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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Absolutely, theres a reason "Celtic tiger build" is a synonym for low quality these days.

    But that 90k a year completions is the equivalent of about 110k a year per capita completions now, and even higher in the years to come as our population continues to increase rapidly.

    So the idea that 30k per year completions is a reasonable hard ceiling for the rest of this decade is pretty ridiculous. At 60k a year we'd still be running at about half of the mid 2000s, so it should be very achievable even with higher building standards. And might actually make a dent in the housing crisis.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Important to note that he is pointing out the problem of low inventory of stock for sale is being caused by a very low turnover rate of existing stock, and not the low levels of new build developments.

    That's the same thing that's happening here, albeit for slightly different reasons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭newmember2


     low inventory of stock for sale = very low turnover rate of existing stock.

    'Why' is the issue that needs resolving.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,656 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Yes, but I didn't mention new builds.

    If one looks at Daft, they will see that stock for sale on it, is still much lower than it was pre-pandemic.

    Similar issues are seen in Australia where interest rates have gone up 4% but there is a record-low amount of housing stock available to buy/sell which is actually causing house prices to rise again, even though interest rates are also rising. A very weird phenomenon.

    I am not sure what is happening with new builds in the US, but I do know inflation was a big issue for them, especially the price of timber. We all know the issues with new builds in Ireland. Last week we saw people queuing in cars overnight in Cork to try and get their hands on a 3-bed terrace for 400k or a 4-bed end of terrace for 500k.

    Simply put, there are just not enough new builds around either and those that are, are snapped up instantly for good money.

    Apparently, the estate agent had 800 enquiries for 40-odd properties for phase 1. There wasn't even a showhouse, it's just an empty field at the moment.

    Another example, a showhouse in another new build estate in Cork is being sold for 550k, and its a 3-bed semi.


    As to the last point you made, that is an issue too. I know 2 friends of mine in what you may call starter homes looking to upgrade, but with the lack of stock they cant. One of them has been looking for the past 3 years but nothing of interest has come up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    They might have been told to up the offer or just decided to max out. We bid significantly more to go sale agreed and end the game.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yep, I realise you didn't mention new builds, my comment was more the benefit of people who didn't watch the clip and automatically assume "shortage of inventory" means "shortage of new build inventory"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭wassie


    The low turnover in the US is attributable to the fact that the majority of consumer mortgages are issued on a 30 year fixed rate. Trading up means forgoing your cheap low fixed rate with a new considerably higher fixed rate on a potentially more expensive property, so people are choosing to sit on the sidelines and paydown the mortgage and build up equity.

    Funadmentally whilst 30 year fixed rates are great for consumers, it's not so good for the banking sector that has to borrow short and lend long, increasing risks for banks when interests rate rises like they have.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,746 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    They can swap those fixed cash flows back to floating



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Something similiar has been happening here for the past 15 years or so - due to large amounts of mortgage holders with trackers, negative equity or arrears there are a high number of people sitting on the sidelines who might otherwise have traded up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Convenient that there's no mention of the finance houses that were bailed out during the gfc involved in mass hovering up of available residential property over the previous decade driving up rents and creating an Airbnb bubble



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Which bailed out finance house have been hovering up residential property?



  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    Total supply still trending downwards...




  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭picturehangup


    EA's also driving up the prices for sure.

    If you want to bid online, most EA websites will only allow you bid 5000 under the asking price, which is superinflated in several of the properties that we have looked at.

    Viewed a property in Maynooth the other day, asking price 475000, for a semiD. Cheap lino throughout, no decent flooring. The cheapest of the cheap, and in need of major reburbishment.

    Bidding starts at 470000. What a rip-off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt



    I never understand why somethings like cheap LIno impacts people’s decisions on buying a property as can easily be replaced relatively cheaply. Would be much more concerned about something like the Kitchen that would cost to replace.



  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭picturehangup


    It was't just the lino. Yes, kitchen was in an awful state, doors hanging off hinges, just wear and tear of age. The wardrobes in the bedroom were a disaster, all need replacing. To bring the place into the modern age would cost at least another 100,000 especially if trying to raise the BER rate. Skirting boards were hanging off the walls. Imagine leaving it like that, but why wouldn't they, when they know some desperate sucker somewhere will buy.

    In another house we viewed, there was a line of broken tiles in the kitchen. When we placed our house on the marked, more towards the midlands, we were advised to replace the tiles, which we duly did. It's also a matter of pride.



  • Registered Users Posts: 627 ✭✭✭lordleitrim


    I think if you're selling your principal private residence, you tend to have more pride in its sale condition whereas if you're offloading a house you only ever rented out to tenants, the same sense of pride or effort to tart it up for sale isn't there...especially in a sellers market where desperate homehunters will bid in excess for just about anything in any condition.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    If you take out the BER rating and replacing kitchen you are taking a couple of grand to resolve its cosmetic.

    it’s also worth noting that the majority of house have poor BER ratings (unless your buying new). That doesn’t make the house unliveable…if it did 70-80% of all housing stock would be unliveable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    You are not getting the point that @picturehangup is making. Price is too high for the muck that is for sale.

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,553 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    That is subjective, if the property sells, you/the op are wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭picturehangup


    You are not getting the point that @picturehangup is making. Price is too high for the muck that is for sale.

    Correct. Greedy EA's are overpricing such stock, and folks are over borrowing what they can afford for this rubbish.

    Another financial disaster waiting to happen. The same poor tax-paying sods will be told to pay the debts of others for a second time running, mark my words.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    When we were selling we said to the EAs we got to value it that we would need a month or two to tart it upo. They said dont bother. If you get a new kitchen or paint the walls or fix tiles etc that the new owners 90% of the time would be gutting the place anyway so it woudlnt bother them. They said it might bother one or two buyers but they were the ones who didnt have the money to be in bidding wars anyway and we wanted bidding wars.

    So after we moved into our new house, guess what we did. Changed the bathrooms and kitchen :)

    I drove past our old house a few times and once saw our lovely kitchen in a skip with our shower door thrown in there too and bits of my lovely shed that I built a few years ago. Pretty sure the rest of the bathrooms were underneath.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    As far as i can tell the state and charities and reits are buying most of the property around where we used to live.

    I dont know any normal buyers who have mortgaged anywhere near what I would have considered too much for them. At least not these days anyway. The mortgage lending rules have put a damper on that.

    The problem as I see it are the state, charities and reits with so much money, they are pushing people totally out of the market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,553 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Would EAs/Vendors be basing guide prices on what the market has been willing to pay? I’m struggling to see why you think a vendor maximising the value of their most valuable asset is greedy. Surely when you were selling your home, you wanted the most you could get for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Noticed on the ires Reit report from last week that they are offloading apartment blocks to housing associations. Some merry go round going on.

    State selling for a pittance and buying back at close to the top of the market



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05



    We will always have an affordability crisis as long as this circle of stupidity persists.

    Continually propping up rents and property prices with taxpayers money will exacerbate the problem.

    It can only be stopped by

    A. Coming to our senses and stopping the madness.

    B. Allowing the madness to bankrupt the country, as before and we start at square 0 again




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭wassie


    There are a lot of interventionist policies in play in Ireland that all help to distort the market which only increase the effects of the current levels of demand

    In another snipe at his Sinn Féin counterpart, Mr O’Brien noted that Mr Ó Broin said the First Home scheme would inflate house prices, but he said: “There is no proof of that happening.”

    But they are doing their damn best to make sure they don't fall.

    edit:incomplete sentence
    Post edited by wassie on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Not surprised. It would be just ultimate stupidity to rent long term now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,057 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    headline is no surprise, CIF looking for favourable treatment as ever.

    But this is a real strange one:

    Separately, the organisation warned that the “exodus” of private landlords for the market was exacerbating the country’s housing crisis, and called for the introduction of softer tax rules.

    It said that landlords should pay tax on their rental income at the standard income tax rate of 20 per cent, up to a maximum of 32 per cent including PRSI and USC.

    Landlords now an official member of the CIF?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    Not strange. If rentals are more attractive it increases demand for housing from investors. Higher demand drives up house prices meaning they can sell for more and theres more demand for new builds. They want house demand high and costs down.



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