A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

This is where the sanctions against Russia really kick in, the failure of maintenance and engineering to keep their cash cow oil industry moving.

Venezuela even had to import oil recently because taking over private companies starved them of reinvestment.

The only good I can see coming out of all this is more will towards renewables investment.

I think it's more complex than following the price of energy. There's always a lag. Like Ireland, we've only recently seen almost all suppliers beginning to drop gas & electricity prices. That will take sometime to feed into inflation figures. As for business, they energy costs increased and decreased much more quickly, however you will have some businesses benefit from contracts, company X will buy from company Y for a set price for the next 12 months. Energy prices increase rapidly and company Y takes the hit, company X continues to sell at the same price to the public and only increases their price when their contract renews at the higher price. It's why some items in the shops didn't increase for months after the rapid energy rise. Flip side is when energy costs come down, company Y benefits bit company X still pays a higher price and so do the consumers.

It takes quite a long time for it to filter through to the inflation figure. You also have payrises given to offset the inflation, pay won't be reduced if we see a reduction in prices, so that's baked into the inflation figure for the future.

We have a war that's disrupted the energy markets, Germany is more effected than us because they became dependent on Russia, add to that the Saudi's actually reducing supply to maximise return, and yet the mantra is fiscal stimulus and moving statues.

Rate hikes are cooling anything, they're an extra boot on the neck.

Fiscal spending was required and I agree it prevented a financial crash…. Was it overdone probably if you look at it in hindsight but it was impossible to tell at the time.

if inflation rises yes Central banks will need to raise rates further otherwise inflation would explode due to the fact credit would be cheaper than the time value of money if they were to do nothing.

And yes to much inflation is way worse than a recession for the simple fact that recession will come afterwards anyway but the severity and duration would be way worse because you create a credit bubble by not raising rates and future spending would have been brought forward meaning the recession will last longer.

It could induce avoidable bankruptcy of businesses that could be investing in reducing their dependence on imported energy. Then governments across the zone have to supply unemployment supports all in the name of supporting a dubious rate rise orthodoxy.

Right now now households and businesses are fighting on two fronts, high energy prices while paying higher interest payments.

I don't have a link right now but a study I read found that the energy shocks in the 70s were less than 20% cause of the broader inflation. The overwhelming cause was the boomer driven expansion of the money supply. Rate rises to cool demand did work as a brake, but rate rises now are more like accelerant than coolant.

What's needed is more aggressive policy changes like higher taxation for empty units and vacant sites to induce supply.

Ironically it's the boomer generation who drive policy that sweats property assets like the Saudi's reducing oil output to keep prices high.

Absolute nonsense. Rate rises now are the only thing preventing runaway inflation. Unless you think Turkey is a good example to follow.

Turkey gave in to populism for years and refused to raise rates to tackle inflation as it would impact those in debt, and lo behold inflation continued to spiral until they realised basic economic principles cannot be beaten and you must address the supply-demand curve to reduce inflation. They have this year raised rates by 15% so far, much worse than if they had acted sooner.

Has history shown any examples of inflation just being wished away rather than credit rate hikes? If rates are not raised it becomes cheaper to borrow & buy now, than to buy later - which fuels demand further causing worse inflation. Are you saying the basic principles behind interest rates and their rising/lowering are defunct? Why don't the worlds central banks/economists/traders all know this?

US healthcare tech company Merative to lay off around 100 workers in Dublin.

US inflation expected to rise for the second consecutive month on Wednesday due to rising energy prices in August. You would imagine USD to get stronger with talk about further rate hikes making energy more expensive.

New data shows oil supply will be tighter as it looks to be heading for a 3 million barrel / day shortfall in Q4 this year

Not a great start to Q3.

I remember visiting Manchester a few years ago where there's a lot of new skyscappers that were pitched to the Chinese/Hong Kong market. I won't be surprised if there'll be many vertical ghost towers in the years to come.

Yep....almost everything I buy has gone up and gone up significantly and I would buy a broad range of goods and services

No, the money coming in hasn't gone up though.

Even my crisps.. I see few cents keep being added to the brand of crisps I eat...

100% some brands they are skimping in quantity, they reduce the size so pretend they didn't go up much in price.