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Your prefered QF

2

Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    France

    we've declined big time since then

    Based on what?

    Again, for someone demanding evidence you are just making stuff up based on your insanely negative vibes. Ireland had one of the most comfortable 6N wins in history with the most match points ever accumulated. They have played all of 1 game since with a first string team and even then were missing our starting 10 and had our best player on the bench.

    I haven't missed any of the warm ups. Though I find it amusing you think a 24 point win over an utterly dreadful Australia team is "destroying" them and a 19 point win over England is nowhere near good enough. This is ignoring France absolutely scraping a 3 point win at home over Scotland also. You have just got lost in a hole of your own negativity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    New Zealand

    So that’s why they were like that with some of the Munster fans too? Very interesting contribution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,084 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    France

    Ireland, France, SA and NZ could all beat each other on their day. I can't see anyone else touching them. Argies best of the rest followed by Scotland I'd say.

    I'd prefer NZ in quarters and France in final where the pressure will be crushing on them. Much like it was on NZ in 2011 where they very nearly lost to a French team they had hammered in the group and who had also lost to Tonga.

    That said, NZ are the one side that if the click could beat us completely out the gate. And everyone else too. You kind of have to hope they don't fire or nobody will beat them. They still convert more chances into points than anyone else.


    Edit I obviously voted France for quarters in this thread previously which shows I've changed my mind and can't call it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Based on what?

    Based on performance. In our last 4 games we've stuttered passed England x2, Italy and Samoa. Had we come up against a good side in the warm ups, we would have lost heavily. In a way I wish that had happened, because judging by the comments here, we're in need of a good wake up call so that people might actually open their eyes to our poor form. I just hope our coaches aren't as blind to our issues and are actually working on solutions. If we don't start playing well quickly, we're in for a very rude awakening against South Africa and yet another early exit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,458 ✭✭✭kuang1


    New Zealand

    I really hope I don't come across to you as condescending, but I pity your attitude.

    I hope it's not an accurate representation of how you approach other aspects of your life, because if it is then happiness will forever elude you.

    Your attempts to support your view are conveniently selective to say the least.

    We are fortunate enough to be supporters of a team who are number one in the world going into a world cup, reigning 6 nation and grand slam champions, and who's last defeat came away to NZ in the first test of a series that we went on to win.


    To NOT enjoy where we currently are, and entertain the possibility of doing better than we've ever done in a world cup is utterly, utterly sad. I feel for you dude.


    And hey, it could go all tits up for us. It could.

    But it also might not.

    Try thinking about the second option for a little bit. It's a nice feeling.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    France

    In our last 4 games we have had our complete first choice team out once. Also 13, 16 and 19 point wins are simply not "stuttering past" someone no matter how many times you say it. You appear to have an utterly contorted view of what a comfortable win in international rugby is. Ireland have not lost full stop in over a year, so the farcical idea that if we came up against any good time we would lose heavily is frankly not worth addressing further.

    The fact you'll happily rationalise away much worse results from the supposedly far superior France is all the proof that is needed that you are obsessed with your narrative and don't care about the reality.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    France

    I dunno, TRC

    19 point win for Ireland = “stuttered past”.

    24 point win for NZ = “destroyed”.

    That’s a huge swing.

    Had we come up against a good side in the warm ups, we would have lost heavily.

    This is one of those things people assert to be true knowing they won’t have to provide any evidence.

    But you must mean something in the region of 24 points, right?

    We’ve only ever lost by that margin under Farrell once. In Eden Park where NZ have never lost a game in the pro era.

    Can you remember what you suggested after that game? Wasn’t it something about the team being mentally weak?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    We are fortunate enough to be supporters of a team who are number one in the world going into a world cup, reigning 6 nation and grand slam champions, and who's last defeat came away to NZ in the first test of a series that we went on to win.

    See, this is why the rest of the rugby World laughs at us. We harp on about our achievements between World Cups and anoint ourselves as the best team in the world and then invariably flop at the World Cup when it really matters. And judging by our current form, that's exactly where we're headed again. We once again peaked while other teams we're preparing for the World Cup. The reason everyone is being so defensive is because deep down they know I'm right.

    Tell me, if we're as great as you say we are, why do the bookies have us as 4th favourites?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,084 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    France

    Very little difference in odds between the top 4 teams. 3/1 for France and new Zealand, 7/2 SA and 4/1 Ireland.

    10/1 for 5th favourite, 20/1 for 7th favourite.

    Bookies have us in the mix for sure



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    France

    If we would get beaten heavily by any good team why on earth are our odds so short?

    No one is "harping on" about our achievements, you are just being ridiculously and absurdly negative and completely ignoring them. Even just highlighting the incredibly brief period we were ranked number 1 before the last world cup is an incredibly stupid comparison if you put even 20 seconds into looking at the two situations. It's lazy doom-mongering.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,192 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    A vote for Namibia here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,765 ✭✭✭Shehal


    France

    The jokes on the rest of the world though as they come from inferior rugby nations. Our current form is being based on us rotating our squad to look at individual players and give them a chance to show what they can do while also making sure we peak at the right time, we are literally doing what you are asking for and preparing for the RWC and now all of a sudden results and performances are most important...dont you see the irony in you're post, what do you want a great performances & results or preparation for the RWC...you confuse me on this occasion.


    No you are very wrong, in fact its worse because you could at least be a bigger man and just accept this "peaking to early" theory isn't going to materialise but ofcourse you wont, like a dog with a bone with that theory.


    Because bookies take alot more into account than just performances on the field slick, the fact you even bring this up shows you dont have much understanding of how bookies work so why even use it as a point? That's usually the last go to line for a despite Ireland detractor, it's the "hey, I cant think of anything rugby related to bash this team so ill come up with baseless theories and bookies odds".



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    The jokes on the rest of the world though as they come from inferior rugby nations

    Wales, Scotland, Australia and England aren't inferior rugby nations. They're nations that have actually won knock out games at World Cups. Our best ever finish at a World Cup is the same as Canada's.



  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Dean Brief Aftershave


    New Zealand

    2023 New Zealand are absolutely muck and I think France will win the World Cup.

    I'd rather face France later in the tournament when the pressure is on and the French fans get on their back.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    France

    I see we've gone from matches 5 months ago being irrelevant to somehow matches 32 years ago being relevant.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    World Cup matches are literally the most relevant. Something Irish rugby could do with learning.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    France

    I'll happily take our record over the last 35 years over Scotland's thanks. Because I'm actually able to take joy out of successes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    New Zealand

    That’s because you are a fan of rugby and Ireland, unlike the person you are responding to. Their only joy is in Ireland losing. Which explains the bitterness when we lose rarely.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,458 ✭✭✭kuang1


    New Zealand

    "are literally the most relevant"...

    ... "to my argument, otherwise it totally collapses" 😂


    I think my favourite from you so far today is the "deep down you know I'm right" one.

    Take a day off TRC. Or maybe there's a lotto winner somewhere that needs reminding that the next winner after them won more than they did.



  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    Where does this idea that the rest of the world laughs at you/us come from?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    France

    With all the injuries they've suffered (N'Tamack, Baille, Willemse and Danty), I'd currently lean toward preferring France.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    France

    I’m genuinely curious if you still think this team are mentally weak?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭Sanjuro


    France

    Listen, Ireland's performance at the World Cup is entirely dependent on vibes. And specifically, your own vibes at any given moment. All facts and evidence are null and void.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    New Zealand

    This is a tough one. And my perspective may change over the next few weeks, but right now I’d rather NZ. I think our style works well against them and they are a bit up and down still. But France are a funny side in that they can lose focus and/or concentration quite easily and be vulnerable. The problem is you just don’t know when that might be. We can beat both, but I’d fancy our chances better against NZ as things stand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Given how rattled they were under the pressure in the GS decider, I'd say there's definitely a frailty there. But ultimately we'll find out in the quarter final when they're faced with France or NZ



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    New Zealand

    I’d agree there is some fragility there. But I think that’s understandable. The likes of England and SA have this innate confidence because that’s part of their national identity, plus they’ve grown up watching their teams deliver in big pressurised games. The more you see it, the easier it is.

    Ireland hasn’t exactly got a long history of that. It’s really only been this last generation or so that have built up to a point to have the goods to back it up. It takes time to build that innate confidence. It’s not just a switch that can be flicked. Sadly, you can lose confidence quickly, but building it up is a lot harder and a lot slower!

    That said, I think France can be jittery too. Again, I think that’s a cultural thing. NZ can be as well as they have started to see their aura fade before them. Being the generation in place for that is going to hurt and I don’t think they have that general cultural confidence thing at all.

    SA and England are the only 2 countries I’d associate with that sort of confidence. And England don’t have it right now for obvious reasons. Which is one of the reasons I reckon that this RWC is well set up for SA. A team that have won just a single Rugby Championship in over 10 years. It’s crazy to think they could have more RWC titles in that time than anything else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    France

    Given how rattled they were under the pressure in the GS decider, I'd say there's definitely a frailty there.

    "They" being the English side that came to Dublin in 2017?

    Completely agree.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Nigzcurran


    New Zealand

    Avoid the home team/ref at all costs plus we know we can beat NZ



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    we know we can beat NZ

    We know we could beat 2022 NZ that also lost to Argentina before they replaced their entire backroom team and weren't very good. The NZ team now is a formidable outfit who stormed their way to the Rugby Championship. Very difficult to see us beating them at a World Cup.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,765 ✭✭✭Shehal


    France

    Do I need to show you the rankings again?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    France

    They won a truncated Rugby Championship (3 games) where they played SA once at home. In a "return" fixture in Twickenham, South Africa made them look very ordinary.

    They may of course beat us in a QF, but we should by no means be fearing them as "formidable".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    France

    It's unfortunate that we have consistently ended up playing teams that are in the habit of turning it on against us. If we had played SA in 2019 for example, I think we would have performed much better than we did vs NZ. So naturally, the two teams that have plenty of history of walloping us are our two options. With Argentina likely waiting in the semi.

    France won't have Clerc this time out tho, so I'd go with them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    New Zealand

    The problem with this logic is that it applies the opposite way too. NZ haven’t beaten us. SA haven’t beaten us. This French side lost their last game against us. None of those 3 “know” that they can beat us any more than we “know” we can beat them. The gap between each of the top 4 is very small. Which I’m sure you’ll agree is a positive thing.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    France

    It's pretty easy to argue that Irish rugby has been on a general upward trend pretty much since the game went professional, imo. And given that upward trend, we'll eventually win a RWC QF.

    Just like we eventually beat the All Blacks, won a series in NZ, won a home GS, won back-to-back 6 Nations, won a series in Australia, won a Test in SA etc.

    Let's just hope that QF win comes this year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,186 ✭✭✭Lost Ormond


    I wouldnt say since game went pro. Late 90s still were not great. Lens and having to qualify for 03 really threw the IRFU and that kicked many changes into gear and upwards really from then

    Yeah i will be happy with finally breaking the record of not having won a knock out game in a world cup. dont care who against or how just as long as it happens



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    France

    Ya, early 2000's maybe more accurate, took us awhile. It's been pretty much 2 decades of upwardly trending since then.

    I honestly think once we win a QF, the the monkey will be off our back. A bit like our record vs NZ since Soldier Field.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Rankings don't mean anything. If they did we'd be favourites.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    It's pretty easy to argue that Irish rugby has been on a general upward trend pretty much since the game went professional, imo.

    Yet the closest we got to a semi final was in 1991.

    And if you look at the last 12 years, we actually haven't been getting any closer. 2011-Lost by 12 in the quarter finals. 2015-Lost by 23 in the quarters. 2019-Lost by 32 points in the quarters. That doesn't suggest progress to me.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    France

    That's why I said "general upward trend". Not "upward trend only in Rugby World Cups".

    Ultimately, the argument you're making is a similar one that could've been applied to NZ prior to 2011.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    New Zealand

    I love how you take whatever metrics suit your position and ignore all other ones. Irish rugby has been in a very definitive upward trend for the last 20 years or so. This is literally the only monkey still on our back. We’ll break it eventually. It may not be this year but it will happen. And it’s okay to enjoy all the other stuff in between.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,186 ✭✭✭Lost Ormond


    Yep this exactly.

    The 90s was the grimmest decade ever for irish rugby bar a couple of one off wins over england we are pathetic and the 00s in every way were so much better be it provinces, internationally and pretty much every other area of the game here as well



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Nigzcurran


    New Zealand

    Ladies and gentlemen may I introduce Mr Negative Nelly!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    That's why I said "general upward trend". Not "upward trend only in Rugby World Cups".

    Apologies. If I was to be accurate, I should have said, Ireland are on an upward trend, except when it matters most, where we've actually been getting worse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    France

    deleted post



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,424 ✭✭✭Dave_The_Sheep


    France

    I personally preferred the 90s. We were a proper rugby team then, with a massive ... eight? ... wins to our name in the decade in the Five/Six Nations. Not to mention those incredible draws.

    We've all be downhill since then.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    France

    New Zealand were respectively knocked out of the RWC in the:

    1995- Final

    1999- Semi-Final

    2003- Semi-Final

    2007- Quarter-Final

    By your logic, a nosedive in form "where it matters most"

    And what happened in 2011? And 2015?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Nigzcurran




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    And what happened in 2011? And 2015?

    They stopped choking and started delivering



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    France

    So you agree that preceding performance in a tournament need not be a destined trend?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Of course. But the recent form of ourselves and our likely opponents suggest our trend will continue.



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