Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Far too optimistic alas.

It’s the hope that they’d just give up and return home, but the current regime have no choice (in their heads) than to dig in and keep fighting. Ukraine need to fight them to the point where Russia might have to engage in “good will gestures” and withdraw, until eventually they “good will” themselves over the 1991 border.

I'd be careful, there's many different versions of AMRAAMS, the version with those distances can't be currently fired from the version of F16's Ukraine will be getting (according to comments).

Similar to the IRIS missile. Ukraine uses them, but there's 3 versions, Ukraine only received the short and medium range missiles but not the long range ones.

As the US and Canada already announced them, I'd suspect they are going to be ground launched from NASAMS.

You get it. As numerous posters have pointed out had Darkman/ Kermit been around during the Normandy landings he'd probably have said the allies were bogged down and should just negotiate with The Germans. What Ukraine has achieved thus far without air support is incredible. I fully believe the Russians didn't think the Ukranians would breakthrough the first line of defense. Russia is going to lose this war because every day their ability to wage war is being depleted as Ukraine gets more and more advanced weaponry, it's just a matter of when Putin accepts defeat. Putin was heralded as a master strategist up to a few years ago, but i think history will judge him in a far worst light than Gorbachev for this monumental geo political blunder that has made Russia a crippled and pariah state for years to come.

I didn't hear what they done with the Patriot batteries, what did they do?

Good video about what the F16's can and can't do for Ukraine. Very interesting with the HARM missiles that Ukraine already use. Because it's adapted to fire from their migs, it can only use 1 mode. When fired from an F16, it can use all 3 modes. Ukraine need to know the target location of the SAM site, when they get their F16's, they can just patrol and when the HARM missile detects a random SAM site, the pilot can then fire the missile.

Ukraine has made some significant progress in recent weeks, not as much as might have been hoped or predicted by some but certainly more than it appeared a month ago. There's been a giddiness about the progress from some people here over the last week which is quite similar to this time last year, and we're back to predictions of Crimea soon being retaken, etc. I suspect this is over optimism. However it's certainly not the total stalemate it appeared a month ago and there is a sign that things are shifting significantly. I'd say let's see where things are in November when winter is setting in:

They already have, but Putin won each time. Challenging Putin one by one they were easier to subdue. That's not to say that they didn't give Putin headaches, because they did, many times, especially Chechnya. To this day, there's an anti-Kadyrov movement in Chechnya. He has never been forgiven for changing sides turning from an anti-Russian to pro Russian stance. When they killed his father Akhmad ( they placed a bomb under a stand that was being built for him for him to review the Victory Day parade.) All of Chechnya rejoiced. Ramzan Kadyrov has 6 sons ( 2 adopted) and 6 daughter's and 3 wives. And to the best of my knowledge, they are all alive and well. And only for the support Putin gave Kadyrov, he'd be long gone too. As soon as Putin goes, I'd say that there will be big changes in the Federation. In each case, Putin managed to install a pro Putin government. Even today, this is very evident in Georgia, where there has resurfaced a protest movement to remove the pro Putin Prime Minister, who is seen to lean more towards Putin than European which the majority of Georgians favor. (shades of Maiden protests in 2014) For Armenia, I'm not too sure as I haven't ever been directly involved there, but I presume that its standard Putin operation, either start a separatist movement if there isn't one, or aggravate an existing one. Ensuring that the outcome is favorable to Russia.

To be fair, the posters goal is to hook people into replies like this, there's 0 follow up beyond the contrarian initial posts and no defending done on any of the points made as they fall apart immediately under the slightest scrutiny.

I think it's fair to say Russia's anti air systems (and possibly radars) are not up to scratch along the Kherson front.

The S-400 is not really designed to hunt cheap $5 million USD Drones. It's designed to kill Jets, Helicopters and large turboprop planes.

These Drones should be getting shot down either by OSA, TOR, Pantsir, Strela systems.

Or intercepted by Jets and Helicopters.

I was thinking it must be either that or some attempt at creating a "dazzle ship" style effect.

Both seem pretty desperate if so.

There is no defending needed. The reality is what it is. Not one point I've raised has been challenged because it's true. There is nothing "contrarian" about stating the actual situation.

What some posters want is everyone to engage in fantasy hopium and ignore reality.

If Ukraine manage to turn it around I'll be first here lauding their success. It hasn't happened yet. A few fields and villages isn't the type of success that will change the outcome of the war. Don't get me wrong, everything gained back is a plus but it's not enough so far.

To be fair Ukraine set it's own standard to be judged by. It was their own chief commander who claimed they would have taken Crimea by now in their counter offensive. They talked all of this up for 6 months in advance.

What we have had since is plenty of Ukraine propaganda/happy talk and very little to show for it on the battlefield. Yes, there are some small territorial gains but it's nowhere near enough and that's the issue.

More please

Ukraine's existence as a nation is under threat every day and night, simply keeping going requires a monumental national effort, which in itself requires high morale. The leadership have to be optimistic about their plans. They can't come out and say "hey Ukrainians, this war might last years and hundreds of thousands will die, oh and we'll probably never liberate Crimea". That's simply not a possibility in their situation.

They have defied the odds, they have also produced tempered goals, and they've also acknowledged setbacks.

It's not a political party making promises, it's a country fighting a war for it's survival. If they say they'll take Crimea in 6 months, good, I hope they do. But if they don't, I won't be holding it against them or celebrating it as a "failure".

Also people support Ukraine, which is being attacked as a nation, it's a very emotive issue, ergo people share their hopes and optimism. If someone says that Ukraine will defeat Russia in 3 months, I may not agree with it privately, but I understand why they are expressing that.

Ukraine are making gains under extreme circumstances, it's fantastic. If they weren't making gains, it'd be a setback, but I'd still understand.

I've repeatedly noticed there not much difference between your views and those celebrating Ukraine's lack of progress online.

We can only guess what the motivation was.

Targeting systems on the drone. Some half arsed thought of protection from actual strikes or some bored personnel testing satellite surveillance systems of the Ukrainians.

Or as proposed above just being told do something with whatever you have to hand but do something.

You'd imagine now Ukrainians will arm some drones with incendiary devices now to take advantage of this.

Keeps the newly mobilised busy I guess and away from the vodka.