What do you think the Winter of 23 to 24 will be like?

It will either be cold, or mild.

It will probably rain a lot.

I reckon mild wet and stormy which only brief colder interludes. A few dry mild spells too.

Probably as mild as the past several but wetter in parts - also Feb to continue acting as a spring month as opposed to what used to be the coldest month winters past.

Mild and Dry hopefully

No ‘displaced Azores high’ (whatever the hell that is) on that bingo card?

I have heard an old weather lore that says ‘for every fog in October a snowfall in winter’ and looking through the archives there is more than enough evidence that this holds true. Oct 1916 is the only one I can find that wasn’t anti cyclonic and therefore too windy for fog.

Sounds ridiculous but so does the St Swithin lore.

a perfect example here, one of many ..

Mild, windy rainy with 2 days of sleet here in Loughlinstown 1Km from the coast.

Something like this again though would be nice.

This map attempts to show what the pattern may look like during the last quart of the year, and is only based on years with developing El Ninos during the summer and autumn, rather than even single winter with el ninos.

The MSLP anomaly shown in the map above for the Oct/Nov/Dec period shows that lower pressure is, on average, more likely. The problem with those anomaly maps though is that they give the impression that lows are more likely to run to the south during the late autumn/early winter during el nino years, but the actual mean MSLP pattern would suggest a more W/SW flow, with lows running more the the north, to be the broader theme.

I personally hope with have a wet and stormy Autumn and Winter. It's been a while since we've had such.

I predict unseasonably warm temperatures to counter balance the unseasonably rubbish July we've had. To counter balance the rest of Europe going into a period of cooling, a detached Azores high will park itself over Ireland in early November and remain there until late January. All time winter high temperatures in Ireland will be smashed and an unprecedented low number of days with ground frost. Golfers around the country will rejoice global warming and enjoy unbroken winter golf in shorts and t-shirts

My thoughts exactly. Though I'm predicting mid to high 20s with everyone complaining it's too hot and it's "just not natural". 😀

I can hope, can't I 🤣

It might not be the winter we deserve.... It's the winter we need!

Interesting take, can you elaborate

Welcome back Ken:)

2009-10, the coldest winter since 1978-79, was a moderate El Niño modoki with the warming focused on the central Pacific. There have been plenty of examples of cold winters under El Niño but not under strong, there hasn't been a single one as far back as the 1890s. They've been largely mild, Atlantic driven affairs. These are the closest they've gotten:

• February 1983 was a cold month and was during a super El Niño. Not that snowy in Ireland as high pressure often ridged in too close. This followed a stormy and mild January, indifferent December.
• November/December 1965. Both cold months, especially November which whilst very wet with some severe flooding in the east was also exceptionally snowy. I'd say the mountains would have been absolutely battered that month. December was not that remarkable. The January/February following were some of the milder of the 1960s.
• January 1958. Contained very snowy, cold weather and exceptional mild in the space of 10 days apart. The north had a snowstorm from a proper, very cold northerly blast. March 1958 was also very cold and had snow episodes. February was very changeable but did have a northeasterly towards the end bringing snow to the east. December was indifferent.

My guess is mild and wet, temps little different to the summer. I well remember the long run of very mild wet winters back in the early 2000's and I think we are heading back into a similar phase.

Probably just a cooler version of July. Very Mild and wet.The last strong nino was 2015. Mild and wet. Summer 2015 was a poor summer although not the washout this July was. A relatively cool summer. December 2015 being the warmest on record i suppose wasn't that much cooler then July 2015 lol. The first half of autumn 2015 was also relatively cool. Then the mild temperatures took over and that was that bar a short cold snap around mid Jan. Followed by a chilly spring. Had a cold snap in late April with very heavy hail showers about. That's about as much as I remember of that yrs cold season 15/16. My hopes for this winter aren't much better.

And it looks like this winter could be a strong El Nino. Oh well at least we may get some wind storms this winter.

July 2015

Mean: 13.9C

Mean max: 17.8C

Mean min: 10.1C

December 2015 with difference from July

Mean: 8.2C (difference of 5.7C)

Mean max: 11.4C (difference of 6.4C)

Mean min: 5.1C (difference of 5.0C)

(These values are based on the same stations MT uses for the forecast contests)

The standard IMT difference between July and December should be 10.1C, not 5.7C 💀 I don't have the 30 year averages for the mean max and mean min so cannot speak for the difference of those.

Here's the first look at December and January from the August update of the C3S seasonal models. These are just for fun, they are NOT to be taken seriously in any way. Their skill is very low which of course makes sense as it's such a long time away.

December shows a tendency towards higher pressure in the high latitudes with low pressure across the UK & Ireland and much of Europe. This looks to me like a very unsettled month with the possibility of cold outbreaks but the main thing is wet. I'm thinking months like December 1978 and 2000 for example, much of those months were very wet especially in the south and east. However, they both ended with cold outbreaks because of blocking. I'm only using these as examples of what I interpret here, doesn't mean 2023 would be the same if it were to verify this way.

The blocking signal to the north gets significantly stronger in January and is placed over Greenland. NAO looks very negative and pressure is low to the east of Europe, however there's a lot of white in between. This either means no signal or average pressure which for us is low and Iberia is high in January. So I suspect this would be a more westerly signal than you would think. I think of 2018-19 when I look at this anomaly which had a lot of blocking but it was never in the right place and one of those places was Spain.

The latest CFSv2 for January 2024 could not be more different to some of what the C3S have said. It shows the Atlantic onslaught unleashed with southwesterly winds all the way from the Canaries. It looks very December 2015 I got to say. That was the last strong El Niño too..

The CFSv2 changes daily whilst the others shown above run once a month.