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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans in OP**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Ok, so we can limit the list of suspects to reasonably able bodied people who could walk, or maybe who had access to transport and were capabale of alighting said transport. That narrows it down a bit!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Ironically, yes, it's that shallow.

    We may also add to that, somebody who knew that Sophie was at home, that Sophie was alone and somebody who knew how to get there, either a local or map and received instructions, all possible.

    In absence of real evidence the Gards should have investigated by possible motive, not focussing on certain people. Financial records of Alfie, Shirley, Bolger or Daniel, even the Ungerers would have given a bit of insight, - don't know if that was done or not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭chicorytip


    It's an hour long walk - at a leisurely pace - from Bailey's to Sophie's. Nobody else would have been out and about walking or driving those roads at that time, say around 2 a.m. People rarely do during daylight hours down there. So Bailey could well have been back at the studio, washed and changed his clothing and slept for a few hours before serving Jules breakfast in bed. I believe Bailey knew Sophie and had been introduced to her previously by Lyons despite his claims to the contrary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    I think 'introduced' would be too strong a term. As far as I remember reading, he may have pointed her out in the distance, and then again he might not have, as he wasn't certain.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭tinytobe



    Knowing somebody or being introduced to somebody certainly doesn't prove murder.

    The scenario you're describing is not impossible, but would Sophie have opened him at 2am in the morning?

    I was always guessing that Bailey could have been back at the studio by 4am at the earliest, giving him enough time to wash and change.

    Is it known when Bailey served Jules breakfast in bed?

    Was Bailey wearing the same clothing in the morning than at the day before? Also an important question.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    It's far less likely to be some fairytale rather than the more realistic theory outlined by Bailey himself. The husband sending a hitman on a secret mission to West Cork or the frail neighbours turning out to be murderous drugs Barron's is something Tarrantino or one of those fellas would right about. Complete fiction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    No evidence was found for anyone at the scene. Whoever committed the murder got extremely lucky for a few different reasons. It looks like it was a frenzied attack caused by someone who lost control. That fits one of Bailey's confessions, it also fits what he did to Jules just a short while previously. He also mightn't have walked there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    To start striking someone, chase them and then repeatedly strike them over the head tells us it was frenzied. When using an implement to strike someone, the evidence was probably all over their clothes. Something a fire very close to your house to burn your coat and shoes would help destroy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules




  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    You have been repeatedly asked for real life cases paralleling the scenario. If it is so 'realistic'.

    You have been unable to provide any examples.

    The complete fiction and fairytale description therefore appears to more accurately describe your own.

    Whereas there are cases here and in other jurisdictions of husbands in divorces hiring hitmen, or criminals threatening and killing witnesses and intimidating neighbours to stay quiet out of fear of their lives.

    Your statements are without merit or foundation.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Even if one were to consider Bailey's 'theory' the more realistic one, the murderer could still have been anyone.

    Where there are more than two possibilties, if you pick one above another without evidence you are more likely to be wrong than right.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I've spent a few holidays down there and, believe it or not, I reckon I know the back roads around there having driven them (and there isn't really many of them). To cut across a field wouldn't be too difficult either because of the general topography around there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Remember you need to do it on a winter moonlit night while drunk though.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Your argument has been squashed a long time ago. Males randomly attacking and murdering women is not a freak incident. It's a regular occurrence. How you can claim otherwise is baffling.

    This is a realistic scenario because it came from the mouth of a man who is the leading suspect in the case. Mad cap hitman theories and drug barons living next door is pure fantasy land.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules


    Of course it could be anyone. How could we know differently. It doesn't change the fact that Bailey is the most likely based on what we do know.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Musicrules




  • Registered Users Posts: 150 ✭✭Honorable


    There is plenty evidence the Gardai investigated other suspects. Have you read any of the books?



  • Registered Users Posts: 150 ✭✭Honorable


    He may not have been in a rage until he was rejected, if he was. As someone else pointed out most of the evidence would have been on hia coat and destroyed in the fire.

    He was well used to walking around at night



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    The black coat was wearing at the Christmas day swim, that was taken as potential evidence by the Gardaí and yielded no evidence? That black coat?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,038 ✭✭✭Deeec


    So you dont think the rich husband could of possibly hired a hitman to get rid of his wife. Remember this husband didnt even bother to come over to Ireland upon the discovery of his wifes murder. This 'grieving' husband had a girlfriend at the time of Sophies murder, got her pregnant soon after and married a year later - how distraught do you think he was about his wife being murdered? Is this normal behaviour - no it isnt - he had the resources to arrange for her to be murdered and gained from her death. He was one of the few people who knew she was alone which gave the perfect opportunity. The gardai were blocked from investigating the French side so who did investigate the husband - also remember he had strong political connections. To you it may sound like fantasy but this scenario happens more often than you think.

    The frail neighbours - Your argument that Alfie and Shirley being frail is nonsense. They were only in their 60s - would you describe someone in their 60s as elderly and frail? Alfie died only a few years ago and I think Shirley is still alive. They were not frail elderly people in 1996 . Sure Shirley was on her way to the dump - would a frail person be able to do that. They have admitted they have had issues with Sophie. Its possible tempers flared which got out of hand. Even if Alfie and Shirley are not responsible I think they know more about what happened that night/morning than what they have said.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 150 ✭✭Honorable




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,038 ✭✭✭Deeec


    In the car that Bailey bought to the scene of the murder the next day under the nose of the gardai? Thats brave.

    Not even an idiot like Bailey would do that. If he done it he walked to Sophies house not drove.



  • Registered Users Posts: 150 ✭✭Honorable


    There were parts of a coat found in the ashes of the fire.



  • Registered Users Posts: 399 ✭✭csirl


    Always thought that the simplist explanation is the most likely.

    Alone home owner killed/violently assaulted in the days before Christmas? Your first guess would always be aggravated burgalry gone wrong. Unfortunately there have been many cases over the years.

    A lot more likely than randy Garda, drunk Englishman, foreign hitman, local drug lords etc.

    How and why was this possibilty eliminated by investigators?

    Car with 2-3 strangers turns up at gate. STDP goes down to see who they are. Remonstrates with them, resists. Scuffle and assault. One of them checks that there's nobody else in the house and they scarper.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Is there anything to indicate he was missing a coat shortly after the murder?

    It may well have been forty coats from wanderley waggon. After all if you had forty coats who would notice if you only had thirty-nine!

    Building a case against Ian Bailey depends on constructing unsubstantiated fantasy on unsubstantiated fantasy.

    Rather than work backwards from a conclusion, one should work forwards from the evidence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    The "job" could have been done by anybody who is able bodied, can walk, move his or her arms and is able to read a map or able to drive as well.

    The sheer idea, that it could only have been a local with local knowledge is rediculous. The idea was spread by the pathologist who was probably unhappy about the trip from Dublin down to the South West.

    I don't not know if Sophie's husband Daniel was ever really investigated by the French police. They most likely asked for an alibi which he was able to provide and that was probably it.

    Placing a phone call from a public phone box to somebody who "had contacts" and this contact hiring a contract killer is not beyond possibility. The contract killer maybe travelling on a false passport ( it wasn't all electronic and biometric back then), taking maybe two flights, change planes somewhere, and the Gards in South West Ireland would never have found out anything. A plane arriving from Madrid, Amsterdam or Bruxelles, with a passenger from France is something which happens daily.

    Payment in cash, no transaction, a bag exchanging hands, Daniel most likely had some extra cash somewhere, - also not impossible. Half up front, other half upon "completion of the job".

    No Hollywood script writing or other stories.

    One thing is certain, Daniel had by far the biggest financial gain by Sophie's death. She would have been eligible to half of Daniel's estate, and possibly also child support payments to their son.

    This certainly doesn't prove he did it, but the motive can not be dismissed.


    Regarding Alfie and Shirley, if it was them, I always had the feeling as well, that they knew a bit more and were excluded from the investigation too early. And if it was them, I would suggest the most likely motive was something drug related and they were probably coerced by somebody to do it. I also don't think it would have been Alfie alone, he'd have help from Shirley to clean up the site, get rid of any evidence, etc... After all they were the only ones being totally alone with Sophie in this area. Nobody would have heard anything, any noise, any screams, etc...

    Nothing of this is proven, of course, all speculation from my side.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Utterly disingenuous.

    The scenario you describe is so vague as to be absolutely meaningless.

    And it doesn't even fit the description for what happened - because you aren't even trying to argue Bailey went there with intention to assault or murder. So you've picked a huge catch all vague scenario, and still get it wrong.

    You were asked to provide a parallel to this case - of a male:

    • leaving their own home and partner after a night out
    • to head in the middle of the night across country i.e. not in immediate vicinity
    • to someone they did not not know or barely were acquainted with (bonus - but would be instantly known if seen by her neighbours)
    • to 'try it on' (yet leave no sign of sexual assault or evidence of themselves at scene)
    • to be so enraged at being rebuffed as to brutally assault and then murder the female?

    Is that a regular occurrence??? If it so realistic where are all the precursors?

    Bailey said there was a champagne bottle in the cottage. There wasn't. His description of scenarios and crime scene is second hand information. It means nothing.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,563 ✭✭✭Padraig Mor


    We've also had the benefit on this forum of someone (Bannasaidhe?) who actually met and talked with Bailey for ages in a gathering at Alfie's house a few months before the killing, when the subject of Sophie (briefly) came up. According to her it was quite clear that Bailey had zero clue about Sophie and expressed no interest whatsoever in her when she came up in conversation. She also knew about the killing before it was even reported on the news - so much for the 'Bailey knew details before they were reported' theory - everyone down there did! Interestingly, she had expected to be interviewed by Gardai given her dealings with Bailey (and had written down the details because of this) - but they never contacted her. Given that she was dismissive of Bailey as a suspect, it's not too much of a leap to think that's why the Gardai didn't talk to her.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    No, there were buttons found. There's nothing to establish they were from a coat other than supposition from a Garda investigator overstepping their role.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,132 ✭✭✭chicorytip


    The available evidence lends creedence to the belief that he, at the very least, knew of her and where she lived. The available evidence lends additional creedence to the theory that he had interacted with Sophie previously, perhaps in relation to his writings which he erroneously believed she had an interest in. We have statements from the Bouniol family and Sophie's friend Agnes Thomas saying she had spoken to them about this strange ind individual who wrote poetry whom she had met. All of that has a ring of truth about it rather than an air of fabrication.



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