Russia - threadbanned users in OP

The train line running through the southside of Tokmak is vital. Seems to be the only line to Melitopol.

If Ukraine get through the lines and as far as Tokmak, I think they'll skirt round it and go for the coast. Yes it's a big risk in a narrow salient if you don't secure the flanks. But Russia doesn't seem to have any offensive capabilities. If they can prevent a counter attack from Tokmak and take Polohy on the other side, then it's open fields with few settlements and roads. I can see them opening up a 30km wide salient all the way to the coast. They can be patient over the winter and Tokmak will be much easier to retake next April along with Melitopol and Kherson Oblast.

Lol "few Allies outside of western Europe and North America" 😂 . I mean that's only pretty much EVERY European country ( all the most prosperous economies east of the Atlantic) and the undisputed heavyweight champion of everything military: The US. Not to mention the likes of Australia, S.Korea , Japan. But nevermind all that.

Russia has all the tinpot dictatorships and banana republics on its side. And which of them are willingly supplying hundreds of billions of aid out of their own pockets? Think single digits. Low single digits. The lowest single digit.

it is 30km from Robotyne to Tokmak, thats like O'Connell St. to Greystones, its taken the bones of 3 months to approach their first of several lines, which will presumable get more intense. The casualties /km must be horrendus already

(https://archive.ph/Ad1qW#selection-1697.234-1700.0)

Hits several of the most recent bingo card spaces.

First confirmed loss of a Challenger tank. I think there's only been 6 Leopards confirmed destroyed so far. That's 7 in total, with up to 31 Abrams arriving this month, it's pretty sustainable. No doubt the 31 Abrams is just the start. Pretty much everything else the US has announced has been supplied on a continuous basis (Bradleys, Strykers etc...)

+1

When I see these newly minted Military Juntas in the The Sahel lean heavily onto a pro-Russia vibe, I can't help but compare this in my mind to a new passenger bording the Titantic right after all the lifeboats have already left, and the bridge is underwater. It's the kind of relationship that will barely benefit the Russians, and most certainly won't benefit them.

Beyond these, who are Russia's friends?

South Africa: Steadily becoming a failed state, with de-facto single-party rule by the ANC. Beyond the fiction that is BRICS, the South Africans offer little to Russians beyond giving Putin's lads a rat-run to escape to when things evently go to hell. South Africa herself is just making it increasingly harder to get out of the hole they are in, especially if they expect Russia to help there.

North Korea: Experts at keeping WWII-era Soviet tech running, these guys are at least a technical asset, but are also the worlds most isolated pariah state with a slow-burning famine currently underway. North Korea are highly dependant on Russia for their survival, but Russia get relativly very little out of this.

Iran: Mostly useful for cheap drones. Iran themselves are pretty isolated and their support for Russia opens no more doors than even North Korea.

Syria: Reeling from civil wars, Isis occupations and also side-lined for being a dicatorship, Syria is mostly useful as somewhere to place a naval base. They have little else to offer Moscow apart from potental cannon fodder as was rumored at one stage last year.

Armenia: The Nagorno Karabach confict became a sort of rehersal of Soviet tech vs. NATO tech fighting we're now seeing in Ukraine. Azerbijan backed by Turkey and their tech, went up against Armenia and their Soviet surplus. After that war Russia remained as a "Peace-keeping" force on behalf of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabach but ths is very much related to how much control Russia still has in this old Soviet republic. The Russian's even own the public railways there. Despite this, Armenia has been trying to warm up to the EU & NATO, meaning the Russians will probably loose this ally, especially if they are unable to prevent an Azerii takeover of what is left of Nagorno-Karaback.

India: Where to even start with these guys. For the world's largest democracy they are really crap at picking sides when a fellow democracy is under threat. India has a history of being friendly to the Soviets. Soviet gear was often used by them when they were at war with Pakistan or China, and the Soviet Union would often be a supporter in these conflicts. But beyond nostaliga, I don't understand what India think they are doing by sitting on the wall and being friendly to the Russians now. Russia got a market for their oil here, but India only pay bottom-dollar for it, and there are no pipelines worth mentioning between them. There's no advantage to Russia beyond a friendly face at conferences. For India, it just damages their standing in the world.

China: By far their most useful ally, but also the most dangerous to them. China is their source for tech and weapons. Unfortunatly for Russia, this is Chinese-standard tech & weapons that will give them no edge at all with a NATO-armed Ukraine. By the end of this conflict China will likely have a signifigant foothold in much of Far-East Russia and if Moscow are very unluckly Beijing might even try to reclaim lost historcially Chinese land. China can and will let them fail, and then profit from the situation as best they can.

Beyond the above, we have tin-pot dicatorships smattered around Africa and South America, while almost the entire democratic world oppose Russia and support Ukraine.

Russia is not the Soviet Union. Russia is not a Superpower. Russia is an increasingly desperate and failing state that is trying to stave off its own extinction while somehow clinging onto a small cohort of petty kingdoms who haven't a clue what they are doing, or have little choice.

World Aquatics will allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in their events under a neutral flag.

World Aquatics will allow one Russian and one Belarusian athlete per event to compete at World Aquatics competitions as neutral athletes (with no relays).

In order to be eligible, athletes will need to meet a strict set of criteria that includes showing no support for the war in Ukraine and having no contract with the Russian or Belarusian military.

"Russia is not the Soviet Union. Russia is not a Superpower"

This is it really. It's just a very extreme version of the old 1900s empires lashing out against a changed world. Like as if instead of doing Brexit the UK decided to invade The Netherlands.

Trouble in Buryatia

Nobody can make sensible comments on the offensive unless they know how much resources Russia has left. There is great uncertainty about this, and Fintan O'T doesn't know either, so predictions are to be taken with a grain of salt. If someone does an inventory on Russian equipment I'll listen to their opinion.

Also Ukraine has destroyed most of their radar so they can't see where Ukrainian fire is coming from.

Agreed, by October we'll know how the 2023 offensive went. If they don't advance any further, I think that it will be considered as a failure by many and the Russians will be relieved considering the stat of their forces over the past 6 months.

If they are laying siege to Tokmak and have (artillery) fire control over the rail line that will be acceptable to most on the Ukrainian side.

If they can get further south and the salient is wide enough that they can safely/reliably exercise fire control over the M-14 coastal road, that would be seen as a success.

There probably isn't any point in pushing for the coast but not being able to push back the flanks far enough and to then get hammered by Russian artillery until next April trying to defend a thin strip of land.

Many analysts think that the first line of defences that has already been breached at Robotyne was the most difficult and that the remaining two lines will be easier.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/02/everything-is-ahead-of-us-ukraine-breaks-russias-first-line-of-defence-in-stronghold

But the Russians will be motivated to hold on knowing that the rains will save them. The Ukrainians will have to break through the lines somewhere or the Russians will be able to spend the winter creating new defensive lines further back and the Ukrainians will be confronted with the same again next year.