Sweden avoiding lockdown

I don't know, when Sweden itself performed a volte face, it doesn't seem like they were onto a winner.

Economically, they definitely weren't.

So you need to define what your success criteria are first.

If it happened again, very few countries would follow the Swedish model.

And do remember, the model they were chasing was mass infections for herd immunity not using vaccinations, which fell apart when coronavirus antibody counts started dropping off and reinfection occurred.

I suggest, as a new user to boards, it's worth reading the thread first as it's outlined in detail throughout.

Even GoldenGirl's post just before mine alludes to the differences.

But, as you're here, what do you think of Sweden's efforts to pursue herd immunity without vaccines? Was it successful?

Its just as likely that Sweden's health system being far superior to Irelands, has always outperformed it. Before during and after lockdown. Irish system has been in crisis for a quarter of century.

Another difference is Swedish culture largely follows rules and advise. Irish culture largely doesn't.

Actually it was you who claimed they didn't change their response, without any proof. The obligation is on you to show they didn't change anything but stuck to their original plan.

As I said they changed their law as one example, of their changing response. All that's needed is one example to void any argument they didn't change anything, but carried on as normal.

The cultural aspect will probably never be accurately quantified. Saying certain rules and regulations worked or did not work will rarely be provable.

"....Walking during COVID

One odd observation Prof O’Neill found was the amount people walk reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“A US-based study followed 5,500 people,” he explained. “It tracked them before and during the pandemic and there was 600 less steps per day on average. 

“It’s interesting because we talked about this excess death rate in the pandemic – an extra number of people who otherwise would not have died. 

“Maybe a factor here was less exercise might feed into that excess.” 

Prof O’Neill said many people in their 60s, people from working class backgrounds, and people with more psychological stress took less steps. 

“They must have been stressed [during the pandemic] and weren’t taking their exercise,” he said. 

The study also found walking overall is an extremely effective form of health treatment. 

“Lifestyle can be as good as any pharmaceutical intervention,” Prof O’Neill said. 

“There's a big rage now around drugs to decrease weight, but you just need to take more exercise – it's kind of obvious.” 

You can run a marathon on a treadmill....

The fact is that Ireland's lockdown measures directly reduced Irish people's activity levels over ~ 2 years. (& maybe longer due to lifestyle & habit changes, etc, etc).

This reduction in activity levels has impacted hugely on people's health (cardiovascular & other). This negative effect on people's health due to lockdown measures, allied with things like increased stress from being locked down, & postponed or cancelled health screenings & elective procedures, are very likely to be leading causes of our unusually high excess death rates both during & since lockdown imho.... e.g. people are still dying today as a result of our draconian lockdown measures...

Lockdown hurt Irish people's health & both cost & is costing a lot of lives. The prescribed 'cure' was likely much more harmful than the disease imho.

P.s. Sweden's low excess deaths and Ireland's high excess death rate now & since the start of covid should be telling people something significant imho!!

Ireland's health system was just as bad (if not worse) pre covid. These excess deaths are compared to that period. So the health service thing is a complete red herring imho.

I.e. the health service hasn't changed much, but lockdown changed people's lives, lifestyles & their health very much for the worse!

P.s. lockdown & it's resultant effects have lead to extremely high excess death rates in Ireland. Meanwhile, lax Sweden have the lowest excess death rates in Europe since the start of covid.

That hangover in our health service has been very consistently reflected in our excess deaths since early 2021 too.

For all our lockdowns throughout 2021 and into 2022, Sweden has had far fewer excess deaths in the last 2 years, and broadly similar before that. And their performance has at least equalled their neighbours like Norway, too.

Extreme policies require extreme justification - and with years of data its now very clear Ireland's strictest lockdowns in Europe didn't result in a better performance than Sweden. They were the wrong policy.

The excess deaths - do not appear to be age adjusted. So it is meaningless to make comparisons from them wrt policies, either to Ireland past or with other countries.

We did not have the 'strictest' lockdowns in Europe. In some countries, you needed signed paperwork to leave your home. France had curfews at times when we did not.

Assuming Swedish type results would have followed in Ireland or elsewhere from a Swedish type approach is an assumption made without foundation.

It was discredited in 2020 when England tried to follow something similar to Swedish approach and had to abandon it as hospitals started to fill up.

Irelands lockdown was never as strict as Frances strictest lockdown in 2020. If the study treats Irelands lockdown as being as strict as Frances when you needed paperwork to leave your house then it is not a reliable guide to "strictest'.

The stats arent age adjusted to take into account demographic changes over time within Ireland. Irelands relative profile to other countries is irrelevent. You dont seem to understand how excess deaths are calculated therefore you are misrepresenting the excess deaths stats.

Talk of 'extreme' is an entirely prejudicial premise.

England didnt change course due to political pressure. Another false statement. They changed course due to pressures on hospital capacity. The politicians tried to avoid locking down which was a costly mistake in lives.

There is therefore no evidential basis to state that Swedish results would follow elsewhere which is the implication in your post.

You're right, for a brief period there between May and June of 2020, and again between Jan and February of 2021, Ireland had the strictest lockdown of the 7 countries the tool let me select.

So over the course of three years it looks like we may have been the strictest for three months, maybe four. While counties like Austria, Greece, Italy had much longer periods of being the strictest. I have a feeling if I could add more than seven countries Ireland's figures would be diluted even more.

How does that clearly make Ireland the strictest lockdowns in Europe (that's your words not mine)?

In terms of the overall area under the curve, Ireland is fairly high in the EU table. While we were the very highest for a only short period of time, we tended to stay fairly consistently near the top throughout the pandemic.

We're now paying for it, sadly, in terms of high excess deaths.