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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭Bakharwaldog


    All of these things are possible. They might be difficult but if there was will they could be implemented. I don't really understand why you think they are impossible? I'm assuming you are so jaded with decades of lack of progress in key areas that you find it hard to believe anything can be done to solve things. I can understand that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    I am a realist. Wishful thinking will get you nowhere. The time it was possible, if it was started on time was years ago.

    Tell us how the government are going to get 100,000 houses a year built, because they will need to exceed that, starting tomorrow to catch up in the next decade or two. Maybe they can bring in conscription and force the younger generation into the building trades. Train them all up in a few weeks and we are off an running.

    Sorry, but i dont see it. Im not jaded in the least. Ive been pointing this out for years. Same as ive been pointing out the continuing fcuk up to the rental market and the constant things they are doing to help that are obviously going to make it worse for the last 10 years. And guess what it has got worse. Every single time they intervened to make it better, they made it worse. And then they kept doubling down on it.

    No, sorry, i dont see us making the housing situation better the way we are going. and I dont see us being able to change direction enough, let alone fast enough to fix it either.

    Maybe we can stick in a tax here or there and that will solve it :) Thats about all they are good for. Never solves anything though does it.

    Then go through all of the housing ministers going back 10 or even 15 years. What makes anyone think another one will be any different to the rest of the populist liars and idiots that have come before.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Is it Malahide the Dublin suburb you are talking about?

    Living the life



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I don't, sorry.

    Do you have any timeline when the global economic system is going to collapse, or the property market for that matter?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    No, but I'm not the one doing the equivalent of "after-timing" by coming in and dismissing something in the news as something that I knew in advance.


    I reckon that there will be at least a handful of people out of those ~900 who, despite working for the company - didn't have your inside knowledge of their impending redundancy. They will have leases/mortgages/loans/plans that will now be interrupted.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 208 ✭✭Bakharwaldog


    I think we more or less agree. I believe in theory it is possible - if there was genuine political will. In reality however I dont believe we will get anywhere near where we need to be.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,621 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt




  • Registered Users Posts: 661 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    I'm noticing a lot of properties in the €600k+ bracket in South Dublin sitting there for a long time in recent months. Sellers seem to be pricing based on sales from last year without regard for interest rate increases.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    It's not after timing, it was literally flagged by Accenture during their last round of global layoffs earlier this year that further layoffs would occur as contracts with tech companies approach expiry towards Q4 of 2023. It was not only expected within the company, but also in the wider industry.

    It's certainly not exactly the apocalyptic revelation that you make it out to be, and you'll find that many of the people affected already have jobs lined up as it was known and well flagged by the tech companies that certain contracts would not be renewed. Lot's of people have essentially been on garden leave enjoying life for the last few months as work from tech companies has fallen off yet contracts remained in place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Fair enough. You knew in advance. Pity you didn't tell Accenture management a few months ago when they were announcing that only 400 jobs would go.

    I don't know who flagged it to you but you must have great connections given that you knew more than the local senior management.

    These additional 890 job cuts are apparently part of the same reduction drive.



    The news, given to staff on Monday, came just weeks after the last of 400 colleagues departed in a previous round of job cuts announced in March.

    At that time, the business said it had decided on the scale of retrenchment required following a “careful review” of its operations here. This announcement portrays the latest cuts – bringing total losses here to more than treble the originally announced number – as part of that same 19,000 adjustment. So what gives?




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    There have been 3 houses within 2 km of me on the market for over 600k in the last month. All of them snapped up already. Dont know the sale prices but a neighbour said one of them went for 40k above asking anyway.

    Also one across the road thats sale fell through for lack of fiber the last time went back on the market a couple of weeks ago and is sale agreed again for even more.

    There is one about 5km away that is not shifting for the last 2 months, but thats because it should bever have been put on the market at €300k never mind over 600k which it is on the market at. The place is falling down and needs to be practically rebuilt



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,111 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    I was thinking surely the banks will come under pressure soon to increase deposit interest rates which will increase mortgage lending rates?



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,105 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    This thread hasnt changed, same posters posting links to job cuts (but never job announcements) to support their assertion that the ceiling is about to fall in on us.

    My sister and her husband emigrated to Singapore 2 years ago, finally go around to selling their apartment, nice 3 bed one but on the n11 so its not exactly tranquil, couldnt sell it for 570k before they left they are sale agreed at 620k now, load of houses around me, that need plenty of work, all were on at over 1m, some well in excess of it, most of the signs say sale agreed or sold now. If its slowing down, its doing it slowly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    A lot of projection there. Nobody mentioned anything about ceilings falling in. No need for the hysterics or strawmen. Nobody is trying to victimise or attack you so don't take it so personally.

    You are free to link to as many job announcements as you like if you think they are relevant.


    The story of your sister's increase is somewhat relevant, but it's not a massive jump either in 2 years. It's just under 4.3% per year. You'd need to give the full context too as regards how much effort was made at that time. There would be no point in telling us they couldn't sell it for 570k two years ago if they never actually put it on the market then



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,105 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    victimise or attack me?, did i say anyone was, or are you imagining things again Donald?

    Going from unable to sell, to 50k more, over a period where we have been constantly hearing from posters in this thread about prices falling and a stalling market etc etc (also went sale agreed in 3 weeks) seems an unlikely result if you were to believe some of the rhetoric on here.

    why bother posting job announcements in isolation, i dont think they are relevant in a thread about property prices, if we see a significant increase in the unemployment levels maybe but outside of that i dont think its relevant really.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,057 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Unable to sell because of covid, not because noone would buy. In the past 4 years there have been very little properties unsellable - it has in fact been a sellers market for some time now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    It's not all about unemployment levels. You can have a situation where most people can keep their jobs but real salaries decrease. Opportunities for raises and promotions fall fairly quickly when an industry takes a hit.

    I posted the Accenture link as it was a big story due to the fact that a few months ago they said they only needed to fire 400 people in Dublin. Turns out they got their figures wrong and it's now suddenly 1,290. That's from a company whose role is supposed to be being able to get other companies anticipate changes and be ready for them.

    The rest of the posts on the matter were due to another poster implying that everyone already knew about the 1,290. If he hadn't said that, there would have been no more about it.

    570 --> 650 over two years is just a little less than CPI over that time btw in case you are interested.



  • Registered Users Posts: 312 ✭✭MrsBean


    They never said they 'only' needed to let 400 go. And they didn't get their sums wrong either, this is another round in 'right-sizing' after hiring too much, too fast during the pandemic. Sure haven't plenty others announced more than one round of layoffs over the last 9 months? Intel, Meta, Microsoft etc. A headline about a company getting its numbers wrong in an anonymous IT opinion piece does not make it true.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Should be pretty easy for you to post a link to any article or a blog or even a facebook or twitter post from a few months back where it explains that the number is ~1300 rather than the 400. Even just the one where you read it or talked about it yourself. Even a boards.ie post from a few months back explaining that it was that number.

    I don't know why people want to make a big deal out of it by wasting energy and keeping bringing it up. There is no point. It's just a story about ~900 people losing their jobs. Not the end of the world in isolation.

    I only brought it up as it would be of relevance to the overall economy if that sector is experiencing difficulties, which would have a knock-on impact to the property market. I wasn't expecting nonsensical "challenges" on it.

    By all means say it's not relevant. Don't make stuff up though. You can prove me wrong on that easily by providing that link.


    I mean I can give you loads of links of papers from March quoting the figure of 400 if you really want them and can't find them





  • Registered Users Posts: 20,105 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Not sure what you mean, they had it listed for sale, no one was interested



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,105 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Why is cpi significant to the house price? And 570 to 620 doesn't tell the story as there wasn't a buyer at 570 so in reality it was 'worth' less



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Was it marketed at 570k? How long was it left advertised at that? Just to get the full context of the story. If it was on the market for 6 months, taken off, and then just put back on in the same state 18 months later and went for 50k more then that would be more significant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    They are under no pressure to raise deposit rates. They will only increase once people start moving money out of the bank chasing rates elsewhere and that’s not happening at present.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,105 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭newmember2


    Why would someone bid against themselves?





  • Registered Users Posts: 12,645 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Could there have been a bid in between that has since been withdrawn or deleted?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭wassie


    We were building up to 90,000 housing units a year in the mid 2000s, at a time when the country had 20% fewer people in it than we do now.

    The quality of a lot of these builds were substandard though. Buildings are subject to much more oversight and inspection which does add to the cost upfront. But much cheaper than remediating them down the line.

    Not suggesting for a moment that this is why we are not building at this level, but noting a lot of construction during the boom was pure shite.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,656 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    I know the US is a different market with different ways to finance a property, but there is an overlap when it comes to the overall housing stock available.


    It appears that low inventory of stock is keeping prices up there as well as here and elsewhere. The market is stuck and may take years to become unstuck since Covid.

    So while rates are keeping prices at bay, low housing stock means that prices aren't really falling even though the property is more expensive to service with a mortgage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    This guy is warning of a potential credit crisis leading to mass margin calls emenating from Japan having to defend it's currency

    Have a listen and make up your own minds




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Agent could have come back to them and said what the base acceptable bid was for the vendors.



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