Russia - threadbanned users in OP

South Africa: Has a more diverse population than Nigeria. Would expect most of the white population + much of those non-aligned with the ANC to be less predisposed to Putin or a campist mindset.

India: There is a lot less resentment towards the west at play here than you might think. India, and this started well before Modi, has strengthened ties with Russia and not just economically. In past polls the population has had favourable views of both the US and Russia. Which makes it a bit of an outlier (see below). Although often grouped with the other brics as a projected counterbalance to the west India is strongly aligned with the west against China. The populace has a more negative outlook on China vs polls re: attitudes toward western countries where views have been generally mixed to positive.

https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-orf-foreign-policy-survey-2022/

On the face of it this seems like a lightening arrest but all the camera angles suggest it is well thought out and choreographed. Propaganda?

Two IRIS-T SLS SAM systems, a short-range version of IRIS-T SLM, have been handed over to Ukraine. They're part of a commitment of 22 total such systems by the German government.

IRIS-T SLS is in use with the Swedish armed forces and consists of simply of a quadruple missile launcher mounted on a Swedish BV 410 articulated APC, meaning that it's able to keep up with advancing mechanized forces, so that should improve air cover for some of the ongoing offensives, especially once more systems get delivered. What's more, IRIS-T SLS uses the unmodified IRIS-T missile that is also used on the Eurofighter, which means additional missiles should easier to come by than IRIS-T SLMs, which have a larger booster.

Source: Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government (bundesregierung.de)

(Word of caution, you're going to have to scroll a lot. That list is pretty massive at this point)

If you look at the point where they force him to the ground the cameras switch seamlessly as if everything was in place beforehand. Hard to see how this would happen if it was a spontaneous arrest.

That heavy battalion with the Challenger 2s has gone into action (probably their last reserve battalion for the offensive). I'd say something is definitely cooking at the moment.

Oh i agree, this is totally different from last year, but just making a breakthrough to the little pyramids would be a win at this stage

The Kharkiv offensive last year totally took the Russians by surprise, that not happening now, but seeing as going forward has been so slow for a long time its just seems things could be happening right now

Reports show that after capturing Urozhaine, Ukrainian's didn't stop and continued the attack south, which if true sounds good

My own theory and from reading is that Ukraine realise that Russian reserve forces have become critically low. And they don't have the reserves to maintain the southern front as it is and that a push now with their heavy brigades could potentially break through the lines.

UAF aren't stupid. They haven't been throwing their soldiers and armor into the fire for Robotyne and Urozhaine. Two tiny insignificant villages. Russia know full well that defending Urozhaine and then tactically retreating to a better line of defense, minimizing their losses and maximising Ukraines is the standard procedure and best practise. But they don't. We've seen Russians holding on to Urozhaine well beyond what was logically sound until they were forced to abandon the place on foot. At which point dozens of them were clustered out of existence. Every day we hear about Russians counter attacking like madmen on these small settlements. Burning through their reserves.

Now why is this? Russia aren't as stupid as we'd all like to believe either. Why aren't they simply holding their positions and retreating when it becomes too hot? I think the reason they're doing this is twofold.

1. They only have water at their backs. Unlike in the east where they can retreat towards Russia. Every meter they cede in the south is a meter less that they can hide their logistics from HIMARS and standard artillery. They need to avoid this at all costs.
2. They want to hold out until the proper bad weather takes hold. Then every meter they currently own is one more meter they can mine and place new mobilised men in. I guess then the hope will be that the West becomes bored over Christmas with Ukraine given the limited offensive gains.

You see many pundits decrying the lack of progress on the front and if Ukraine were to continue taking territory at their current rate it'll be over a year worth of slogging and I doubt they have that much men and material to maintain that tempo. But they know this and still they persist. I don't believe its fair to measure this thing linearly. It's a snowball. The beginning is the toughest part. Whether the snowball gains enough momentum remains to be seen.

Took them bloody long enough! The US gives the green light to Denmark & the Netherlands to send F-16s to Ukraine as soon as pilot training is complete: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-approves-sending-f-16s-ukraine-denmark-netherlands-2023-08-17/

A few of the channels that I watch had Ukraine using two tanks in part of the assault on Urozhaine, it's a cagey careful strategy, assault gain ground, remove equipment as the inevitable Russian artillery assault rains down, identify the artillery positions, Hiimars them and start again.

Without doubt, Ukraine have been looking to do two things, stretch Russian logistics, up and down the front and destroy their supply chain. If they can completely cut the Kerch bridge Russia will be in some bind. As with Virgil Russia have been throwing ridiculous resources to hold tiny villages, presumably if Ukraine gain some more ground all the way to the sea will be within Himars range. If that happens nothing will be safe for Russia.

Slower progress than hoped but not a failure

Seems to be gaining momentum at the moment

More good news and a another step closer to F-16s in Ukrainian hands.

Confirmed by BBC, though in all honesty these drone attacks in Moscow seem mostly to be failures, rarely avoiding being shot down. Moscow air defences probably best in the country? There need to be more successful hits to have a real impact. Maybe go for easier targets or choose less protected cities

As things stand currently, the counteroffensive certainly looks to have failed. There were broad territorial expectations before it began and the UAF are now rapidly running out of time to meet them. By the time winter kicks in, we'll be back to 6/7 months of stalemate, which will suit Putin.

The hope is there'll be a breakthrough somewhere by October but it's looking increasingly unlikely.

I'd say the plan originally was to get to Mariupol. Now I think they'd be happy or settle with Tokmak, which itself would force Russia to withdraw further south. Create a new grey zone.

The fcuk up is with the west in delaying supplying UAF with what they needed. Gave Russia ample time to mine the fcuk out of everything.