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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I prefer the wider picture, even if that may appear cold. Russia's lost already. It doesn't matter if it takes over the whole of Ukraine. Even that's not a win. Remember the US took over Iraq and Afghanistan within weeks, captured the capitals and removed the incumbent leaders, taking remarkably few casualties to do so. The vast majority of their wounded and killed came after they "won". Russia hasn't even passed that first stage and has lost a magnitude more men and materiel. Note how we hear of insurgency actions behind the Russian lines and never behind the Ukrainian? And that's mostly territory the Kremlin claims is pro Russia.

    Ukraine's fúcked too of course. Their already struggling economy also screwed, their agriculture dead in the water for years at least and millions have left the country, with millions unlikely to return. On top of already dire demographics like Russia.

    That's just Russia's war, sorry, "SMO". They've really screwed the pooch in the wider geopolitical world. Their economy, never exactly motoring beyond oil and gas is in freefall. BRICS? Give me a break. Of all the trading blocs out there it's one of the smallest only really pushed by Russia since this ballsology kicked off. China and India who don't like each other are in much bigger blocs, China's in trouble anyway, Brazil is too close to the US and not just geographically, South Africa's looking down the barrel of failed statehood, where they can't even keep the lights in in rich areas and we're seeing stuff like kill all White people kicking off. And that went well for Zimbabwe...

    Note too how Kremlin spin rarely mentions China and India anymore? I wonder why... They've pivoted to Africa(and North Korea FFS). They've had to. Let's face it the "West" including Russia only gives a damn about Africa when there's yet another bloody humanitarian disaster, when human sticks on the telly and socials tug at our heartstrings and purses, resources to be grabbed, or proxy wars to fight that don't involve headline grabbing White people dying. That so many in regions of Africa appear see putin as a saviour illustrates the rinse and repeat idiocy involved there.

    Russia's demographic decline has been worsened and unlike Europe and the US nobody but those from the dirt poor stans wants to go there. Even after putin threw cash at Russian families to fire out more kids the birthrate continues to fall. Their brain drain continues too. Putin changing educational rules and breaking from the European university system illustrates how desperate they are to try and keep graduates in the country. And it won't work.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭strathspey


    You are quite naive, russians and Ukrainians will never live in peace after this war. What I can tell you pretty much conclusively is that one of the outcomes of this war will be a natural border of hate towards russians stretching from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. Having worked with, socialised and come across many Lithuanians, Poles, Czechs and Slovaks I can confirm that these people have nothing but unadulterated hate for russians and all things russian, without exception.



  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭strathspey


    I'm ok with a destroyed russian nation. In fact I see no reason for this last bastion of an empire to even to exist in the modern age. The sooner it is broken up, the better in my opinion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,213 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    I think we'll definitely see a modern equivalent of the iron curtain along these borders soon enough. It still surprises me at how many Russian tourists are still being let come to the west though. The EU really should have stopped that (and deported the oligarch's families) a long time ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭zv2


    I hear that Ukraine is potentially a very rich country if it is developed.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The consequences for Europe and the wider world, that's why Russia can't become a failed state.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,412 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Russia invaded Ukraine

    Russia started this war

    Russia raped, pillaged and murdered there way through the country.

    Fcuk Russia and every Russian soldier on Ukrainian soil deserves whats coming to them.

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,886 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Agree. I think alot of the Eastern / Baltic countries (and Finland?) have already restricted their access as much as they can, without something collective at EU (I suppose Schengen) level.

    Some countries still seem to accept the (IMO) bad/faulty arguments often put forward earlier in the war on this thread e.g. Russians should not be collectively punished this way, it is a benefit to us to let them flee Russia/Putin etc...and then you also have Putin's catspaw in the EU (Hungary)....

    edit: I am a bit curious now about how many visas we are handing out to them + the trends...I am cynical and expect the worst there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,669 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    All well and good but the question is how victory can be won. I don't think Ukraine has gotten enough support from the west and this is why they are struggling to make progress. I think privately western nations still believe Ukraine will lose the war and that's the real reason for the fumbling. It's wrong that Ukranian generals are having to send soldiers to the frontline often with no air support.

    No NATO force would ever countenance that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,743 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think some in the west are happy to see a weakened Russia on the world stage, but at the same time they do not want a failed state on their hands with all the chaos that could bring about. It maybe that some in the west wanted a frozen conflict to develop all along instead of an outright victory for Ukraine. Their calculation could be Putin will come to the table and that an eventual deal with Putin is the least worst option than the risk of a civil war in a nuclear armed state if a total defeat is inflicted on Russia

    If this is the calculation its a dangerous one, unless Putin comes to see an eventual deal as the only way of ensuring his own survival. If not he could see compromise as a sign of weakness and a green light to try again.

    Post edited by nacho libre on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Bro saying this town is about to fall is like saying Ukraine is about to capture Tokmak after Ukraine makes a small advancement. Last I checked there were battle's going on outside a Ukrainian held settlement a few KM from Kupyansk.

    Best case scenario Russia captures the East half of the town and Ukraine blow the bridge.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Fcuk Russia and every Russian soldier on Ukrainian soil deserves whats coming to them.

    Yes, that's more like it. Soldiers are fair game, whether they want to be there or not, that is war.

    The Russian people beyond that aren't though, any thinking outside of that is genocidal, fit for tyrants and scumbags like Putin. Nothing worse than seeing people drop as low as that.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭rogber


    Ukraine as a country is in absolute bits already, and severe psychological trauma among the population. It will take a long time to heal and rebuild even if they eventually drive Russia out, which doesn't look likely in the short-term.

    Corruption within the very war machine in charge of securing the country's survival doesn't help either. Good to see Zelenskiy taking action:




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,930 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Victory is relative. Ukraine have already pushed Russia back from their capital, all the way to about 18% of the country. Many expect a point will be reached when neither side can make progress and out of that negotiation talks will likely start (overtly or behind the scenes), most likely through a third party, e.g. Turkey.

    Some are speculating this winter, but I don't know.

    From the widely held view of "Putin will never back down", yeah but isn't the 3 day operation he thought it'd be. Any inch of territory he holds of Ukraine he considers himself "up", and there is likely a cash out point where it's just not worth the strain on the military and economy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,455 ✭✭✭jmreire


    That's the point, they do not have a choice. Regardless of what you know, and many Russians know very well what's going on in Putin's Russia, you are not allowed to question let alone contradict official policy. Say you live in a large apartment block, with your wife and kid's, and have failed to turn up at the mobilization / registration office on the appointed date. Which means that you will get a 2nd and final appointment. Failure to turn up for this appointment means that you are a criminal, and a fugitive, automatically barred from all state services, non-existent in fact. Then the mobilization squad arrives at your apartment looking for you, and they mean business. You will be dragged out, even as your wife and kids are shouting and screaming, and trying to hold on to you. They will twist your handcuffed arms up high behind your back, forcing you to bend forward, and frog march you out to the police wagon. No one in the apartment block will come to your aid. All doors on all floors will remain firmly locked and bolted. Any interference would be punished, and maybe with the objector joining you in the police wagon. On the street, people will pass hurriedly by or suddenly remember something that they have forgotten, and have to turn back to get it. They know better than to get involved. So maybe you and your family and friends, are completely anti-Putin, but that's a position that you have to keep to your self, and not publicize, anytime, anywhere. And definitely not in any public place's, or in front of people you don't know. Its what happens in a Mafia state, and that's how Putin controls it. Forget all the remedy's available to you here in Ireland /.Europe. Legal representation, right to remain silent, day in Court etc. They do not exist in Russia. The Courts, if they can even be called as such, will reinforce Putin's laws.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    From very early on it's been my humble that Russia will likely 'keep' much of what they occupy for the moment, Crimea isn't even in play(neither is Odessa for the Russians and Kiev may as well be on Mars), the main hope for Ukraine was to push through the middle of the landbridge, but Russia's dug in like a tick now, so unless something changes radically on either side the front/border won't change much.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,455 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, many Russians know exactly what Putin is and has been doing for many years, even without TV, Internet etc. They have experienced it up close and personal. One of my many memories of Moscow and Muscovite's is sitting in a bar, and the news come's on TV. After a brief look, most turn away with shrug of their shoulders as if to say " usual Kremlin Bullshit". And now with You Tube, VPN etc, they are as well clued in as we here in the west are. So now technocrat, you are in Russia just what would you do to change it, and motivate your Russian friends to join you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,669 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I don't think any of the corruption purges in recent months would be happening but for US pressure. Zelensky has little choice but to deal with it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,455 ✭✭✭jmreire


    And that was the real reason Putin wanted it, The NATO security crap was exactly that, crap.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭zv2


    @rogber "Ukraine as a country is in absolute bits already,"

    Most of Ukraine, outside the war zone, is intact and functioning. Seized money from the oligarchs will be used to restore much of the damage. Some towns/cities may be lost forever but investment after the war will fix a lot of the physical damage and much of it is being fixed even as the war goes on.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think privately western nations still believe Ukraine will lose the war and that's the real reason for the fumbling

    I don't think anyone privately or publicly or covertly thinks that, russia has already lost the war and are treading water the only question that remains is how they'll reverse themselves out of it and who they'll take with them as it happens.

    The west has backed Ukraine to degrees that were completely unthinkable before the operation began with more to come with russia screwing china over as well by waking up the western arms industry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭technocrat


    As time goes by I am more inclined to think the majority of Russians support Putin and his illegal invasion of Ukraine.

    There at best indifferent and at worst blood thirsty war mongers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Mainstream news reporting the same opinion today. What has the west failed to deliver, genuine question as I'm dipping in and out of this so honestly not sure.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,752 ✭✭✭zv2


    As he said, some promised kit did not arrive. South America has thousands of shells and the Americans asked for them - even offered compensation - and they refused. Bastards. People keep talking about politics and who gets what out of this but the central issue, at least for me, is the moral dimension. This alone is reason for everyone concerned to get on board and do all they can.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Artillery shells just for one example.


    The West is talking a million a year, when a million a month would be serious and already been seen fired in a month during the invasion.


    We hear talk of getting up to 3 million a year in some future date , whoop de doo.


    Every military warehouse in Western Europe should be seriously depleted because it is all going east.


    Money, support and investment should be pouring in to the arms industries of Europe, it might not consider itself at war but Russia and many others view themselves as fighting it.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The European Steel and Coal Community, an international organisation that relied on France and Germany not just living in peace but actively cooperating, was formed 6 years after the end of WWII.

    It would need massive changes in Russia in terms of their governing and behaviour but obviously it is possible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    South America hardly swayed the game here though. I'm more so on about the big game changer shipments from NATO talked about a few months ago, have they not come to fruition?

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The Left are quiet strong in South America again, especially Brazil, Lula will not side against Russia.


    Reality is much of the world doesn't care if Ukraine win or lose and most of Africa and Asia are routing for Russia.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Every military warehouse in Western Europe should be seriously depleted because it is all going east.

    That sounds frightening, let's hope that isn't the case.

    If Ukraine are faltering with the support it has received, I'd hate to think Russia not only wins here as the guy on Twitter mentioned but then would face a depleted Western front.

    Beverly Hills, California



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