Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

The latest CAA stats for May show that MAN hasn’t quite absorbed the big increase in capacity the A333 provides over the A321 versus the previous month but did see a decent increase in loads compared to the same time last year. The base has definitely found its feet this year but needs some flexibility in terms of fleet, the A330 is way too big for JFK in winter but it’s a case of needs must until additional narrow body capacity is available.

Business demand is undoubtably softer in Manchester than it is from Dublin but it’s workable, particularly strong on BGI.

Still heavily rumoured (locally at least) to see a new route next summer. It would require another based aircraft of course.

Well they don’t have much choice with the fleet they currently have.

It’s three routes, one seasonal. The original plan was for four including Boston which never materialised due to the delays in acquiring their UK AOC and the reopening of travel in Ireland taking precedence post-pandemic.

Boston seems to be on the back burner, at least until the XLR arrives. It’s Chicago that keeps getting mentioned around Manchester recently.

Economy does quite well out of Manchester, often overbooked but business class doesn’t do great… often single figures. They don’t have the fleet to expand anymore out of there and they even if they did would the aircraft make more in Dublin or Manchester ?

The same could be said about New York and they still launched it? In fact management have come out on more than one occasion to say that it was their own data which convinced them Manchester was a strong contender for a new transatlantic base. Passengers are usually willing to pay a premium to fly non-stop and Manchester was deemed a large enough source of demand to sustain itself without largely impacting the hub strategy at Dublin.

I think it all comes down to strategy, we all know the ‘DUB HUB’ has been the core focus of the business for a number of years now and the cynic in me would say the Manchester base was a pandemic stop gap they were already committed to by the time restrictions at home were lifted.

Looking at the bigger picture suggests there might be a bit more to it. Aer Lingus had built a strong presence in the north of England for its transatlantic services via Dublin, the airline has long had the desire to diversify its business, they would have had huge amounts of data, there was a gap in the market following Thomas Cook’s collapse, IAG were probably encouraging as it kept Virgin in check and had first move advantage over other potential new entrants like Norse, Play, JetBlue etc.

In terms of fleet flexibility, Aer Lingus is hardly one to shy away from second hand wide bodies. If a business case is there, aircraft will be sourced.

We’ve heard grumbling from Aer Lingus about facilities and capacity constraints at Dublin holding them back. Manchester, if it continues for the foreseeable, will always be a niche part of the business but it gives the airline some leverage and if it’s profitable I don’t see why it can’t be part of the overall success of the wider business.

I don’t think they’ll ever attempt to run Virgin out of Manchester, nor would they be successful in doing so but having a decent transatlantic presence there keeps them under pressure and ensures VS/DL + Sky Team don’t get a major foothold in a key market.

The sooner Aer Lingus is properly integrated into the transatlantic joint venture the better, as of now it feels like it’s in name only but I believe from the winter schedule things start to be aligned more closely.

Speaking of Aer Lingus routes, Denver has appeared on the website.Terminal Info page. Terminal 1 Concourse A.

MSP and DEN for 2024, possibly x4 and x3 weekly.

EI-NSC also back in service today after a week on the ground.

Would Denver have to be operated by a330 due to the range? A321 would satisfy MSP?

For my money, they should start leaning into SNN as a hub to get east coast US pax to LHR/AMS/CDG/BCN at a competitive price (lower LHR taxes/fees, SNN is cheaper & less congested than DUB so should feed into price), preclearance a big bonus too. I know they had plans for this pre COVID but definitely think a SNN hub could support at least 3 A321LRs, if not 4 of them if its marketed correctly - I'm always surprised at the amount of connecting traffic on EI119 for example.

It's pity that FR feed collaboration that was mooted a few years back never came to fruition. A few first wave flights into SNN from EU/UK on FR (less likely to have delays) might have made a good feed for EIs US routes... SNN is quiet and small... Would have been a good test-and-see trial for low cost interlining.

"As a hub to get US east coast passengers"

I'm not saying it should be come a hub a la DUB, but it certainly could become a base or hub of ops for transatlantic similar to what PLAY/Icelandair do in KEF.

EI use GE engines on their A330s, whereas I assume the ones coming off lease/available use Pratt & Whitney or Rolls Royce.

Are there complexities in having the "wrong engine" beyond having to keep a different set of spares around the place?

Part of me wonders if there's a critical mass here. Maybe the 330s going out of MAN could be the other engine type for example.

Now that QR is receiving a350s again, they may return to leasing out their a330s as they become surplus. Would be great if EI had time and notification before any new arrivals to order and retrofit the cabins prior to service entry, if expansion is planned.