A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

The reduced 9% VAT rate for tourism, hospitality and some other services will expire at midnight and return to 13.5%.

I think we're well past any Covid bounce.

Just google a chart for oil prices and you'll see the Russian invasion creating a massive spike. Saudi Arabia and others have been taking advantage of the spike by keeping prices elevated by reducing their supply too. In a previous decade Saudi Arabia increased production to undercut USA fracking so it's swings and roundabouts.

Putin could be gone next week and oil futures could collapse, but then post Putin chaos in Russia could make things worse.

But the increased taxes are amplifying any energy cost rises.

....and we re back to the neoclassical approach to economics, i.e. its always demands fault, heres reality, no its not, inflation can and does in fact also come from the supply side of our economies! again, we can clearly see this in some of the data we do have access to, certain elements of our economies are making out like bandits here, some experiencing record profits, energy companies etc.....

...it really is time for us to move on from this neoclassical childishness!

There are 2 factors that set a price: supply and demand

Supply of oil and gas is out of European control primarily, we do not produce enough.

So the only solution to inflation is to reduce demand, via interest rates.

If you dont raise rates, you will end up in hyperinflation like Argentina or turkey

of all the tripe you have posted that must be the worst, its like adding 1+1 and getting 50

If we were to apply the logic of MMT that you previously advocated then seeing as the economy has full employment and inflation the government should be increasing taxes and cutting spending and letting the private sector take up the slack at present. The MMT advocates are very quiet about this aspect at the moment as they know it would be political suicide to adopt such a policy at present.

Regardless of what economic camp people wish to sit in the simple fact is that economics is social science based on how people reactions to events. It’s not that the financial systems are overly complicated or any other BS like that which makes it difficult to predict the future as any system when broken down into smaller pieces is easy to understand. The element that makes it difficult to predict is the human element because we don’t always act on rational facts.

Take inflation we are seeing at present for example yes the increase in energy has had a big impact on inflation and it has worked its way into nearly every cost imaginable but that is not the only element for today’s inflation.

Take for example companies have raised their prices by more than the increase in inputs because they believe there will be further inflation over and above the increase caused by energy and they want to limit the number of price increases due to bad press. That’s a human decision which directly leads to further inflation that has nothing to do with energy costs.

once the belief exists that we are in a high inflationary period period people react differently which in turn leads to more inflation that has nothing to do with ‘push inflation’.

Once the inflation midset kicks in it spirals big time. With fuel going up again and more price hikes concrete products levy etc all in the media, inflation and prices rises will start again because as you rightly say its down to the human brain. Anyway remains to be seen what will happen yet, my bets it starts to tick up again even though the real economy is not looking too healthy and on a downward trend. The only way to kill the beast is demand destruction and high unemployment, hasty as it sounds I think that what's the CBs are trying to achieve.

I agree the only thing that may help is the fall in value of the RMB may lead to cheaper imports…but it is yet to be seen if China defends the RMB or not. If they don’t expect a lot of noise about import tariffs etc.

WTI hits the highest price for the year despite China's economy supposedly on the verge of collapse and a general global slowdown. Diesel prices will be shooting up in the next few weeks.

Where are your facts so?

The global economic slowdown seems, finally, to be lapping against Ireland’s shores. Although it depends which numbers you look at.

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/economic-clouds-are-starting-to-darken-just-as-budget-demands-get-set-to-peak/a1155992239.html

Services contracting all of a sudden, they were keeping everything up a couple of months ago. Looks like Germany is heading into something worse than " mild " if this keeps up.

There's already a word for it, it's called deflation. In the scheme of things it's very welcomed. It means the current high prices may not be baked in. If the CPI follows suit, it would mean prices will reduce. If they reduce back to pre-crisis/war levels, it means the inflation was transitory and not entrenched.

And yet people questioned why interest rate rises would help when its not consumer demand pushing it (rate rises are the only think CB's can do)

When the key items driving inflation (food staples & energy) are 2 key items people cannot exactly do without, interest rate rises would have less of an impact. This isn't people splashing out on those luxuries (food & energy) causing a massive demand and inflation.

And yet if the CPI follows the PPI and consumer prices actually reduce... what would you call it, entrentched?