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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,990 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I don't think it is genuine fear of a SF government here, it is the fear that it might be shown that to be competent as a Minister isn't that hard.

    Is there a job in the country that has the advisors and highly qualified civil servants backing up the principal office holder that a government ministry has?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,109 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Good post, I understand why SF supporters don't want them to into power with FF but bar a miracle its that or opposition again.

    Their is still a sizeable element out their who feel SF are to radical , SF can prove them wrong by going into power with FF and ideally have a successful go at it, once they are in and all these right wing Armageddon stories don't come through then long term that's great for SF.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    You beat me to it. We dontbeven have a centrist party... our furthered party to the right, are more interested in welfare increases for people that despise them, than tax cuts for early risers...



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,904 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    By international standards, FG are a right wing party.

    If you see them as left, that is because your own politics are very significantly to their right. It doesn't stop them still being right wing.

    You can't compare to the spectrum in the US (and indeed the UK these days) as they are the outliers by international standards; where you have a centre right party and a very very right party.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    How are they" right " soft 9n law and order. Hot the poor with a marina rate of tax of 50 percent over a pittance. As food as no property taxes etc... welfare wonderland. Thats your version of the right?



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,315 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    No, as L1011 pointed out the fact you're so much further to the right does not make the reality that they are right of center wrong; it's simply that your version of right is that much more right than the norm. For example if you think Tories are a center party then by definition there's very little space left to the right of them. However that does not make Tories a center party when comparing them with other parties in general as they are very much right; and the same applies here. FF/FG are right of center compared to parties in general; the fact you don't think they are right enough (and hence center left) is your personal view only.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    We need a tory like option here. Thats the point. We have zero choice for a party on the " right " the comedy scenario that could unfold all of a sudden; for fg in particular, if a right party formed here and fg left with the dilemma of actually starting to reduce taxes meaningfully or haemorrhage votes would be glorious to witness...



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,904 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The Tory party are very very right wing. That has been the point all along

    You are very very right wing and annoyed that the actual right wing party isn't as right wing as you. That does not stop them being right wing.

    Also, in most countries the right wing parties are anti property tax and the left wing parties pro. We're backwards for some reason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    I think there is very little difference between parties.

    Certainly FF and FG have been kowtowing to the liberal left for the past decade, with little consideration to any values that they might once have held. This means on wider issues they are unable to argue with the far-left ... to which SF have aligned themselves.

    Irish political parties are IMO mainly go from centre left to far left, weather you like how FG handles themselves in this regard is another matter, I'd argue that FG's minority government and this government are far more left wing than that of the FG/labour government from 2011 to 2016. (You can argue against this if you want but I don't think their is much point, it is just an observation).

    I think many people don't want to see this, and many of the die hard FG / FF voter will continue to vote for them as the believe them to be the parties of old.

    I don't see much change with an SF government, TBH nor do I see it with SD or LP. You might see the continued liberalization of things but large there's appoint when that becomes redundant (I'd have thought that would have happened at this point, but we come up with ever increase needs that are largely wants). That by the way is not to dismiss Education, Health, Housing, Employment and Social supports.

    I think at this point FG/FF need to split. This will mean them deciding to join other parties.

    There are clearly FG and FF politicians that would be more suited to SD or LP, while other more suited to SF and then others who should unite the two parties and potential offer a Centre Right alternative.

    I am not really sure why Renua want to define themselves as the Centre Party, they would have been better rebranding as The Conservative Party of Ireland, I don't see why it would be such a problem TBH, other than this morbid fear the Irish have of being considered conservative!


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,575 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I am not so sure about that.

    The UK and US would both consider FG centre left. I think thats pretty apparent and we all mostly agree.

    But then, which european countries would contend that FG are centre right? Considering that most countries have lurched to the right anyway...

    I think the euro focus has shifted in the opposite direction to what you suggest & that the majority of european countries would, therefore, also consider FG centre left.

    Not that it wholly matters. It's what the irish resident population think that counts.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Alexander Shulgin


    Highway to hell if they get into government , for **** Mary lou has to go to shadow figures for every approval ! As for the snowflake generation being taken in , please Google Maria Cahill & Paul Quinn , that's recent , go further back to Jean mcconville , 10 children orphaned , mcguinness may have plamassed paisley , on a lighter note Alan partridge nailed mcguinness when he described him as a clown without makeup



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,575 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    SF are a total disaster that will set the country back decades. But the new dopes that vote for them can't see it.

    Ask them why they are voting for SF and the best they come up with is that "They cant be worse than the current govt"....oh yes they **** can!

    Watch and see.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Alexander Shulgin


    Centre left by US standards perhaps , but I recall minister Noonan at the time of the 09 financial crisis saying vulture funds provide an essential service, I bet his kids didn't live through the terror of a vulture fund trying to repossess their home , Mr Richmond FG in phibsboro is cut from the same cloth ! Fair play to the Cork schoolteacher who travelled to Haugheys grave in Sutton to dance on it & call him all "C"s under the sun , it might still be on You Tube ,



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,575 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    SF seem more interested in giving people (borrowed) homes than enabling people to buy one for themselves.

    There is a balance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 Alexander Shulgin


    Totally agree ! All their promises can only be fulfilled through massive hikes in taxation, but if you're Slab Murphy you can own multiple properties and drive a top ofthe range SUV, despite never having worked a day in his life , but who Mary Lou describes as a "GOOD REPUBLICAN " , despicable , and another thing , how on her salary and her husband who's a gas fitter buy that "villa" on the cabral road , wakeup people !



  • Registered Users Posts: 985 ✭✭✭Fred Cryton


    Need to remember here that FG/FF/Greens are not far off in the polls what they got in the last election. FG is pretty much at the same level, while FF and Greens are both a few points down.

    Personally i think if SF get less than 30% of the vote, they won't get in. At the low 30's level then it's 50:50 between current govt and SF. They'd really want to be getting 33% plus to guarantee a SF/FF coalition. FF won't be able to ignore their democratic mandate at that level of support.

    Hopefully FF will put manners on them, take the justice and one of the finance portfolios and keep some semblance of normality. And the great thing is FF will be able to destroy SF from within by making SF seem part of the establishment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,990 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Need to remember here that FG/FF/Greens are not far off in the polls to what they got in the last election

    A year out from the last GE FF and FG were polling much higher. If the same thing happens in the run in to the next GE FF and FG would be in or around 5 to 6 points down on their current polling and SF 6 or 7 points up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,959 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Rotating Taoisigh are the new thing. Even if SF get in with FF, MLMD won't be Taoiseach for the full term.

    I was very surprised at the poll yesterday with FF, FG and Greens combined hitting 47%. Given some of the mad maths on here where people were talking about an overall majority for SF with 35%, does yesterday's figures mean no change?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,711 ✭✭✭StupidLikeAFox


    Genuinely curious as to what fine gael policies could be considered right wing?



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Yes. But the key point is that FF and FG were polling much higher then. SF made their Great Leap Forward by attracting a swathe of voters from FF and FG. But you can't increase the SF vote further by attracting the same swathe a second time; you need to attract another swathe. Which means that at this point you need to attract hardcore, rusted-on, dyed-in-the-wool FF and FG voters, the ones who didn't find the honeyed words and blandishments of SF attractive last time around.

    I'm not saying that's impossible, but it's a big challenge. The rolling average of polls currently has FF at 18%, which is close to their worst ever result (17.5%, 2011). FG are not much higher, on 20% which, again, is close to their worst ever result (19.8%, 1948). In this situation, peeling away another 5/6% of the FF/FG vote is not going to be easy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,990 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not saying it will happen Pere. Just saying that assessment was skewed. I have heard talk of ceilings for parties before (It was actually during the last election campaign) and that too turned out to be wrong.

    There are votes floating around out there and the trend is that FF/FG's vote share is falling for a long time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,959 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Here is a strategy for attracting another swathe of voters. Play to the gallery on the immigration issue.

    "“Portarlington is a dumping ground for asylum seekers, that’s what I’m being told.

    “The local hotel, closed down pubs, closed hair dressers, the developers buying up private houses and outbidding locals trying to get on the property market.

    “They’re in private houses in estates around the town; it’s been saturated – and I don’t care who comes down on me for saying this – that is a fact."

    “Some say (certain) countries of origin shouldn’t even be processed, like Georgia. There’s Georgians in Portarlington in emergency accommodation and they’re working full-time.

    “We’re paying for their accommodation, we’re feeding them, we’re giving them medical cards – and they’re working full time. It’s not on."

    A quite extraordinary rant. But you know who he is looking for votes from.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    A risky strategy, it might play well to their traditional base but risks alienating the newly converted young middle class. I think a SF government with a C&S agreement with FF is probably the best option for FF and FG at this point. It would be madness to go into government with SF as they would blame you for everything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,439 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The FT agree with you.


    What score would FG and FF have?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    FG would be significantly to the left of the pre-brexit conservatives. There is no economically right wing party in Ireland, certainly none that try to prioritise workers over long term welfare claimants. FG make a few noises about this sometimes (like having say a better jobseekers benefit with some relationship to what you were earning before), but we still have xmas bonuses for long term welfare.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,575 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The best option for FFG is to stay in power and have a third leg to support them. Exactly as they do now.

    Sub the Greens for the Soc Dems or a few indies.

    Its FF's election to own.

    They will decide whether SF get in or whether they stick with FFG.

    SF are nowhere near a majority & cannot get into power without FF enabling them.

    Most likley outcome is still that FFG close ranks on SF and stay in power.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,575 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    True.

    FG are the most "right wing" of the 3 main parties, but they are centre left by UK standards.

    FG are basically Labour in the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    I'd like to see this chart with all Irish political parties.


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It's not quite the same data, but I did find online an earlier (2019) version of that survey from the same source (Chapel Hill Expert Survey). British and Irish political parties are scored on the left-right economic scale as follows (Irish parties in bold):


    PBP/S: 0.4

    UK Lab: 1.94

    UK Greens: 2.12

    SF: 2.14

    SD: 2.33

    I4C: 2.75

    Greens:3.14

    Plaid: 3.36

    SNP: 3.44

    Lab:3.57

    Lib Dems: 4.47

    FF: 5.42

    FG: 6.42

    Brexit: 6.89

    Cons: 7.05

    Renua: 7.6

    UKIP: 7.73


    Bear in mind that this is 2019; we're talking UK Labour under Corbyn and the Tories under May, and both parties have shifted since then. From the FT chart it seems that UK Lab was about 3.8 and the Tories (after the Truss shift well over 9. I don't think there have been similar shifts with the Irish parties, at least not on anything like that scale.

    For what it's worth, the FF and FG scores here put both parties in the centre-right by comparison with European parties as a whole. For comparison, FG lies up almost exactly with La Republique En Marche, and a little to right of the German Christian Democrats. FF is a little to the left of the German Christian Democrats and is pretty much lined up with the Flemish Christian Democrats.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    I'd wonder if that is just historical for FG and FF, both have them have being heading more Lab, while LP is heading more towards SD, I put FF on around 3.5 with FG on maybe 4. I think their is a little historical bias in those figures.


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



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