Fancies For Today III

PP not renowned for genorosity has given us a bit of a chance today by paying 4 places in the 10 runner handicap at 2.25.

It is a trappy handicap but i tipped Forza Orta when it last ran in a big field York handicap finishing 7th but only beaten just over 3 lengths.

At 7 to 1 the 4 places it looks an ew bet to me only one lb higher than when last winning.

17.25 No6 won 5-2

16.40 No9 8th 5-2

16.50 No10 8th 11-2

17.35 No9 2nd 5-1

17.00 No7 Won 5-1

16.35 No4 2nd 7-2

6 staked

7.5 returned

Turned a profit, hit the post with 2 . 1.5 point gain

Had a few quid on Sonny Liston at 25 and 26 to 1 on betfair and a small bet ew on Bless Him in the 5.oc Ascot,probably one of the toughest handicaps of the year.

I know he doesn't post here anymore but Aidan, longshotvalue on twitter has just had a 150/1 and a 20/1 winner. Never seen anything like it.

Another 40/1 winner today by Aidan

Not on Twitter. Can someone post them here please when they are posted please.

Tbh, it wouldn't be worth posting them because, as he admits himself, he could have 20+ losers in a row. I'm following him a long time and have never seen a run like this.

He finished up with St Lawrence winning today aswell, 30s on the exchange before the off.

So from my reckoning he had the following winners 150/1, 20/1,50/1, 22/1 and a 30/1 over the last few days. Open to correction.

Back to the mundane stuff,the Norththumberland Plate,one of the richest handicaps in Europe takes place in Newcastle on saturday.

A race i have always liked even when it was run on turf and a race in which the draw plays a part,i will give my tuppenceworth on the race tomorrow night but a couple running tomorrow at Newcastle may provide the cash to bet with.

In the 4.55,a race for amateur riders recent winner LUNA MAGIC stands out for me at 6/1 with several books paying 4 places.

Brodie Hampson is probably the best jockey in the race and at the price is a very good ew bet.

Also at 6/1 MONDAAMEJ stands out in the 5 furlong sprint where 4 places are available.MONDAAMEJ is running really well and will take beating books go 4 places and two ew singles and an ew double can pay off.

Too bad ran out of steam.

Another 1.. 710 hisdamis mrdeverit ew little big info. Small chance.

Good competitive staying handicap in Newbury tomorrow at 2.25 and 4 places available with most firms.

If i am not mistaken i tipped the winner of this,RESHOUN last year and i think i read in the last few days that he has run his last race.

I have a very strong fancy for NOVEL LEGEND trained by James Fanshawe and the fact that Buick rides will help his chance.

Only 7th at Ascot last time may not seem great but his run was much better than it initially appeared and was only beaten 3 and a half lengths over a trip that just looked a little too far.

On the rail from the start before moving out to challenge over 2 furlongs out the horse had no room and had to switch back inside before fading into 7th,not beaten far,that race however was over two and a half miles and he is much better suited by the 2 mile trip tomorrow.

Though this is a tough handicap i am going to have a bit more than i would usually have on as i feel he has a great chance ew.

Nathaniel Greene should be the danger but i believe NOVEL LEGEND has lots more improvement and a drop of rain would help.

BIGGLES hacked up when i tipped him up here 2 weeks ago.could be called the winner a long way out then and can win again under Ryan Moore in the very valuable 7 furlong race at Ascot 3.oc.

BIGGLES is a 7 furlong specialist and despite the huge field i fully expect him to win againat odds of around 5 or 6 to1 6 places.

Also at Ascot i expect HUKUM to beat derby winner August Rodin and the rest in the big race at 3.40.

I cannot see HUKUM out of the first 3 and is a solid ew bet at around 5 to 1.

At Necastle in the 2,oc i am having a few quid ew on BROCTUNE RED at 11 or 12 to 1,runs well at Newcastle and though getting on in years is likely to win one more this year.

Happy enough today,13/2 winner in one of my two main bets when HUKUM won a thriller,Broctune Red 3rd at 14/1 gets a little profit and we can ignore Biggles run.Stall 24 wins ,26 was 2nd,18 3rd,20 4th,19 5th,11 6th and 25 was 7th.

Six of the first 7 home raced on the near side and TACARIB BAY who "won" the race on the far side from MONTASSIB 2nd and FRESH 3rd can be backed in their next couple of outings as all 3 can be considered unlucky and will pay their way in decent handicaps.

If the horse turns out again so soon would have a good chance as far as i remember low draws tend to go well in the race.

Did ok today7 /1 placed ,16/1 2nd and 8/1 2nd,had a nice ew patent and 3 ew singles for a reasonable return.

Nothing at a big price for tuesday but a few at much shorter prices seem worth a few quid.

In Galway in the 7.15 LIVIO MILO should be hard to beat,has run well on a few occasions and his experience and ability to go on the ground makes him a bet for me and i am hoping for a bit of a drift in price because many punters do not like a horse that runs up a sequence of placed efforts.

In the 2.50 at Goodwood i really like MILLEBOSC.Very useful in France the horse ran very well lto and is not too highly tried in this race.

I expect MILLESBOSC to win here before going on to better things and he could easily outclass what looks like a reasonable field.

His form figures may mean that he drifts in the morning and if that is case he will be a very strong ew bet 5 places.

These may be the only bets i will have but if i see anything else worth backing i will put it up here.

The big betting race on Wednesday is the Galway Plate,as competitive a handicap chase as one will ever see.

Everything owned by J P Mcmanus has been laid out for this and must be considered regardless of recent form,Mullins and Elliot often have a dozen or more runners between them all trying to win the big pot.

I have always preferred youn horses and i am very interested in 7 year olds who have won 6 of the last 10 Plates.

Only a handful of 7 year olds run this year and the standout for me is ASH TREE MEADOW who looks to have been laid out for the race and was 4th behind Hewick last year when only a 6 year old and getting 11 lbs from the winner.

He receives 29 lbs from Hewick (inc jockeys claim) and must have a great chance,his mark was protected by a run over hurdles and on the flat this year, he will be fit and has plenty chase experience as the winner of 4 or 5 novice chases.

His trainer has 8 in the race but with young Gilligan on board he will take beating at around 9 to 1 ew 6 places.

In the 2.25 at Goodwood Oisin Murphy rides WHITE MOONLIGHT for Suroor in a 100 grand race and must have a very good chance in this group 3 over 7 furlongs,he will be suited by the course and can make the running if he wishes,has been running well here and in Meydan and can improve again imo.

Worth a decent ew bet at 8/1 4 places with most bookies.

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Great ride on Ash Tree Meadow

And a Fantastic pick from the Zimmer!

The Guinness hurdle at 5.05 is competitive as usual¹ with a pile if horses laid out for the race Tudor City has won this twice already and I think he will go close again for Breslin his Irish American owner.

Tony Martin keeps his weight down for this and the hatrick may be on 6 places at 16 to 1 merits an ew bet.

Ella Perfecta is 50 to 1 to win the novice chase at 2.45,has form at Galway and is worth a very small ew punt and the betting without one or 2 interests me.

His trainer Colin Murphy is shrewd and Ella could outrun her price.