A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Just spent last couple of weeks travelling around the US from Detroit to Chicago, NYC to LA and every plane is full to capacity.

Never seen airports so full in my 25 years of travelling to the country

Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in the US as it works to restructure it's debts.

Strange advice :

Irish people can deposit their savings in a bank abroad if they are not satisfied with interest rates at home, Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe has said.

...amazed how long it has taken to get to this point, how the hell have they prevented this from happening, since before covid!

Its destination was still set to a Ukranian apartment block.

Foxconn's adventures in India illustrate how India is not the next China for manufacturing.

If anything it's this manufacturing dependency on China that illustrates how insanely overvalued western tech companies like Apple are. The Chinese response to the financial crisis in 08 was a capital infrastructure spending spree, and another slowdown in western consumers will have China pivot again towards building domestic consumerism.

China had zero problem pivoting to a national structural building programme. I think I saw one stat whereby China used more concrete in a decade than the USA did in a century.

I worked in mining in the China fueled boom in Australia after 2008 which kept Australia out of recession.

There's a lot of denial in western economies and it's easier for governments to blame China for businesses offshoring production.

They've actually no shortage of labour. The work that they imported from western economies is also being reduced by their own efficiencies, something western economies fail to appreciate when you hear them talk about bringing work back from China.

The majority of efficiencies are stolen technologies from the west not homegrown ideas.

you have yet to explain how they will pívot to domestic consumerism to save their economy. What levers will they pull relaxed credit from the banks, tax cuts? How will people have money all of a sudden to boost the domestic economy?

They also have serious competition from other Asian countries in regards to manufacturing. There are major structural issues just look at the demographics withe a declining population.

china arguably has far more control over its money supply than other parts of the world, particularly since it largely owns its own banks, hence why they flooded their country with cheap credit, post 08, it potentially could do something similar, but im sure it would cause other, potentially far more serious economic problems, inflation etc, so fascinating to watch unfold...

So China will abandon its new 3 red lines policy and do a U turn and start flooding the market with relaxed credit and increase the money supply. And what then stops this increase in money supply going into savings or investing in property? It doesn’t automatically mean an increase in Domestic consumerism which is what the OP was saying that China will Pivot towards.

Aside from sub sahara africa the world world is facing some degree of population decline, even india.

And production bubble implosions aren't always the whole economy, although from the Irish perspective it can feel like it. Irish exporters never actually stopped adding jobs during our last recession.

Overall there is no saving population driven economic growth from failing when measured by growth. It turns into a game of which economies are most prepared for aging.

I don't agree with characterisation when it comes to China (without getting into Russia/energy policy). Don't think there is anything that special about Germany/its relationship with China vs the other European countries, and there seems to be a change in the air.

If anything the US, in particular US companies, went much more all in on China as supplier and a market earlier than Germany did. I think they outsourced more of the US based manufacturing faster in the 90-00s (the German outsourcing there sped up and came a bit later in 00-10s I think).

That kind of stuff in the Telegraph is a bit ironic as well. Within Europe you had the UK and the "golden relationship" era with the lovely CCP where the state nuclear company would be let build and run a UK nuclear power plant, and also telecom infrastructure would be supplied by Huawei. That is some amount of trust - much more than I think Germany ever placed in China. All seems to have gone done the old "memory hole" completely now though (as regards the UK Tories!).

Also, looking at this country, we are still (IMO) asleep and deep in the pre-Xi Jinping and pre Ukraine war era here as regards chasing + begging for investments from China. It's all good (apparently).

If I remember rightly we had actually built enough houses for real demand by 2002, that's when rents plateaued.

I remember one builder retiring early in 2006 telling me that when we started building houses for the lads coming to Ireland to help us build house it was game over.

its not just private debt….public debt has been increasing at a higher % than private debt.

I also think the notion that the world decided to super size property is misleading. Money found its way into the property market (along with other investments) due to central banks cutting rates and undertaking QE to stimulate the economy.

More money in circulation doesn’t always lead to an increase in inflation measured in the CPI because of this money finds its way into Assets and is not spent in the economy then it never makes it to the CPI. You could easily argue that the increase in public debt lead to lower rates on gov bonds and in turn increased asset prices including property.

The simple fact is that any increase in money supply whether via private or public debt will lead to inflation of some sort whether it is inflation measured by the CPI or asset inflation.