Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

As well as NZ, South Africa have a nice draw too. Scotland first up, then a handy one against Romania (rest all their players) then against Ireland before facing an already (one assumes) eliminated Tonga with a second string team.

Luck of the draw has a real impact. Not just the opposition but how those games fall in terms of scheduling. Having a nice schedule to allow front liners rest up any knocks or focus on games further down the line is a big boost.

I don't think it's a massive coincidence that the winners of the last 5 tournaments (since it went to 5 team pools) has had a second tier opponent drubbing in their final game with their first choice players mostly resting up/training for the knock outs.

2003: England 111-13 Uruguay

2007: South Africa 64-15 United States

2011: New Zealand 79-15 Canada

2015: New Zealand 47-9 Tonga

2019: South Africa 66-7 Canada

Ireland have a rest week the game before their final game which will equally be useful.

I guarantee you not one team will be fielding a second string against tonga and Scotland first up for South Africa is a Banana skin.

Scotland have beaten SA just once in the last 20 years. And that was 13 years ago. For all their “we can beat anyone” talk lately there are a few teams that they have really poor records against, namely New Zealand, South Africa and Ireland. They’ve just 2 wins against all 3 sides in the last decade, both being against us in 2013 and 2017. And technically that 2013 win was more than a decade ago now.

They aren’t the banana skin some make out. Even during our disastrous 2019 year we beat them twice. By 9 points in Edinburgh and then by 24 points in Yokohama. Their average loss over the last 10 years against SA is 21.5 points. Only once in that time did they get within a score of SA. And SAs poor form was right in the middle of all of that.

Yes I could be wrong but I just really thought that when Retallick and Whitelock came up against Ryan and Beirne last year they struggled badly and looked leggy. My eye has been drawn to the significant improvement in the NZ backrow this championship above all else. Fair enough Barrett has played well this championship but I'm not sure you would say he's the form lock in the world!? I've always had in my head he is backrower playing lock.

Is Ireland or South Africa gonna put out second string teams against the basket case scots

Your confident the scots are shite.

I disagree but only time will tell. How far do expect Ireland to go in this WC?

I wouldn't say the Scots are shite but I would still say if us or SA were to lose to them Scotland would need to have the game of their life and IRL/SA would need to have an off day. At this stage I'd almost say they have a better chance against SA as judging by recent form SA are looking lethargic and for the most part look past their best plus judging by Scotland over this cycle they tend to start the 6N very strong and then fade as it goes on, it could be the case that they play their cup final against SA and then by the Ireland game they start showing the usual weakness they've shown in all those 6N campaigns.

That's some good stats man. Not sure Ireland will be depending on those when it comes to a do or die clash.

If previous performances dictates future outcomes then how the hell did Munster beat Leinster in a semi final in the Aviva???

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Don't think you fully appreciate what a banna skin is. And your dismissive view of Scotland proves my point. Of course South Africa and Ireland will be odds on but the unpredictable nature of Scotland (a team ranked 5th) causes me unease. The first round they take on South Africa who like you said, should win handsomely. I predict this will be a sticky one for South Africa who haven't really caught fire as of yet. I will agree to disagree 😜