Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Russian artillery losses are mindboggling

I'm no solider but my understanding is Russian doctrine is based on overwhelming artillery dominance to saturate an area so their mechanized/armored forces move forward with infantry support. If their artillery is being shredded doesn't that pose a slight problem for their entire way of conducting war ?

Looks like it could be as much as six IL - 76 planes destroyed by the Ukrainian drones in Pskov airbase the other night. Great to see these airbases now being targeted.

Correction - It looks like 2 planes destroyed - bad translation from the initial 4 that were reported to be destroyed.

Ben Wallace resigned as Defence Minister

I wonder if there is anything else behind this? I guess we'll hear about it in the next few days.

It was announced he was going to resign ages ago whenever the next cabinet reshuffle happened, for personal reasons.

Sean Penn doc due out soon -

150 to 200 per week. I'd say the American satellites have a lot to do with it.

And the new Defence Minister is ... Grant Shapps, he of the multiple identities and get rich quick pyramid schemes. Words fail me.

Which governments have changed their tone on Crimea?

And when you state NATO tanks or F16's entering Crimea.... what's that all about?

In the vein of being realistic, a reminder that Russia has the GDP of Italy, a rapidly sliding national currency, and significant cracks showing pretty much everywhere. It's a very expensive war of choice for them, not to mention while being sanctioned to the hilt, hundreds of billions of their assets under lock and key, and their untrained 40 yr old frontline troops with 50 yr old equipment are now in a battle of survival rather than invasion, with a sea of mines doing most of the heavy lifting. With explosions now happening in Moscow, the "special faraway operation" is coming home to roost, the optics of which probably aren't going to sit well with most Russians no matter how indoctrinated they are.

They are on more of a timer than they were in the past.

I haven't see any chance of stance on Crimea from Europe?

Everyone ultimately expects the war to end or stalemate or freeze in some sort of talks, that's a given, the Arabs and others were speculating as soon as this winter, but ultimately it's up to the Ukrainians, and they are still gradually taking portions of their land back, whilst we see Russian mil bloggers losing it that Russian troop morale is dropping like a stone.

We know from leaks within Russia (e.g. payments after combat deaths) that significant numbers of Russian troops have died and been injured. Ukrainian figures for Russian dead are very optimistic, let's put it that way, but they aren't completely ridiculous. In 10 years in Vietnam, the US lost around 50k men, from estimates, Russia is at about 2 and a half times those figures in just a year and a half.

Of course to mention things are extremely difficult and challenging for the Ukrainians and indeed they have lost significant numbers of troops, but their existential battle for their national survival is a little different from Moscow's "poor people being paid to die in a hole" war.

I don't expect Putin to fall or be replaced, but it looks like they are going to have to make or be forced to make uncomfortable choices they certainly didn't envision in 2022 with their "3 day" operation.