What do you think the Winter of 23 to 24 will be like?

I hope it's dry and cold. The night sky last night was wonderful. Hoping for many more of those.

The 10 days of cold and frost in mid December last year were amazing. I had never seen so much rime frost before. The fog was soupy too.

Potentially I think a disaster of a winter for those hoping for cold. Our only hope is the qbo is in its easterly phase and hopefully we get a modoki el nino....... that could lead to a very decent winter. So it could be a case of win or bust.

Oh I'd very happily accept 3 winter months of calm, cool and cloudy weather versus less cool, windy and wet. The latter is hell for me.

The days are short anyway and there's a severe lack of daylight so I'd rather dry, calm and dull. Nothing worse than weeks or months in end of the roads and footpaths being constantly damp or wet. Yuck.

I'm not sure about your prediction.

All I ask for any winter is one decent cold spell lasting 7- 10 days with snow . Last December's cold spell was nice just a pity it lacked snow . But that spell of cold was better then nothing and I loved the frosty mornings.

Yeah the ECM seasonal is showing a strong -NAO anomaly for winter 2023-24 along with Meteo France and CanSIPS also showing the same which would be conducive to a cold winter. There is little skill in these models especially this early on. However, you have to wonder what is making them show this?

Like here's a summary of the "drivers" or things I look at.

QBO will be in its easterly phase. This is said to be associated with years where the North Atlantic jet stream is weakened and an increased risk of sudden stratospheric warming events. However, there's lots of exceptions you can find to this and I've never thought very highly of it.

ENSO is a strengthening El Niño. This is said to be associated with either mild Atlantic onslaught winters - particularly if it's a strong event - or backloaded winters where the risk of -NAO increases later in winter. El Niño winters also have a higher frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events than La Niña or indeed ENSO neutral, this could be related to the backloaded winter theory. Where the El Niño is distributed can also have an effect on the weather - when it occurs in the central Pacific we call it an El Niño Modoki/CP Niño. A Modoki Niño historically coincides with more blocked winters than Atlantic onslaught ones. 2009-10 is the most renown example but there are others such as 1940-41 and 1968-69. So far there's been little evidence in the SSTs for a Modoki Niño with the east Pacific well into super Niño territory whilst the central Pacific is at moderate levels. Saying that, there has been a cooling in the east Pacific but that's not saying much when the SST anomalies there in recent months have been in excess of +3.0C! Weak is +0.5-1.0, moderate is +1.0-1.5, strong is +1.5-2.0 whilst super/very strong is greater than +2.0C. The CFSv2 has been consistently showing a significant cooling through the autumn in the east Pacific with a slight strengthening in the central Pacific. This does not necessarily mean it's going for a modoki however as the difference in anomalies is barely within +0.5C in its forecast. We'd want a more significant contrast than that to fully say it's a modoki. More basin wide than modoki if its forecast is correct. El Niño in its current state probably favours a zonal winter.

Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic can change a lot in the space of a few months so what I say right now does not translate to what will happen then but for the sake of this post, I will mention them as they are the thing I rate most when looking for thoughts on winter. The North Atlantic as it has been all year remains in an exceptionally warm state, unprecedented in the satellite era in fact. This goes two ways - without a cold blob to blow up cyclogenesis, the jet stream can be weakened with the warm SSTs because of the lower contrast. Whilst the warmth in the ocean provides a lot of energy for rain and hurricanes, this does not translate the same to extratropical Atlantic cyclones. They would rely on cold plunges into Newfoundland and the eastern seaboard. On the other hand, if westerly winds do occur, they would be even milder than usual and a Bartlett high type winter ala 1988-89 would probably smash mild records. Any northwesterly winds or polar maritime incursions would also be heavily modified compared to normal than they already are.

The stratosphere cannot be looked at until November at its absolute earliest as the stratospheric polar vortex is only developing from its summer hibernation (yes the SPV was not the reason why we had a stinker of a summer after June in case one says though there has been evidence that the stratosphere itself could have fed into the Greenland blocking through July and August 2023!).

Somebody posted the month by month NAO for the ECM seasonal on another forum and that December is +NAO whilst January/February and indeed March are -NAO. That gives me a sense of stratospheric disruption... if you pardon the pun.

Anyway all seasonal models are low skill and should be used for only speculative reasons or for fun.

It's nice to ponder, but as this Summer showed us it's best not to give these long range seasonal models too much credence. Even if they are right it could be a west based NAO set up which just means cold and wet rather than cold and white!

Another perspective, wouldn't be digging out the toboggans from the back of the shed/attic just yet!

This weather is torture.

Honestly great. My stove is lighting, I'm drinking a whiskey, it's getting dark. This is my time of year.

To be honest that's not completely out of the question given the fact we are in an El Niño which historically tends to correlate with "backloaded" type winters where the coldest weather occurs later. Though February 2018 did have some colder weather and of course the BFTE to end it, it was not an exceptional month by any stretch. Same with Februaries 2010 and 2013 which were a bit colder, especially 2010, but this was more from persistence than anything notable. They did have some snowfalls but mainly light and would hardly be considered very snowy months. February 2009 did have a snowy, rather cold spell at the beginning but this was relatively short and the second half of the month was very mild guaranteeing a milder than average month. February 2021 was rather similar in this aspect but the second half of that month especially was extremely mild and I think it can be forgotten just how stupidly mild it was given we have had endless mild Februaries in recent times. 2019, 2022 and 2023 were all way up there in the mildest on record. 2021 would also be there without the colder first half. It also just happens that a lot of recent years have been dominated by La Niña globally since 2020 until of course this spring just gone which tends to correlate with frontloaded type winters, the opposite to El Niño, though the link is somewhat tenuous. 2019 was also during a weak El Niño but was dominated by a strong stratospheric polar vortex which put the curtains on any chance of cold from the north or east.

What I'm basically saying with all that waffle is, it's been a very very long time since we've had a genuine very cold, snowy February. Even 1991 had a milder second half. Have to go back to 1986 probably but even that one wasn't all that snowy after some light snowfalls in the east around the 5th/6th.

As far as I can tell, the prime reason why a lot of the seasonal modelling is singing from the same hymn sheet with regards to a very blocked February would because they show some kind of major sudden stratospheric warming event through December and January with Ural blocking setting up through November and December. You would think with such a big block, they would be projecting a split type SSW event rather than a displacement which the latter is prone to the SPV returning back to norm quicker than a split and may even be followed by a strong SPV event as happened infamously in winter 2018-19. Stratosphere forecasting cannot be done months ahead, much like our actual weather. It's certainly interesting though to ponder out loud.

I still very much hold a pessimistic view going into this winter that it will be a mild and possibly very wet one with the energy in the warm oceans. El Niño has now reached strong criteria as the ocean and the atmosphere are now in sync with one another allowing the central Pacific to take off. Not great for a blocked winter. The eastern Pacific has seen a cooling but not enough to say the chances of modoki (central based) are increasing which would be better.

I fear a total horror show this winter for fans of cold weather. I think December in particular could be very mild. Wouldn't be surprised if we don't see even a single frost during December . I'm already mentally preparing myself for a very mild wet perhaps stormy crappy unseasonable Xmas lol.

I think El Nino will make for an interesting 23/24

Re WINTER 23

“El Niño years have a tendency to have a mild wet and westerly start to winter (Nov-Dec) and a colder, drier end to winter (Jan-Mar) across most of northern Europe,” says Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK’s Met Office.

Re 2024

The effects of the onset of El Niño tend to lag behind by a few months.

“There are interesting lagged effects for example in China where we expect heavy summer monsoon rains and flooding following a big El Nino,” Professor Scaife explains.

There is also an increased chance of ‘hotter than normal’ temperatures next year.

The last time a strong El Niño was in full swing in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. A big event at the end of this year would give a high chance of breaking temperature records once again.

Tonight ( where some parts might get a bit of frost) will probably be colder then most nights this coming winter lol. I'm expecting the worst this winter but hoping it won't be as bad as I think.

Another possible reason to believe this winter will be mild and wet is the high water vapour content over the arctic which originated from the Hunga Tonga eruption in January 2022 and has since spread to the high latitudes. The water vapour would lead to a cooling of the stratosphere i.e. an intensified stratospheric polar vortex going against the idea of El Niño and heightened risk of perturbed SPV in the second half of the winter.

Reminds me of the anomalous positive Indian Ocean Dipole episode in autumn 2019 which put curtains on any chance of disrupting the SPV in winter 2019-20 allowing it to just build and build into a monster stubborn trough over the arctic enhancing the westerlies.

.. a foggy October please!

Are you basing that on today's weather?

I'm sure he is basing it on the fact that more often then not these days temperatures are above average. Today being a perfect example. More warmth likely for the next while. All told doesn't fill me with any confidence for this winter.

If it's bucketing sleet and snow all winter I will come and hunt you down for lying to me. ..time to dust off the suncream 🤣

I think we'll have a slow start to winter mild November with wet and windy spells at times ,December will see more high pressure so frosts and ice at times , January will probably be the coldest month with snow at times , February will be slightly milder than January but more in the way of frosts and more potentially windy spells and if I can for March it will be average , all predictions of course

CanSIPS October update for winter hot off the press and again it's going for a very blocked winter with a southerly tracking jet stream. The January and especially February anomalies would be conducive to cold and snowy months. Have to ask once more, what is this model and the others from last month's runs seeing that we don't..

Wonder if any others will hold sway with their blocking pattern with this month's runs. We shall know by mid-week next week. Not that they're of any use in determining how this winter is going to play out. It's just interesting to ponder.

Milder than usual