx, Steph du Toit, Am, Kitshoff etc. which helped down the road as these players were already up to speed with test level by the time Erasmus came in. In 2019 they were in a much better spot going into the RWC as they were more consistent, in better form and their squad was just pushing the average age profile of most RWC champions (their squad on average was 1 month older than the Irish squad and the Irish squad was considered old) and 4 years on a lot of those players are still there and most aren't as good as they were back then and most of the replaced ones haven't been replaced with a player of similar quality.

This member of the NZ public isn't.

I don't think he said Aus, RSA and NZ were the 3 best teams but were 3 of the best teams in the world. Which I think is a fair call.

I can't see the Boks winning this RWC. I don't think they have the consistency or depth to win 3 tough knock out matches in a row on top of coming through a tough group. I feel the same about the ABs.

People pointing out that RSA won the Rugby Championship prior to the 2019 RWC, I'm pretty sure the ABs didn't win the RC in 2011 and 15. But did in 2003 and 07.

Indeed. Schmidt-ball became utterly predictable and disastrous for Ireland in the last World Cup and 6 nationals when Schmidt was at the helm.

I think Mouaga is the right choice at 10 but I could see Foster tinkering with DMac or BB there if the ABs lose a game. They should be in match back up, not starters.

I think the hookers are good enough but I'd like to see Aumua there instead of either Taylor or Coles. Probably Taylor because Coles is such a pest.

100% agree with all you said about the loosies.

I think Schmidt has definitely improved the side and isn't looking to have them play like he had Ireland play. He is obviously going to place a big emphasis on accuracy and discipline, which is needed. However the skillset that the kiwi players have is higher than what Irish players had during his tenure so the team can play a different style. As was mentioned, more like Leinster than Ireland as they don't have to work on basic skills. Hope that makes sense.

There's a huge amount of hindsight here.

SA were well beaten in the pool by NZ, were very unimpressive against Japan in the QFs and fell over the line with a late penalty to beat Wales in the SF. They didn't remotely look like a RWC-winning team until the final so I'm not sure they were that well primed at all.

Of course, once they actually made the final, they didn't look back, credit where it's due.